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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Tropical Storm Nestor Lounge
      #100758 - Wed Oct 16 2019 01:23 PM



A persistent trough now located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico continues to become better defined, and as it has moved from over land to over very warm waters, we are now starting a lounge on this feature, likely soon to be tagged an Invest (probably 96L).

Recon has been tasked to begin flying missions into this system Thursday, if necessary.

As of this morning, NHC has upped odds of tropical cyclone formation to 30% within 48 hours and 50% within 5 days. Considering recent trends this could be conservative. Movement is presently northerly, with a forecast motion more definitively to the northeast later this week, especially if the system develops, and it looks increasingly likely to bring heavy, potentially flooding rain, to portions of the southern US regardless of development.

More details and pictures coming.

*NHC 10/16/19 2PM EDT TWO update has gone up to 50%/50%
*This feature has now been Invest tagged, 96L.
*10:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 96L is now PTC SIXTEEN
*2:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 SIXTEEN has become Tropical Storm Nestor

Edited by cieldumort (Fri Oct 18 2019 01:51 PM)


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IsoFlame
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 120
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Gulf Invest 96L [Re: cieldumort]
      #100760 - Wed Oct 16 2019 09:46 PM

GFS landfalls a 1000 mb low in Florida's panhandle or the Forgotten Coast late Saturday. My gut feeling is 96-L will have enough time over the warm waters of the Gulf to strengthen to a mid-range 50-60 mph tropical (or sub-tropical) storm before landfall in the Big Bend just north of Cedar Key on Sunday.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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BloodstarModerator
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Re: Gulf Invest 96L [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100761 - Thu Oct 17 2019 01:49 PM

Visible satellite imagery shows a pretty vigorous low level circulation. not a ton of convection over the center, but the center is in a low shear environment. There is some shear to the NW of the storm which might impact the center later today, But if the storm does begin moving to the northeast, it would be moving in the direction of the prevailing winds aloft.

Gulf of mexico temperatures appear to be around 29 degrees C. (about 1 degree above average) and only dropping below 28 C near the norther gulf coast, so there's plenty of fuel for the system.

The upper level low near Del Rio TX (which is creating the upper level flow to the NW of the system) is sliding to the south east. All in all though, I think the PTC will stay away from the shear (and the flow might act as an outflow channel if the system gets well organized).

basically I don't see anything that would prevent the storm from developing at this point.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020. (Sigh LOL)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: SIXTEEN Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100762 - Thu Oct 17 2019 02:55 PM

Troffy as of mid-morning, as can be gleaned from the OSCAT pass shown in the image below. The primary LLC was itself still elongated, but partially within and overall closer to the lower shear environment noted by Bloodstar, as well as also colocated with some of the deepest convection and more robust surface convergence. It seems likely to develop IMHO, but I think there remains a chance (decreasing) that the interaction with upper levels and front from its northwest keeps it elongated and struggling. Should it win this race - beat the approaching shear/front/tap the upper-level outflow (all more likely than not, but I think still not guaranteed) the incipient cyclone could even become a hurricane prior to landfall.

Recon is heading out now. I think we'll have a lot answers by 11pm eastern.



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Prospero
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Re: SIXTEEN Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100763 - Thu Oct 17 2019 08:41 PM

Every year, these are the storms that bring us rain when we need it around Tampa Bay.

Funny how when looking at rainfall averages, it often appears that September/October are wet months, but it all happens with one or two lonely tropical systems.


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doug
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Re: SIXTEEN Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #100765 - Fri Oct 18 2019 12:20 PM

The current SAT review on Tropical Tidbits demonstrates that the direction of what is clearly now a low center is ENE and not NE as predicted.....I am skeptical of the course in the advisory

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doug


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Genesis
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Re: SIXTEEN Lounge [Re: doug]
      #100766 - Fri Oct 18 2019 01:36 PM

This is a very interesting presentation; of you look at the visible GOES loop you can clearly see the center of rotation trying to wrap convection around it but basically all of the cloudiness is off to the east, and IMHO movement is more ENE than NE.

I'm near Destin and we're getting a light but steady rain and have been for the last several hours -- but no wind of any note.

The WV loop is quite interesting as well; there's just no "there" there near the COC on the visible looking at that. https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/goesEastconusband08.html


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doug
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Re: SIXTEEN Lounge [Re: Genesis]
      #100769 - Sun Oct 20 2019 01:08 PM

In the end, Nestor proved to be an atypical storm...more like a low center that pushed a trough across the peninsula. Briefly we had 3 inches of rain, and after the rain trough passed , gusty winds, 20-25 sustained and higher gusts, just as advertised...hopefully it will be the system that kicks open the door to a pattern change to more seasonal weather..

--------------------
doug


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