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Edouard moving away, watching 98L near FL Panhandle that may form once it moves into the Atlantic, and more.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 305 (Dorian) , Major: 636 (Michael) Florida - Any: 636 (Michael) Major: 636 (Michael)
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General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 129
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
deepening Caribbean gyre
      #100958 - Wed May 27 2020 07:55 AM

Looking beyond 91-L for "upstream" potential areas of interest to Florida and the Gulf, NWS Melbourne noted the following in their extended discussion:

GFS guid continues to indicate modest onshore winds from the ATLC with a deepening Caribbean gyre centered near the Yucatan. EC is not quite into the height fall trend to the south.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 129
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: deepening Caribbean gyre [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100959 - Wed May 27 2020 08:06 AM

Forecasted strengthening (albeit weak) easterly flow from Bermuda high ridging westward across the Florida peninsula should steer anything that drifts northward and enters the Gulf toward Tex/La coast.

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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Keith B
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 40
Loc: FL, Orange County
Re: deepening Caribbean gyre [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100960 - Wed May 27 2020 08:13 AM

IsoFlame,

I read MLB AFD from this morning. Can I have the last sentence in English?

Thanks,

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 129
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: deepening Caribbean gyre [Re: Keith B]
      #100967 - Thu May 28 2020 09:04 AM

Graphic for TC development June 3-9 (note moderate potential in vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula):

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/images/gth_full.png

From the CPC 8-14 Day Hazards Outlook discussion:

Valid Thursday June 04, 2020 to Wednesday June 10, 2020
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT May 27 2020

A Kelvin wave (KW) is forecast to propagate eastward over the Western Hemisphere during the next week. This KW is expected to reduce vertical wind shear and provide a favorable large-scale environment for tropical cyclone (TC) development across the East Pacific and/or the western Caribbean Sea and Bay of Campeche. A number of GFS and Canadian ensemble members continue to feature TC development near the Yucatan Peninsula with potential tracks north into the Gulf of Mexico, as early as next week. Although model spread is large with TC genesis and its potential future track, a slight risk of heavy rainfall is maintained for southern Florida through Week-2. Depending on future model runs, the slight risk of heavy rainfall may need to be expanded north to cover more of the Gulf Coast.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

Edited by IsoFlame (Thu May 28 2020 09:12 AM)


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 129
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: deepening Caribbean gyre [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100970 - Sat May 30 2020 07:01 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
448 AM EDT Sat May 30 2020

Wednesday-Saturday...There remains significant disparity in the extended range with how the model guidance handles the evolution of the Central American Gyre (CAG) pattern late next week. This in turn impacts the downstream flow pattern across Florida. A piece of vorticity is forecast to eject out of the gyre Wed-Thu, and lift north to NW into the GOMEX. The ECM brings this much closer to FL than either the GFS/CMC, which turn the feature westward. The latter models keep more ridging across FL while the ECM eventually rebuilds the ridge over the state Fri-Sat as a larger portion of the gyre ejects out toward the western GOMEX. The ECM also shows deeper moisture over the area late next week than either GFS/CMC.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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