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Last advisory issued for Isaias as it moves over Quebec. Other than 94L (which looks like it won't develop) Atlantic is quiet for a bit.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 3 (Isaias) , Major: 667 (Michael) Florida - Any: 667 (Michael) Major: 667 (Michael)
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General Discussion >> 2020 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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General Model Forecast Lounge
      #100966 - Wed May 27 2020 06:14 PM

This forums is for model talk in the season not attached to anything specific, when it becomes clear something is happening, or an invest forms, a new post for it may be created.

That said, after Bertha there is a potential Eastern Pacific to Atlantic Crossover in 7-10 days in the Gulf or Western Caribbean that is worth watching, particularly since the GFS shows it developing into a hurricane. European Ensembles also have warmed to this possibility this afternoon. But it is still a bit too early to say if anything will happen, but the area is unusually ripe for it this year. So it's an area to watch as we enter into the actual Hurricane Season.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: General Model Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101032 - Sun Jul 26 2020 04:48 PM

not really model storms, but calling out the area in the North Central Gulf, which seems like it could be a candidate for surprise development if it weren't for the high shear in the area, along with an area east of Florida. Gonzalo's remnants is another, as well as the wave east of 92L.

None of these are called out in the TWO, but are ones I'm also watching.


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EMS
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Re: General Model Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101157 - Wed Aug 05 2020 09:22 AM

Last few runs of GFS insist on spinning up a hurricane into the Gulf out of the SW Caribbean fifteen days out. Granted long way away but interesting.

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