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Edouard moving away, watching 98L near FL Panhandle that may form once it moves into the Atlantic, and more.
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General Discussion >> 2020 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Cristobal Lounge
      #100971 - Sun May 31 2020 12:20 PM




The well advertised Central American Gyre we have been tracking on Flhurricane and that has spun up Tropical Storm Amanda in the extreme northern East Pacific just south of land, continues within a favorable environment for additional genesis and/or, as now appears likely, the transference of East Pac Amanda or at the very least a considerable amount of her remnant moisture, spin and energy into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

This feature is not yet Invest tagged, but will likely be so shortly. To answer the question in advance, should this result in a tropical storm on the Atlantic side it would retain the same name only if it has not degenerated. The next name from the list in the Atlantic basin is Cristobal.

Images and forecast plots coming soon.


5/31/20 8PM ET Update: The remnants of former Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda are traversing central America, entering the Gulf of Mexico, and have been Invest tagged 93L. We have updated the title accordingly.

6/1/20 4:15PM ET Update: Invest 93L has become a Tropical Cyclone and NHC is starting advisories on Tropical Depression Three shortly. The title has been updated accordingly.

Edited by MikeC (Tue Jun 02 2020 12:41 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 93L in the Gulf of Mexico [Re: cieldumort]
      #100973 - Sun May 31 2020 10:41 PM

EPS ensembles are the most interesting here:


Many keep it weak into Mexico, but there's quite a few that take it north into a gulf and form a hurricane. 93L is most assuredly worth watching. GFS doesn't have a great handle on it at the moment, but it would probably fall into the former.

Canadian has a Tropical Storm into Louisiana on Sunday morning. Icon has a hurricane into TX/LA border on Sunday.




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doug
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Re: Invest 93L in the Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #100975 - Mon Jun 01 2020 09:27 AM

GFS does not organize this but pulls significant moisture to the NE.
Euro turns this westward with limited moisture to the north east. Tampa mets are suggesting 60% rain chances in the two plus inch amounts over the peninsula gulf coast counties Thursday-Friday.
The fun continues...

--------------------
doug


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Invest 93L in the Gulf of Mexico [Re: cieldumort]
      #100976 - Mon Jun 01 2020 10:41 AM

As of 8AM ET Monday, NHC has increased their forecast odds of 93L developing to 80% within just 48 hours.

The area of low pressure associated with the remnants of former EPac Amanda has continued to become better defined while even still over land, with good moisture convergence overnight, moist inflow from multiple sources (Eastern Pacific, Caribbean, Gulf), and healthy outflow in the upper levels.

Conflicting with 93L's ability to become a tropical cyclone today is its mean location over land, with competing surface circulations noted over water to its west and southwest (one in the extreme southern Bay of Campeche, and another over the extreme northern East Pac). These auxiliary circulations are part of the parent CAG (Central American Gyre) from which 93L/x-Amanda was born. By tomorrow they may overtake and become the dominant feature for 93L to develop with (in the case of the Bay of Campeche swirl), dissolve, merge, or, at least in the case of the east Pac swirl, possibly start to develop on its own back in that basin.


0z model runs this morning are unanimously calling for genesis in the Gulf this week, and if it wasn't for 93L being stuck over land at the moment, NHC odds would likely already be close to 100%.

Here's a quick rundown of some of the major models' 01/0z runs:

GLOBALS:

EURO - Cooks up Cristobal by early tomorrow in the southern Bay of Campeche, much quicker and a great deal more compact and coherent than the sloppy system the GFS advertises (See below). This model then cyclonically loops the compact tropical storm just onshore of Mexico along the extreme southwestern Bay of Campeche on Friday, and back around into the Gulf to redevelop it as a larger, more sprawly system Saturday, ultimately making landfall near Corpus Christi, TX next Tuesday as a low-end Tropical Storm.

GFS - Slowly develops what becomes a sprawling, low-end tropical storm in the central Gulf of Mexico by the coming weekend, and which then makes landfall along the TX/LA border sometime around next Monday night, with the weather heavily weighted to the eastern side.

ICON - Bullishly constructs a TD later today from the swirl already present over the extreme Bay of Campeche, organizing it further throughout the week as it becomes a high-end Trop Storm/possible Hurricane Cristobal by Friday in the central Gulf, raking Louisiana all weekend and making landfall near the TX/LA border Sunday morning.

UKMET - Cooks up Cristobal later today from the swirl already present over the extreme Bay of Campeche and nearly stalls all week in the southern Bay of Campeche. By this weekend UK has Cristobal moving again, finally as a Cat 1 or so approaching the northeast Gulf of Mexico coastlines by Sunday.


01/0z STORM-CENTERED MODELS:

HWRF - Only briefly develops 93L into a TD on either or both sides of the Yucatan, but does develop a hurricane in the extreme northern East Pac just south of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.

HMON - Seems to cook up a TD by sometime Tuesday in the Bay of Campeche, nearly losing it after a cyclonic loop into land, but redeveloping it by the weekend as it emerges back out over the Gulf.


It is worth noting that several of the EURO ensemble members ramp up 93L into a powerful hurricane in the northwest or northern Gulf.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Invest 93L in the Gulf of Mexico [Re: cieldumort]
      #100977 - Mon Jun 01 2020 02:43 PM


Invest 93L June 1, 2020 1825z Image credit: Weathernerds.org


As of early Monday afternoon, the mean center of Invest 93L is now just about in the easternmost Bay of Campeche. Once more fully inside the cyclone-friendly bay and over its very warm waters, provided still within the low shear environment aloft that is present in the southern portions of the Gulf, tropical cyclogenesis may begin in earnest.

Interests in this area should monitor this system closely. Tropical Storm Watches and/or Warnings may be issued at any time now. As the incipient tropical cyclone is likely to move slowly for several days, and perhaps even meander or reform yet again, ongoing rounds of heavy to very heavy rains and thunderstorms may perpetuate serious flood risks for portions of Central America and Mexico.


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Invest 93L in the Gulf of Mexico [Re: cieldumort]
      #100978 - Tue Jun 02 2020 01:11 AM

I am in Puerto Morelos about 30 mins south of Cancun.I will keep you guys updated on conditions.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 93L in the Gulf of Mexico [Re: cieldumort]
      #100979 - Tue Jun 02 2020 10:11 AM

Overnight models, 0z Euro takes 3 (or spawn) to near Port Arthur, TX as a Cat 2 hurricane Monday.

6z GFS has a disintegrating tropical storm arriving into West LA on Monday.

0z CMC has a tropical storm making landfall in W. LA Late Sunday.

0z icon has a strong cat 2 making landfall near Matagorda, TX early Monday.

0z UKMET has a Strong TS/Cat1 making landfall near Gulfport, MS Sunday afternoon.


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BloodstarModerator
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Re: Invest 93L in the Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #100980 - Wed Jun 03 2020 04:29 PM

The wind shear forecasts seem to be marginal for Cristobal. By that I mean it looks like the system might stay away from the worst of the shear for the next 5 days. There also appears to be an outflow channel developing for the system after day 3 or so.

Given all that, the sea surface temperatures are marginal for TC development in the northern third of the GOM. So even if shear doesn't develop, the storm may not have the energy to really develop.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020!

TD/TS/H/M
00/00/00/0
18/17/7/4


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IsoFlame
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Re: Invest 93L in the Gulf of Mexico [Re: cieldumort]
      #100981 - Thu Jun 04 2020 05:00 PM

From today's sat loops, couldn't really identify a low level circ over land. An area of persistent deep convection NE of x-Cristobal's last position, in the moisture stream extending from the Yucatan to Florida, appears to be part of a very broad circulation. Model consensus takes depression north into a currently very dry environment (when compared to the "yucatan express" moist band directed at the FL peninsula). The weakened system and the down graded 3-day forecasted intensity will produce copious rainfall in Florida in parts of Florida. Even though my location received 1.3" so far today, still running 6" below for the year (a burn ban is still in effect for Volusia Co), so 3-5" spread over several days would be very welcome.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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Kraig
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Re: Invest 93L in the Gulf of Mexico [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100983 - Fri Jun 05 2020 09:10 PM Attachment (36 downloads)

I am in northeastern Palm Beach County where we've had 10-15" in the last week. Many areas of coastal Martin County just north of me has had almost 34" since midMay! No deficit here! 30 day rainfall image

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MichaelA
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Re: Invest 93L in the Gulf of Mexico [Re: Kraig]
      #100984 - Sat Jun 06 2020 09:50 AM

Here in Pinellas County, I’ve had 1.95” since midnight; 3.30” attributable to the pattern produced by TS Cristobal. Still getting moderate to heavy periods of rain.

--------------------
Michael

Personal Weather Station

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual: 5/0/0


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MichaelA
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Reged: Thu
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Re: Invest 93L in the Gulf of Mexico [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100985 - Sat Jun 06 2020 12:55 PM

Current satellite presentation indicates that the heaviest weather associated with Cristobal is located well to the east and north of the center. It looks like the coast from St. Marks or Apalachicola westward will experience the heaviest rain if not winds Also, with these types of tropical storms, the probability of small tornadoes is higher than normal. Stay safe, folks.j

--------------------
Michael

Personal Weather Station

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual: 5/0/0


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MichaelA
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Reged: Thu
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Re: Invest 93L in the Gulf of Mexico [Re: MichaelA]
      #100986 - Sat Jun 06 2020 06:00 PM

The far eastern thunderstorm/rain band is beginning to move onshore along Pinellas County. More heavy rain for the next couple of hours.

--------------------
Michael

Personal Weather Station

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual: 5/0/0


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