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General Discussion >> 2020 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Hanna Lounge
      #101002 - Tue Jul 21 2020 02:58 PM


Invest 91L Visible image 07/21/20 1800z


A sprawling tropical wave presently draped across western Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico, continues to slowly become a little better organized, and is now being tracked as an Invest, 91L.

As of today, Tuesday July 21, NHC is advertising 30% odds of TC genesis within two days, and 40% odds within five.

Regardless of further development, this system carries copious moisture, and could bring heavy, potentially flooding rains, to western Gulf states later this week.

Edited by MikeC (Fri Jul 24 2020 07:43 AM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Invest 91L Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101005 - Wed Jul 22 2020 01:52 PM


Invest 91L 07/22/20 1421z OSCAT overlayed 1420z VIS


Scatterometer, radar and conventional satellite data strongly suggest that 91L is closing off today and has maximum sustained winds of about 30 to 35 MPH in the heaviest squalls.

While it is not entirely clear why most models are running cool on not only 91L, but also Gonzalo before her - we are lacking tremendous amounts of flight weather data, as one possible explanation/issue - it is simply worth noting this fact, and exercising caution when considering model forecasts on 91L at this time. The disturbance already appears to be knocking on the door of becoming our next official tropical cyclone of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.

Recon is presently en route, and will provide invaluable information.

The track ahead of the incipient tropical cyclone is one of low shear and anomalously warm SSTs.

There are some suggestions that 91L/storm could pull up to a crawl ,or even stall, once near, over and/or inland of the Texas coast.

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: TD 8 Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101007 - Thu Jul 23 2020 04:26 PM

As of the 10PM CDT NHC update last night, Invest 91L was determined to have sufficient organization to be classified a Tropical Depression, TD 8.

As of Thursday 2PM CDT, EIGHT continues to gradually organize, and based on the last recon pass and subsequent conventional satellite data, appears to be tightening up, and could very well be named later today or tonight. The next name on the list in the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season is Hanna.

Should EIGHT be named, which seems very likely, this would set yet another naming record in 2020. The current record holder for earliest eighth name in the Atlantic basin occurred on August 3, 2005, with Harvey.

EIGHT is a srawly tropical cyclone, with wide reaching weather impacts, primarily in the form of heavy rain - some of it training - likely to continue even as further tightening occurs. In addition, as the cyclone builds more skyward, it will continue to feel the steering influence further up in the atmosphere, and some slowing or even crawling looks increasingly possible as it nears and/or crosses somewhere along the Texas coast, and perhaps for some time while still inland. As such, the risk of significant rains and flooding is going up for at least Texas.

EIGHT is slowly traveling a favorable region of light shear, fairly moist atmosphere and anomalously warm SSTs. Intensification into a hurricane, while not yet even mentioned as a tease by the NHC, is possible. I'd put the odds of this about about 40%, IMHO.

Here are some quick model breakdowns on EIGHT:

ECMW - 23/12z run seems to have further backed off the quirky inland strengthening, and calls for landfall as a low to mid range TS along the Texas coast between Brownsville and Corpus Christi Saturday morning. This run also expects many locations in far south Texas to pick up 8+ inches of rain over the weekend.

GFS - 23/12 This run fails to initialize EIGHT very well, and holds this unrepresentative feature mostly as a weak closed low or possibly at times even an open wave all the way to the coast and inland by Saturday morning, with far less total rain accumulations over the weekend This does not appear to be an especially reliable run because of the poor initial state and current trends, but it is the GFS, and as such is worth considering.

ICON - 23/12 This run has EIGHT making landfall just a bit northeast up the coast from Corpus Christi midday Saturday as a low to mid range Tropical Storm, and projects several areas of 7+ inches of rain over the weekend in far south Texas.

HWRF - 23/12 This hurricane-centered run has EIGHT making landfall just northeast up the coast from Corpus Christ early Saturday morning as a mid to high end Tropical Storm. Unlike other models, this run of the HWRF wants to veer the cyclone more WNW (as opposed to WSW) before then turning back to the WSW.

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Prospero
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Re: TD 8 Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101012 - Fri Jul 24 2020 04:03 PM

Nobody talking about Hanna?

Yea, maybe not a Florida storm. But the last couple days with a stiff breeze and and an inch a half of rain so felt significant enough from the fringes.

Edited by Prospero (Fri Jul 24 2020 04:16 PM)


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bob3d
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Re: Hanna Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101013 - Fri Jul 24 2020 06:16 PM

Hurricane Warning just posted for Hanna along the Texas coast.

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Prospero
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Re: Hanna Lounge [Re: bob3d]
      #101015 - Fri Jul 24 2020 06:58 PM

Just received 0.7 inches of rain in about 15 minutes here in Gulfport, FL. We are far away from Hanna, but I suspect this is still a result of the storm's churning.

The Texas Gulf Coast may be a very wet place to be the next few days.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Hanna Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101018 - Fri Jul 24 2020 07:44 PM

It is becoming increasingly likely that Hanna will become a hurricane, and possibly not a "weak" Cat 1, either, but a very potent and impactful Cat 1.. or more. This is because the TC has a very copious fetch of moisture being pulled up along with it, set to continue into and after landfall, in addition to there being plenty of time left for it to avail itself of generally good conditions for further intensification. Thus, while not yet called for by NHC, some of the models have already been sniffing out risk of a Cat 2, and this seems entirely reasonable.

Recon is presently en route, and will soon be sampling the tropical storm force winds in Hanna. The flight may not be able to provide a vort prior to the intermediate advisory from NHC, but at least some of the initial info will make it in. There may be an addendum between 7 and 10pm once more is known. It is possible that Hanna is already a higher-end Tropical Storm.

The most recent SATCON and member estimates as follows:

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 07241944
SATCON: MSLP = 989 hPa MSW = 56 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 55.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 59 knots

Member Estimates

ADT: 988 hPa 55 knots Scene: CDO Date: JUL242150
CIMSS AMSU: 997 hPa 46 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 07241555
ATMS: 988.3 hPa 51.6 knots Date: 07241944
SSMIS: 989.3 hPa 55.0 knots Date: 07241944
CIRA ATMS: 990 hPa 59 knots Date: 07241945


Even if Hanna does not become a high-end Cat 1 or Cat 2 hurricane, folks in the path of the cyclone, even many miles from the core, should prepare for a very wet and stormy weekend. Training thunderstorms alone could result in significant flooding in south Texas.

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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Prospero
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Re: Hanna Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101020 - Fri Jul 24 2020 08:02 PM

I think I'd be putting my good furniture and and belongings on the second floor or on some kind of stacked blocks just from the rain potential. Time to pull out the kayaks...again in southeast Texas. Looks like a real soaker. Hope it moves quickly.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hanna Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #101021 - Fri Jul 24 2020 08:51 PM

The 18Z euro model (available on weathermodels.com) is showing a 977mb landfall for Hanna, which is ~ a cat 2 hurricane.

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Hanna Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101023 - Sat Jul 25 2020 03:05 AM

Texas has a bit of history with H named storms over-performing, although typically we would be mentioning that in late August or even September.

I'm about to chase Hanna this weekend with friends. We are stocking up on food, fuel and water and have backup plans. This will be a hurricane chase, with our primary goal one of safety, then second the thrill of intercepting such an impressive tropical cyclone.

Here are my updated probabilities for Hanna's maximum intensity:

High-end Tropical Storm <1%
Hurricane (any category) >99%
Hurricane Cat 1 30%
Hurricane Cat 2 30%
Hurricane Cat 3 25%
Hurricane Cat 4 15%
Hurricane Cat 5 <1%

Implicit in this forecast is a 40% chance that Hanna becomes a Major.

There are some mechanical issues that Hanna will have to overcome to be able to cross the threshold from Cat 1 to Cat 2, but provided that occurs, there would be an increasing chance of some further slowing heading into landfall and/or combined with increased convection due to friction upon encountering land, that could pop Hanna up another notch, maybe two, reminiscent of Harvey.

One silver lining for south Texas, is that Hanna is unlikely to stall - or if she does - not for nearly as long as Harvey. Put another way, my chase partners and I actually aborted our Harvey chase because of the near certainty of a stall, and us being trapped in rising flood waters. While severe flooding is definitely a high risk this weekend, it is not likely to be as bad as Harvey's was, overall.

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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Prospero
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Re: Hanna Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101025 - Sat Jul 25 2020 08:36 PM

Quote:

I'm about to chase Hanna this weekend with friends. We are stocking up on food, fuel and water and have backup plans. This will be a hurricane chase, with our primary goal one of safety, then second the thrill of intercepting such an impressive tropical cyclone.




Wish I was with you! What fun, but stay safe.

What are you seeing and experiencing?


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