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Archives 2010s >> 2020 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Sally Lounge
      #101302 - Thu Sep 10 2020 02:01 PM


Trof Invest #TBD centered east of the Bahamas 09/10/20 1741z
Base image credit: College of DuPage


A robust trof of low pressure located just east of the Bahamas today is starting to show some initial indications of trying to develop a surface center of rotation and we are starting a Lounge on Invest #TBD.

Conditions ahead include very warm water, sufficient atmospheric humidity and increasingly favorable upper-level winds. NHC presently gives it 10% odds within 48 hours/40% odds within 5 days to become a tropical cyclone, and this could be conservative.

Track-wise, this feature, which has yet to be Invest tagged, is expected to cross Florida and enter the GOM over the weekend, where development/intensification should be most likely to occur. As some parts of the south have already received copious rains and are now primed for flooding, the precip alone could become problematic.

This feature has been Invest tagged 96L and the title has been updated accordingly.

Edited by MikeC (Sat Sep 12 2020 03:32 PM)


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Trof E of Bahamas [Re: cieldumort]
      #101305 - Fri Sep 11 2020 03:15 AM

The trof located east of Florida has now been Invest tagged: 96L.

Model support for 96L is steadily rising, although should it cross Florida and quickly track northwest as several model runs suggest, it may not have the time necessary to overcome its impediments of relative rotundity and current lack of significant surface circulation.

Regardless of development, this disturbance is likely to bring copious rains to the southeast and south starting this weekend and into at least early next week.

As of 06Z Friday Sep 11, 96L was estimated to be centered near 25.3N and 77.5W with a fairly high minimum pressure of 1013mb. Maximum sustained winds are light at about 20 KTS.

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 408
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Trof E of Bahamas [Re: cieldumort]
      #101307 - Fri Sep 11 2020 06:40 PM

Well at least the NHC can track 19 by looking out the window.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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Steve C
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 17
Loc: Houston TX 77059
Re: Trof E of Bahamas [Re: JMII]
      #101308 - Sat Sep 12 2020 01:01 AM

"Well at least the NHC can track 19 by looking out the window. "

Not ashamed to admit I lawled...

Edited by Steve C (Sat Sep 12 2020 01:02 AM)


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 405
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Trof E of Bahamas [Re: Steve C]
      #101310 - Sat Sep 12 2020 12:13 PM

Getting some nice little gusts here in SW Seminole County.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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bob3d
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 34
Loc: Pasco County, Florida
Re: Trof E of Bahamas [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #101311 - Sat Sep 12 2020 02:11 PM

Call her Sally as of 2PM advisory.

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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 405
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Trof E of Bahamas [Re: bob3d]
      #101312 - Sat Sep 12 2020 04:15 PM

.55 inches of rain so far for the day in SW Seminole county. It's a bleak and overcast day. Typical for September. An occasional light gust occurres now and then.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 368
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Trof E of Bahamas [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #101313 - Sat Sep 12 2020 07:03 PM

Three blustery rounds here in south Plant City today. Not sure the rain total since I forgot to empty the gauge from this week until the third round. Calm overcast now.
There WAS a tornado warning around Avon Park about 5pm or so.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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bob3d
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 34
Loc: Pasco County, Florida
Re: Trof E of Bahamas [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #101314 - Sat Sep 12 2020 07:26 PM

1.1 inches of rain so far with this storm... not that impressive so far, but Sally is not up to my latitude yet. We'll see tomorrow...

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Sally Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101315 - Sat Sep 12 2020 07:28 PM

For the past several hours Sally appears to be riding NNW to NW just off the SW Florida west coast, well to the right of model guidance and NHC forecast. If this trend continues through the evening a meaningful change in track and intensity forecast may be coming by morning.

The deepest convection is still displaced from the LLC, at this hour well to its southeast.

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 252
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Sally Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101316 - Sat Sep 12 2020 10:33 PM

Here in Gulfport, FL, the winds are steady and strong with gusts into the 30s. We are a long ways from Sally right now. I've watched the winds on the Florida east coast all day and this storm has a big influence. Sally is no joke, no matter what the models show, she has some beef.

I'm enjoying being outside to feel the powerful wind, yet another Florida tropical system that we do get a kick out of. But the last couple hours I am actually doing some preparations and securing anything that might be vulnerable such as planters, wind chimes, umbrellas, decorations, and light lawn furniture.

Not expecting any real damage here and not worried about our windows yet, but so far this is more than we've felt here in Gulfport this 2020 season, including Isiais and Laura.

I do worry about what Sally might become for other areas, it just "feels" VERY powerful right now on this Saturday evening.

--------------------
Gulfport, Florida USA - Personal Weather Station:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLGULFP5
My Live Beach Cam on Clearwater Beach:
https://beachresortcondos.com/clearwater-beach-live-webcam.html


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4360
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Sally Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #101317 - Sun Sep 13 2020 05:55 PM

Sally is going to be a flooding nightmare where it makes landfall regardless of how strong, flooding rains and surge won't be good combo here with that slow motion. Any strength gains just add on to that, but even if it came in just as strong as it is right now it still would likely be very memorable.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4360
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Sally Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101318 - Sun Sep 13 2020 06:07 PM

18Z GFS trending stronger again, and a bit east, now suggesting Gulfport, MS as the landfall point. It will be interesting to see if the 11pm track shifts at all, or they stick to what's there. Also, time for landfall keeps on getting later and later.

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kspkap
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 33
Re: Sally Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101319 - Sun Sep 13 2020 08:04 PM

Gee thanks, Mike! No news like bad news! I live in Long Beach, MS across the street from the Gulf. Gulfport is 3 miles east of me. Two blocks east US 90 floods over to where you can’t tell the road from the gulf! As I’ve wrote before this lot had a 32 foot storm surge with Katrina! We purchased a slab lot. I think we are getting a 11 foot surge with Sally. US 90 in front may flood, but I think (hope) it doesn’t rise to cover our lot. Our elevation is higher here. The bottom floors of the casinos will flood. Roads off of US 90 will flood. Driving will be hazardous. Some cars will be floating.

--------------------
Donna-1960, Charley-2004, Frances-2004, Jeanne-2004, Issac-2012


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4360
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Sally Lounge [Re: kspkap]
      #101320 - Mon Sep 14 2020 10:01 AM

Yeah this isn't looking good for MS/AL it may stall, this morning's relocation and "explosion" on satellite along with the slow motion means a ton of rain/surge combo flooding since it'll take its sweet time moving. MS/AL and the Western Fl Panhandle in particular. It looks like recon found the center relocated under that massive burst this morning too.

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Kraig
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 49
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
Re: Sally Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101321 - Mon Sep 14 2020 11:16 AM

With the center reforming a bit to the east per the imagery and 11am discussion, I've got a feeling it will landfall closer to the MS/AL line and give Mobile area a terrible surge!

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2020 forecast 22/12/5 ; 28/12/5 as of 11/3

South FL Native: David ('79), Floyd ('87), Andrew ('92), Georges ('98), Irene ('99), Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04), Wilma ('05), Matthew ('16), Irma ('17), Dorian ('19) and Isaias (20)


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Sally Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101323 - Mon Sep 14 2020 12:11 PM

Based on radar, satellite, lightning and recon, it appears that the center has definitely reformed to the northeast, and a period of Rapid Intensification is likely underway. Given the decreasing forward speed and potential for a near stall, there will now be time for the much improved internal structure to allow Sally to go Major, provided the forecast crawl/stall occurs over water.

The cyclone's portly size may yet be an impediment to epic RI, but significant deepening looks to be in the cards.

This TC has moderate to high potential to produce epic flooding, both surge and inland flooding, regardless. Those especially along the center and to the right of the center should prepare for what could be historic flooding, and take all official evac orders seriously. We caught a real break with where the storm surge occurred during Laura, but that doesn't mean we will catch the same break with Sally.

My max sustained SS intensity (a wind scale, only) is as follows

High-end Tropical Storm
(Current): 2%
Cat 1 Hurricane: 25%
Cat 2 Hurricane: 30%
Cat 3 Hurricane: 30%
Cat 4 Hurricane: 10%
Cat 5 Hurricane: 3%

Which works out to a 43% chance of going Major, overall.

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 184
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Sally Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101325 - Mon Sep 14 2020 12:25 PM

I am scheduled to drive into Birmingham Wednesday evening for family medical testing at UAB on Thursday/Friday. What was once seemed to be not affected by Sally at all is slowly turning into a wait and see event. Even if not affected directly, could be a difficult drive through weather and people that have escaped from the coast. And a possibility the hospital needs to focus its attention elsewhere.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Sally Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101326 - Mon Sep 14 2020 01:03 PM

It would appear that the LLC did not reform per say, but rather rotated about and with the vigorous mid-level center, to much better align with each other. It is not yet clear that this process is over, but at least for the moment, it seems that a track to the NW seems to have commenced, now from a location now to the northeast of where it was just a little while ago this morning.

Image credits: Philippe Papin and Levi Cowan on Twitter



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BayCoGator
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 27
Loc: NW Florida
Re: Sally Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101328 - Mon Sep 14 2020 07:30 PM

It looks like Sally has nearly stalled. A more northward jog coming or a resumption of the wnw motion?

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