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General Discussion >> 2020 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1994
Loc: Austin, Tx
Tropical Storm Beta Lounge
      #101334 - Tue Sep 15 2020 12:45 PM



An Area to Watch that we noted a few times elsewhere has shown signs of developing this morning and we are starting a lounge on this system, not yet Invest tagged, but could soon be.

Invest #TBD is presently centered well south of Brownsville, TX at roughly 23N 96W. The disturbance has been around for several days and was in the far northern GOM just west of where Hurricane Sally is now, but began rotating south-southwestward and then almost due south into its present location, which is also now a somewhat favorable environment for development.

This disturbance has had a well defined circulation for several days and is now coalescing some convection, with most recently a small burst over the apparent center, which had slid in and under some of the loosely associated showers and storms closer to the coast.

While most model support has been tepid at best, over the past few runs things have been picking up, with a few models now developing this area of low pressure into a tropical storm force system by the end of this week and bringing it back north. That looks like a reasonable call, and could even be conservative.

This disturbance has been Invest tagged on the morning of 09/16, Invest 90L, and the title has been updated.
Invest 90L has become TD22 and the title has been updated.

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Edited by cieldumort (Fri Sep 18 2020 03:15 PM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: New SW Gulf Disturbance [Re: cieldumort]
      #101338 - Tue Sep 15 2020 05:35 PM

Still not yet Invest tagged, but here's a rundown of some 12Z model runs

ECMWF Might be initializing too far south given the LLC's recentering today, but TBD.. Gradually develops system in southwest GOM. Just off the coast of Brownsville, TX as a 40 KT TS at the end of run on Friday 9/22/12z

GFS Might have the initialization in the correct location. Keeps disturbance weak and as a trof in the SW GOM, meandering about, and mostly washes it out by Wednesday 9/20/12z.

GFSP Trof/Closed/Trof pattern until about Monday 9/21/18z when it has a well-defined TD or low-end TS roughly east of Tampico, MX. Gradually rides up the coast towards deep S Tx, and looks like a major rain event. Pushes into Brownsville, TX as a TD on Friday 9/25.

ICON Might have the initialization in the correct location. Gradually develops the system in a sloppy trof/closed/trof pattern until finally coming together well near the end of run closer to Brownsville, TX. ICON has it as a 55/60 MPH TS by end of run Tuesday 9/20 close to where the run started, about halfway between Tampico, MX and Brownsville, TX

UKMET Might initialize about right. System drifts SE and very gradually continues to cook up in a trof/closed/trof pattern until the middle of the coming weekend, where it appears to sufficiently close off a TD or TS. Slowly rides NNW offshore of Mexico and south of Brownsville. Just northeast of Tampico, MX at end of run Monday 9/21/12z as a mid-grade TS.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: New SW Gulf Disturbance [Re: cieldumort]
      #101356 - Wed Sep 16 2020 07:48 PM

ok 90L is interesting to me in the wake of sally, some models like the GFS keep it a sloppy mess, but Icon and the parallel GFS are pretty eye opening. Sally likely caught a lot of folks off guard, and this one is likely to do so also if it develops.

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Psyber
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Re: New SW Gulf Disturbance [Re: MikeC]
      #101357 - Wed Sep 16 2020 09:04 PM

Quote:

Sally likely caught a lot of folks off guard,




One might say that . I'm trying to remember a storm that's done that in my days of watching.

As for 90L, the question is if it's going to let itself get steered back out over the GOM with that small pressure system north of it. It's most definitely firing pretty aggressively in place I don't know if I see this more than a nasty rainstorm surprise. The IR 4km shows it forming more on the left side of the storm but much more and it's going to run out of space and be on land. There's not a terrific amount of spin either which makes me see it as a bunch of collections of thunderheads. For now.

Still, all eyes are open now. Like you said, it's possibly another freakish surprise. Sally got everyone spooked pretty well.


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cieldumortModerator
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 90L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101361 - Thu Sep 17 2020 03:42 PM

90L has a fairly well defined circulation as well as relatively well organized convection this afternoon, and we may see it upgraded shortly.

Model support has also been warming up, with the trends shown from the 0z to 06Z to 12Z runs increasingly confident in its formation (which now appears all but certain), as well as trending up in intensity.

Of special concern, steering currents may be very light, variable and maybe even loopy in the Gulf, allowing then Tropical Storm or Hurricane Wilfred (or Alpha, depending) to meander or even make circles over very warm SSTs, while never staying in any one place so long as to meaningfully cool SSTs down, and perhaps have more than one landfall. If verified, this could become a super sticky significant wind + surge + inland flood system.

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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