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General Discussion >> 2020 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1994
Loc: Austin, Tx
Wilfred Lounge
      #101354 - Wed Sep 16 2020 05:30 AM




An an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands as of 09/16/09z, just weak enough and starting from a latitude south enough to avoid feeling many of the customary pulls to the north and out to sea early, is being tracked as Invest 98L and has some potential to become a long-track, high-ACE, Cape Verde type hurricane than could find its way farther west than most.

NHC has given this disturbance a 50%/70% chance of development within 2 days/5 days, and as it may impact land down the road and is now looking likely to develop, we are starting a lounge on Invest 98L at this time.

98L has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Wilfred and the title has been updated. We're Greek for the rest of the year.

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


Edited by cieldumort (Fri Sep 18 2020 11:20 AM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1994
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 98L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101362 - Thu Sep 17 2020 11:11 PM


Above: 98L IR 09/17/17 0115z w/ASCAT (times not perfectly aligned).
Image credit: Weathernerds.org

Deep convection has improved signficantly with 98L tonight, and a recent ASCAT pass earlier showed its trof consolidating about a primary center. The incipient cyclone is currently enjoying a region of easing northwesterly shear and a moist atmosphere above a gradually expanding region of warm and warming SSTs.

98L continues to improve, and just a modest increase in organization would likely prompt NHC advisories. The next name on the list is Wilfred, although Alpha is next up after that, if TD22 grabs it first.

Models suggest that 98L might have a limited life as a Tropical Cyclone with increasing shear ahead, but in light of this season, it's past time to not write off any feature in the Atlantic, and it will be important to take a fresh, hard look at this one after it has been named, assuming it does get named, and after models have had time to update with new information.

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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