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#HurricaneEpsilon continues rapidly intensifying and may easily become a Major today. Bermuda should watch.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 11 (Delta) , Major: 55 (Laura) Florida - Any: 742 (Michael) Major: 742 (Michael)
29.4N 59.7W
Wind: 110MPH
Pres: 959mb
Moving:
Wnw at 9 mph
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General Discussion >> 2020 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2001
Loc: Austin, Tx
Tropical Storm Gamma Lounge
      #101372 - Wed Sep 30 2020 05:11 PM

A tropical wave starting to interact with a mostly stationary front is producing vigorous showers and thunderstorms in the central to western Caribbean, and this feature has increasing odds of developing by the end of the week.

This disturbance has not yet been Invest tagged, but will likely soon be. Interests in the western and northwestern Caribbean may want to begin paying close attention, as even if tropical cyclone development does not occur before the end of the week, very heavy and flooding rains are almost a certainty, either way. Additional details and images to come.

At 7PM CDT Oct 2, TD25 has been named: Gamma

Edited by cieldumort (Fri Oct 02 2020 09:12 PM)


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2001
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 91L Caribbean Area to Watch [Re: cieldumort]
      #101374 - Fri Oct 02 2020 01:27 AM

Invest 91L looking very much like it is just about a Tropical Storm tonight.



Image credit: Weathernerds.org

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COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 889
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: 91L Caribbean Area to Watch [Re: cieldumort]
      #101375 - Fri Oct 02 2020 01:37 PM

As of 11AM, 10/2, it is officially TD 25. It does not appear to be a threat to CONUS at the moment. Forecast to become TS Gamma by tomorrow.
Since we are now into October/November, this is the prime region for storm development.

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Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 26/10/3


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: 91L Caribbean Area to Watch [Re: MichaelA]
      #101376 - Fri Oct 02 2020 02:50 PM

This is forecast to be over me tomorrow morning. Will be up all night to make sure it does not rapidly intensify.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 889
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: 91L Caribbean Area to Watch [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #101377 - Fri Oct 02 2020 09:19 PM

Good luck. Hopefully, it will remain a weak storm.

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Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 26/10/3


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: 91L Caribbean Area to Watch [Re: MichaelA]
      #101378 - Sat Oct 03 2020 09:15 AM

Up to 65 mph now,not weak.Flooding bad.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 173
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: 91L Caribbean Area to Watch [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #101394 - Mon Oct 12 2020 04:09 PM

GFS 12Z has a strong hurricane spinning up in the Caribbean, crossing Cuba, then impacting Florida peninsula in 2 weeks: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020101212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_60.png
Each of the last 3 model runs has been further west and stronger. 12Z was a bit slower bringing the system out of the Caribbean, consequently more time over warm/deep seawater allows pressure to bottom out around 941mb prior to Cuban landfall. While 2 weeks out is a hard sale for any model to pin on, the 12Z GFS and the relative run to run consistency

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 173
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: 91L Caribbean Area to Watch [Re: IsoFlame]
      #101395 - Mon Oct 12 2020 09:50 PM

18z still a strong system, but track well east of Florida:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020101218/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_54.png

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 173
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: 91L Caribbean Area to Watch [Re: IsoFlame]
      #101396 - Tue Oct 13 2020 10:51 AM

06z GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020101306/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_54.png
a strong (major?) hurricane tracking through the central Bahamas...

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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