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General Discussion >> 2022 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2184
Loc: Austin, Tx
Lisa Lounge
      #114428 - Fri Oct 28 2022 04:22 PM

A broad area of low pressure forming in the southeastern Caribbean with strong and steady model support for development is now being tracked as an Invest, 95L, and we are starting a lounge on this feature.

NHC development odds within 5 days presently up to 70% and this could be conservative.

More details to come.


Please note: Agencies had initially erroneously tagged this disturbance "96L" but have since corrected it (95L) nd the title has been updated accordingly. - Ciel

Edited by CFHC (Tue Nov 01 2022 09:54 AM)


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MichaelA
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Reged: Thu
Posts: 941
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: 96L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #114429 - Fri Oct 28 2022 06:08 PM

Model runs are pretty much inconclusive this early. CMC takes it on a similar track as Ian bringing it to western Cuba or the Yucatan Straights. ECMWF takes it through the middle of the Caribbean. GFS doesn’t have a handle on it, and the NAVGEM runs it up East of the Bahamas. It’s certainly something to keep updated on.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 941
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: 96L Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #114430 - Sun Oct 30 2022 02:58 PM

All of the model runs this afternoon are in agreement, taking the system south of Jamaica and the Caymans westward to Belize/Nicaragua.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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