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Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 28 (Nicole) , Major: 71 (Ian) Florida - Any: 28 (Nicole) Major: 71 (Ian)
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General Discussion >> 2022 Forecast Lounge

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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 477
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge [Re: GeorgeN]
      #114499 - Wed Nov 09 2022 07:41 PM

Quote:

The 7pm shows a 600 mile, fully circular, hurricane force ,wind extent.
At this point, I'm going to stop believing there is intelligent life at the NHC.

If this was true, everyone from Atlanta to Cuba should be experiencing hurricane winds.




They just realized the mistake and fixed it. But it was LOL for awhile there. I grabbed a screenshot on my phone.


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kapSt.Cloud
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 50
Loc: Long Beach, MS
Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #114502 - Wed Nov 09 2022 11:31 PM

I’m watching local Channel 9 (wftv.com) from Orlando. The eye will be going over us in St. Cloud and Kissimmee. Nicole is forecasted to be a Cat 1 from the east coast to the Gulf. But, as with Zeta in 2020 Nicole may surprise everyone. We never know until all is done. I’m beginning to take the professional weather forecasters with a grain of salt. You folks on here have many times been right on target!

Central Florida continues to be flooded from Ian, especially around the St. Johns River. All evening they’ve been showing houses in Wilber-By-The-Sea teetering on collapsing due to the foundations being washed away by beach erosion. Ian heavily damaged the east coast even though it was classified a SW Florida storm.

Edited by kapSt.Cloud (Wed Nov 09 2022 11:48 PM)


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Rhino7170
Registered User


Reged: Mon
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge [Re: kapSt.Cloud]
      #114503 - Wed Nov 09 2022 11:55 PM

Quote:

I’m watching local Channel 9 (wftv.com) from Orlando. The eye will be going over us in St. Cloud and Kissimmee. Nicole is forecasted to be a Cat 1 from the east coast to the Gulf. But, as with Zeta in 2020 Nicole may surprise everyone. We never know until all is done. I’m beginning to take the professional weather forecasters with a grain of salt. You folks on here have many times been right on target!

Central Florida continues to be flooded from Ian, especially around the St. Johns River. All evening they’ve been showing houses in Wilber-By-The-Sea teetering on collapsing due to the foundations being washed away by beach erosion. Ian heavily damaged the east coast even though it was classified a SW Florida storm.




The cone is over more than Kissimmee, so hard to say the storm is going right over there. Don't watch just the line. The storm is predicted to loose strength one landfall occurs.... no need to predict gloom and doom, as this storm has no time to ramp up to what you keep referring to. Just relax a bit, it will be a bit of weather, but nothing devestating for you nor I.


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kapSt.Cloud
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Reged: Fri
Posts: 50
Loc: Long Beach, MS
Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge [Re: Rhino7170]
      #114504 - Thu Nov 10 2022 01:52 AM

I’m well aware the “cone” is over more than Kissimmee. I’ve been experiencing these storms since 1960 (Donna) so no need to talk down to me. Who’s “predicting gloom and doom”? Not I. You need to project your so-called knowledge to the local weather forecasters who are stating the storm will be a Cat 1 from the east coast of Florida to the Gulf. They are definitive the eye will be somewhat south of Kissimmee. No biggy unless it reaches a high Cat 1. Most do lose strength after landfall, but most also ramp up right before landfall. More than likely not this one due to it moving too fast, the location and the time of year.

Did you “relax a bit” and be complacent over the “bit of weather” by a storm named Ian or Zeta? You can get off your high horse now.

The only thing which concerns me is losing power. I’ve been through enough of them to know that’s a possibility.


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 477
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge [Re: kapSt.Cloud]
      #114508 - Thu Nov 10 2022 08:45 AM

This was no hurricane, the NOAA data doesn't support it. From the NHC official updates:

7PM - Freeport, Grand Bahama = gust to 61 mph
10PM - Juno Beach Pier = gust of 55 mph, Settlement Point, Grand Bahama = gust of 55 mph
1AM - buoy 25 miles east of Cape Canaveral = gust to 67 mph

Other confirmed NWS reports, click the 71 mph wind link on this page for the official Twitter feed:
https://www.axios.com/2022/11/10/hurricane-nicole-florida

Peak gusts (NOT sustained)
73 mph at Playalinda Beach
70 mph at Melbourne
70 mph at Indialantic
67 mph at Patrick Air Force Base
60 mph at New Smyrna Beach
66 mph at Sebastian Inlet and
58 mph at Vero Beach.

These all occurred during the "hurricane" and none of them met the criteria. #science

I have no idea why the NHC continues to have this disconnect from estimated winds aloft and true ground speed winds, you know the kind the public actually feels the effects of. Despite whatever damage might have occurred nobody in FL or the Bahamas experienced a Cat 1 with Nicole, because in reality it was a strong TS.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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kapSt.Cloud
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Reged: Fri
Posts: 50
Loc: Long Beach, MS
Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #114513 - Thu Nov 10 2022 11:40 AM

You are correct! Why does the NHC and the local weather continue with such statements? At 12:30 this morning the local weather reporters were calling it “Hurricane Nicole”! Then the, cough, cough, meteorologists were all a gush tracking Nicole as a Cat 1 while crossing the state! The NHC tracking map showed “H” before landfall. St. Cloud was to get hurricane force winds. At least 75 mph winds. The eye was being tracked over us. Good Grief!

Odd thing though, while continuing to check outside I was wondering where are the winds? We’re about 50 miles from either coast. No driving rain. No squalls. No nothing which resembled even a lowly tropical storm!

This is exactly why people don’t pay heed to the warnings to evacuate. As a result when the big ones hit such as Ian…people die!

Edited by kapSt.Cloud (Thu Nov 10 2022 02:33 PM)


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GeorgeN
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 33
Loc: Wesley Chapel FL
Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #114515 - Thu Nov 10 2022 12:30 PM

Quote:

This was no hurricane, the NOAA data doesn't support it.
.




IMHO the storm info has been grossly mismanaged. From the absurd 7pm chart, to the overinflated wind estimates; I'm really disappointed with the "professionals". Last night, the major plots were all stating the storm was in 3 different locations. Today, the wind estimates are still way above the real wind speeds. I'm not sure if this is because if the storms subtropical nature or something else. The trajectory and rainfall estimates have been accurate, but windspeed should not have been this overestimated.
Is it too late in the season for the hurricane hunters to be flying? Seems like the models are not aligning like they usually do after landfall.

--------------------
Wesley Chapel FL - since 1990
Previous resident of North Miami and Merritt Island


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 477
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge [Re: GeorgeN]
      #114518 - Thu Nov 10 2022 02:01 PM

Quote:

The trajectory and rainfall estimates have been accurate, but windspeed should not have been this overestimated.
Is it too late in the season for the hurricane hunters to be flying?




The hunters were flying in the storm like normal: http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon....;product=vortex - Only once did they find surface winds above 74 and even that was an estimate. Make sense over water where you do not have instrumentation but once over land they knew it wasn't blowing that hard. Here is the Vero Beach Airport data: https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KVRB.html the highest gust I see was 58 and this location was pretty much dead center right after landfall. You can see when the eye passed over as the wind dropped to just 5 after blowing from N then switching to the S. Granted there were likely higher gust as they are only showing hourly data.

The wind speed problem has been going on for DECADES, I've complained about here before: https://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat...true#Post72872.

I am 90% sure Ian was rated a good +30 MPH above what was really going on, I look forward to the offseason reports because those contain verified ground data. I have no idea why the NHC continues to give what are clearly flight level winds. I get it - the storm is blowing and they measure those winds with an aircraft, but people live at sea level so the information should reflect that reality. Not only is the speed wrong but the wind field itself was way overstated. Ignoring the 7PM map mistake (which was hilarious) they still show Tampa getting TS winds right now. But local conditions (NOAA data from the airport) currently shows winds 24 gusting to 37... which, again by definition, is not at TS levels. I just don't understand the disconnect.


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GeorgeN
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 33
Loc: Wesley Chapel FL
Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #114519 - Thu Nov 10 2022 02:40 PM

Quote:



The wind speed problem has been going on for DECADES, I've complained about here before: https://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat...true#Post72872.

I am 90% sure Ian was rated a good +30 MPH above what was really going on, I look forward to the offseason reports because those contain verified ground data. I have no idea why the NHC continues to give what are clearly flight level winds. I get it - the storm is blowing and they measure those winds with an aircraft, but people live at sea level so the information should reflect that reality. Not only is the speed wrong but the wind field itself was way overstated. Ignoring the 7PM map mistake (which was hilarious) they still show Tampa getting TS winds right now. But local conditions (NOAA data from the airport) currently shows winds 24 gusting to 37... which, again by definition, is not at TS levels. I just don't understand the disconnect.




Do you think this may be due to an overreliance on models like the GFS (which is known for not being accurate over land).
While the new Euro models do look at topology, it is known that the GFS and older models work best on open water or flat land.
Granted, most of Florida is flat, but even a few tall trees make a difference in cutting windspeed. It seems the windspeed projections are only good until the storm makes landfall, and even then the estimates are accurate for only a few miles inland.
I did see some 80-100mph gusts recorded by NASA at the Cape, so I believe those are accurate. But those were from tall towers that are right on the coast. That isn't a real world analogy to a standard house.

--------------------
Wesley Chapel FL - since 1990
Previous resident of North Miami and Merritt Island


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kapSt.Cloud
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 50
Loc: Long Beach, MS
Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #114521 - Thu Nov 10 2022 03:16 PM

“ I am 90% sure Ian was rated a good +30 MPH above what was really going on, I look forward to the offseason reports because those contain verified ground data.”

You are correct again. But, why was Andrew upgraded from a Cat 4 to a Cat 5. IMO, it didn’t make much difference in the destruction.

Our local news is showing in Wilbur-By-The-Sea homes and large condos collapsing into the sea. The water is washing out the foundations, some including swimming pools. It’s almost surreal seeing the homes with plywood on the windows for protection against the storm’s winds…just to watch them disappear due to water. Why do they permit structures to be built so close to water? These include tall condos. Law enforcement is going from door to door telling people to evacuate. As usual some are staying. Look for them to wave goodbye as their homes collapse into the sea taking them with their homes!

We in Osceola County are currently under a tropical storm warming. Oh, well…

Local news continues to refer to the storm as Hurricane Nicole.

Edited by kapSt.Cloud (Thu Nov 10 2022 03:57 PM)


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 477
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge [Re: GeorgeN]
      #114522 - Thu Nov 10 2022 04:30 PM

Quote:

Do you think this may be due to an overreliance on models like the GFS (which is known for not being accurate over land).

I did see some 80-100mph gusts recorded by NASA at the Cape, so I believe those are accurate. But those were from tall towers that are right on the coast. That isn't a real world analogy to a standard house.




The model data is used predictions - IE: the storm will reach this location on this day and at this intensity in the future, but once a storm can be observed directly, in real time, either by aircraft or ground stations you no longer need predictive modeling for wind speed. Same goes for the wind field, they know what the winds are, we literally have hundreds of weather stations on the land and sea these days, so I strongly feel they should adjust the storm graphics to reflect that data. Future intensity forecasting has always been challenging while track forecasting has gotten way more accurate in comparison: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml

...and correct on the winds recorded at the Cape.

Quote:

But, why was Andrew upgraded from a Cat 4 to a Cat 5.




I actually believe Andrew is what started this betting-the-over trend in wind speed reporting. Better to say its going to be worse then get caught with your pants down using a weaker forecast, basically its a CYA move. Andrew was a 5 but the NHC didn't know enough about such monsters because they were so rare, so call it a 4. Then as Andrew made landfall the instrumentation failed... wind levels were literally off the charts. Years later with better tools and reviewing the data they changed its official status. Part of the driving force behind the revisit was trying to put the damage into historical perspective and get the building codes adjusted to handle possible future storms. Many people cried foul at the Cat 4 rating due the intense damage, they even brought in tornado specialists to explain what they were seeing because the hurricane scientists had no frame of reference for the devastation.

Sources:
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/andrew.html
https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMID...urricane-Andrew


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kapSt.Cloud
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 50
Loc: Long Beach, MS
Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #114523 - Thu Nov 10 2022 05:47 PM

Do you believe it would have been reclassified a Cat 5 from a Cat 4 if the homes hadn’t been so shabbily built? This led to catastrophic destruction. The destruction in Mississippi from Katrina was just as bad if not worse. It occurred from storm surge with lower wind speed. The instruments during Camille 1969 broke after recording 175 mph sustained winds.

“Many people cried foul at the Cat 4 rating due the intense damage, they even brought in tornado specialists to explain what they were seeing because the hurricane scientists had no frame of reference for the devastation.”

All they had to do was look at photos from the:

Labor Day Hurricane of 1935: 185-mph in Florida

Hurricane Camille (1969): 175-mph in Mississippi

Galveston, Texas (1900) 140-mph estimation, but where upwards to 12,000 people perished


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 477
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge [Re: kapSt.Cloud]
      #114524 - Fri Nov 11 2022 01:54 PM

Yes the construction was very much to blame. After Andrew we went into our attic (house built in the 80s in central Broward) and sure enough 60-70% of the hurricane straps were attached to nothing, zip, nada. You could see where the roof nails missed the trusses. So our roof was held down by only its own weight, if the wind had blown over about a Cat 3 I bet it would have failed too. My current house was built in 93, right after Andrew when they actually enforced the codes, we took the eyewall of Wilma (Cat 3 landfall, Cat 2 over land) and lost a fewn roof cap tiles but that was it. Just look at the fancy homes built on pilings (so no surge) that survived Ian... we can build hurricane resistant structures but they are expensive. Water is 100X worse then wind in terms of damage which should surprise nobody given how much water weighs.

My theory is after the Andrew reclassification I believe the NHC started adding 15% to all wind calculations to ensure they never have to admit they under-estimated things. Do I need to adjust my tinfoil hat? Maybe but the data always comes in with winds below what the NHC reports during landfall.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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