cieldumort
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A hybrid cyclone in the Mediterranean Sea southwest of Greece is largely forecast to intensify and possibly acquire more subtropical to tropical characteristics over the next several days to week. The 09/05/0z run of the EURO loops Daniel south, then east, deepening to a 993 hPa hybrid cyclone in the eastern Med by Tue. September 12th.
This cyclone, dubbed Storm Daniel by Greece, is already producing life-threatening and reportedly, life-taking, flash flooding. Forecast model rainfall totals are in the feet for some parts of the country over the next 72 hours.
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cieldumort
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cieldumort
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cieldumort
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cieldumort
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Storm Daniel Image cr. Zoom Earth
Moisture flowing into and wrapping around subtropical Storm Daniel can be seen in this nighttime IR with Moderate/Heavy Rain and Low/Surface Wind overlays, from Zoom Earth.
Istanbul, Türkiye is now also experiencing locally catastrophic, life-threatening flooding.
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cieldumort
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Storm Daniel is largely forecast by the most recent runs of and to generally loop around the southern Med and then cross Türkiye to possibly reacquire more subtropical to tropical features itself, or merge with another low, once in the Black Sea.
This is a potentially long-lived flooding event for locations along the eastern Mediterranean, and perhaps even Black Sea.
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cieldumort
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cieldumort
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Storm Daniel appears to have become fully tropical today, as it continues tracking further south than earlier forecast and over much more supportive SSTs in the Southern Mediterranean.
Storm Daniel is now expected to move inland, making landfall somewhere along the coast of northeastern Libya later tonight or early Sunday. Remnant moisture may still be swept up to the northeast, but the cyclone itself does not appear to have any chance of regeneration once falling apart well inland over Libya.
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cieldumort
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cieldumort
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cieldumort
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cieldumort
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As can be seen in the satellite loop above shared from Simon Proud, @simon_sat on X, Storm Daniel had become significantly more tropical heading into landfall and continued somewhat intact across much of northern Libya and Egypt. In fact, copious remnant moisture that travelled northeast from there lead to at least one more round of flooding, this time in the Gaza Strip this morning.
The death toll from Storm Daniel in Libya alone has now exceeded 7,000 according to reports citing the Mayor of Derna, Libya, with as many as another 13,000 more still missing and feared dead. "Bodies keep washing up from the sea."
Another 40,000 have been dispalced
US AID has compiled a list of 13 vetted organizations where you can help the victims of the Storm Daniel Libya flood, The Weather Channel reports.
Flooding in Lybia continued well inland The Weather Channel: Flooding in Libya Spread For Nearly 100 Miles.
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IsoFlame
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When weather events such as catastrophic cyclone Daniel occur, I try to look back for precedent events to understand what the odds of re-occurrence may be. What were the odd of this event happening? 1 in 500-1000 years would be an uneducated guess. Maybe a similar event occurred in Biblical times.
Has global weather gone bonkers, or are there just too many of us living tenuously in dated infrastructure on vulnerable coasts with a wealth of satellite data documenting the ensuing human carnage?
I don't buy into either camp on the climate change issue... but I do believe that there are too many living where we shouldn't on a planet relying on a dying star to sustain life as we have known it in the past 500 years.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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cieldumort
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Reliable data shows that the earth is warming, with waters also warming. Most scientists have concluded that this is a consequence of human activity.
Whatever the cause (I'm convinced it is human activity, but I want to save causal discussions for other threads as they seem to go off the rails), some studies have been made to tease out the impacts on Medicanes with global warming.
This study from 2020 Modelling a tropical-like cyclone in the Mediterranean Sea under present and warmer climate suggests that in a warmer world, medicanes would become even more tropical ("once the cyclone shifts to a deep warm core, the structure of the deep warm core is strengthened, and consequently, some ensembles of simulated cyclones reach much larger values of deep warm core"), as well as induce some changes to their preferred tracks.
There are some initial statements made in the above referenced study that I consider definitionally incorrect, biased and reject out of hand. These are found in the following paragraph Quote:
These tropical-like cyclones are called Mediterranean hurricanes or medicanes (this term is used hereafter). Although there are many similarities between medicanes and tropical cyclones, there are also clear differences between them. Firstly, the lifetime of medicanes is shorter than most tropical cyclones. Secondly, the development of tropical cyclones generally requires that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) exceed the empirical threshold of 26 â—¦C. However, SSTs in the Mediterranean Sea are almost never this warm, with autumn and winter SSTs varying from around 18 to 23 â—¦C in the current climate (e.g. Shaltout and Omstedt, 2014; Fig. 2a). This is much lower than the empirical threshold of 26 â—¦C for tropical cyclone formation and the occurrence of tropical cyclones over such cold SSTs is very rare even in the tropics (cf. Pacific and Atlantic cold tongue; e.g. Jin, 1996; Caniaux et al., 2011). Another difference between medicanes and tropical cyclones is that the formation of medicanes is generally triggered by an intrusion of trough-like systems or cut-off lows over the Mediterranean
Breaking them down:
1. "Firstly, the lifetime of medicanes is shorter than most tropical cyclones."
The lifetime of a Tropical Cyclone does not bear on whether or not it is a Tropical Cyclone. While it is true that most Medicanes in their tropical phase are shorter-lived than most TCs in other basins, the same can be said of many TCs in other basins, particularly the North Atlantic.
That they are shorter-lived than "most" TCs around the world is just irrelevant.
2. "Secondly, the development of tropical cyclones generally requires that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) exceed the empirical threshold of 26 â—¦C."
This is also simply not correct. Many Tropical Cyclones, especially those that develop from disturbances other than Easterly African Waves (AEWs), form over waters at or below 26 â—¦C.
3. "Another difference between medicanes and tropical cyclones is that the formation of medicanes is generally triggered by an intrusion of trough-like systems or cut-off lows"
It's as if the study authors never heard about "home-grown" Tropical Cyclones, which occur in all hurricane basins to greater or lesser extents. It doesn't matter the source disturbance. Once a cyclone has transitioned into a Tropical Cyclone, it is by definition, a Tropical Cyclone.
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IsoFlame
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Thank you for the link and critical analysis. Would the destruction and death toll from Daniel rank in the top 5 Mediterranean TC's in the satellite era?
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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cieldumort
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Quote:
Thank you for the link and critical analysis. Would the destruction and death toll from Daniel rank in the top 5 Mediterranean TC's in the satellite era?
Thanks for the kind words.
According to Wikipedia, Storm Daniel ranks as both the costliest and deadliest "Medicane" ever known: Storm Daneil - Wikipedia . I've seen nothing to indicate otherwise.
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