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General Discussion >> 2023 Forecast Lounge

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IsoFlame
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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
97L Lounge
      #114828 - Tue Oct 24 2023 05:03 PM

SST's are supportive, moisture should be adequate and in the absence of additional strong fronts, the last several GFS runs may be on to something (possibly a hurricane) spinning up in the NW Caribbean Sea the first week in November, then drifting north as a strengthening TC approaching western Cuba around the 8th.




The area of disturbed weather forecast by the GFS to be percolating in the eastern Caribbean roughly around this time +/- has materialized and is now being tracked as an Invest, 97L, and the title has been updated accordingly - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Mon Oct 30 2023 11:32 PM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Hurricane in the NW Caribbean Sea in early November [Re: IsoFlame]
      #114829 - Wed Oct 25 2023 10:21 AM

This 0z GFS is certainly an interesting run. On the other hand, the GFS has been wishcasting development in this region ad infinitum this season and is batting zero.

Just six hours later, the 06Z drops the development in the Carib, but develops the futurecane northeast of there and sends a weaker version out to sea, suggesting that development in the W ATL is very possible (all models suggest this), but exact intensity and location are far from certain.

Taking a look at two Globals that have performed better overall than the GFS this season, their 0z runs are as follows

0Z ECMWF - Nothing until the very end of the run on Nov 4th, which advertises a broad area of low pressure in the extreme southern Caribbean on 0z Nov 4

0z GEM - Advertises a cross-over from EPAC's 92E (a current system with NHC 70% odds of development, and itself is actually partially old TD 21 that just made landfall in Nicaragua). This run of the GEM (Canadian model) has 92E (then a tropical cyclone) cross over Central America and land in the extreme western Caribbean just offshore of Belize on Oct 30, barely hanging on as a TD at best, before washing out over or just offshore of the Yucatan at the end of run 0z Nov 4.


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IsoFlame
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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Hurricane in the NW Caribbean Sea in early November [Re: cieldumort]
      #114830 - Thu Oct 26 2023 03:06 PM

Yo-yo GFS wish-casting again 12Z. Even though this model has cried wolf this season, occasionally GFS far-casting latches on to potential days in advance of other models. Given the rich history of late season TC's spinning up in the western Caribbean, crossing Cuba then impacting the FL Keys, S. FL and the northern Bahamas, any model's suggestion of any potential in this region has me monitoring each run like a hawk.

I still have "fond" memories of fighting Wilma's 80 mph wind gusts trying to secure/screw the remaining fields on the newly installed "tacked off" panels of the unfinished metal roof (from 2004 season damage)of my stilt house 1/2 mile from the Indian River near Titusville, watching gusts peel several of the panels off (nearly with me on them!) like opening a sardine can.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Hurricane in the NW Caribbean Sea in early November [Re: IsoFlame]
      #114831 - Fri Oct 27 2023 12:41 PM

I've been keeping a lookout for buy-in from other globals and there has been a little, but most of them keep whatever develops away from Florida and/or a far less potent system. It appears that GFS is trending much weaker and offshore as well (and we'll gladly take that!)

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IsoFlame
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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Hurricane in the NW Caribbean Sea in early November [Re: cieldumort]
      #114833 - Sat Oct 28 2023 05:04 PM

Regardless of any TC development, note the gradient late next week of the 1040mb high centered over NY state down to the 992mb low south of the western end of Cuba. Centered along that ITVO of the Cape, 12mb of this gradient will span the length of Florida's east coast. If this pans out, we could see several days of 20-30 kt ENE onshore wind (gusting gale force at times)- not good for Volusia's still recovering battered beaches.



--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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Robert
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Gfs is trying to drive everyone madd [Re: IsoFlame]
      #114834 - Sat Oct 28 2023 08:31 PM

The GFS always has some big system hitting florida this season at the end of the run.. it was showing the 28th then the 29th, 30th and so on weeks ago it and during the beginning of the season, with every wave voting through as a major.. it's just hard to look past day 3 anymore..I been thinking it's because it sees a pattern and naturally maths out that the current sheared patter. Won't last forever and should turn around, but it does not.
Every day the new input goes in and it resets. It sees the pattern remaining each run then mates ot out that it won't last and conditions for development return, but then it doesent again.
So each run it keeps kicking the can out down the road.
During non elnino season when conditions actually do get better it's a great logic, then by each run the good conditions do unfold its pretty accurate because the math actually mathed out, and a strong positove feed back makes it accurate, but this season there is a strong negative feed back, it sees what it paints what it's math logic think should happen , but its not accounting for the persistent jet, the elnino or whatever the pattern is not turning out each day like the math says so now we're seeing the major on the 13th of November tommorow it will be the 14th and so on...


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Hurricane in the NW Caribbean Sea in early November [Re: IsoFlame]
      #114835 - Mon Oct 30 2023 11:51 AM

There are two features of interest in the Caribbean at this time, which may complicate the forecast a bit.

NHC is eyeballing the trof that also appears to be what the GFS has been, in a general sense, expecting off and on for several runs, and this seems to be the disturbance that the GFS spins up into a hurricane in the run originally referenced at the start of this thread.

West of this location is a weak low, which is what some runs of other models seem to have been sniffing out, or at least creating a merger with the trof NHC is now highlighting. The last few runs of the GFS does recognize the weak low, but appears to subsume it into Invest 96L (the system well north of the Caribbean and presently near the Bahamas). That does not look like a very plausible outcome, but possible.

Given that the GFS "mathing" has finally hit a ball in generally the right location at about the right time and in an environment that is both low to moderate shear and high ocean heat content, the original run referenced to in the OP seems to have at least some merit.

It will be interesting to see if and if so, how, these two features interact. One or both could develop. NHC has only mentioned the trof and has increased their bid to 50% odds of development within 7 days.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #114836 - Tue Oct 31 2023 01:35 PM

A crowded field in the western Atlantic and far eastern Pacific, within limited bands of favorable conditions, is probably complicating things further for 97L. Frankly, 96L (which has been dropped by NHC altogether for development odds) and the non-tagged weak low now just south of Cuba, look much healthier. Still, 97L is forecast to track west, towards the western or southwestern Caribbean, where conditions for development could be more favorable.

A quick summary of some of today's 12Z Global runs currently out:

GFS: Sends a broad area of w-e elongated low pressure towards central America and lingers it, without any apparent significant development, along the coast of, over, or either side of Central America, where 97L either washes out, or possibly merges with the approach of another disturbance from the west during the middle of November to cook something up near Belize. Basically, this is a bust run for 97L. The disturbance, for all practical intents and purposes, is lost after this weekend. It is worth noting however, that this could still imply a serious rain-maker for central America.

GEM: Sends a broad area of low pressure towards Central America, where over next weekend, it washes out.

ICON: Appears to merge 97L with the weak low now centered south of Cuba and cooks up what might be a broad TD that moves into Central America Saturday Nov 4


Early indications of more buy-in from hurricane models, but they're likely less reliable unless and until there is an actual vortex worth tracking, which as of now, there is not.


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