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Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued for area in the East-Central Atlantic, only with 10% chance for development, not expected to do much.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 240 (Idalia) , Major: 240 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 240 (Idalia) Major: 240 (Idalia)
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Archives 2020s >> 2023 Forecast Lounge
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst


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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
22L Lounge
      #114840 - Fri Nov 10 2023 01:43 PM

Seems like the GFS has been calling for a TC to develop in the western Caribbean Sea for over a month, now the NHC 7-day tropical weather outlook mentions the possibility:

A broad area of low pressure could form in the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it meanders over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


The model-forecast area of broad low pressure in the western Caribbean has materialized and is now being tracked as an Invest, 98L, and the title has been updated accordingly
- Ciel 2023-11-15 18:00z

TWENTY-TWO 11-16-23 18:00z - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Thu Nov 16 2023 08:15 PM)

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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 295
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Broad area of low pressure developing next week in the SW Caribbean [Re: IsoFlame]
      #114841 - Mon Nov 13 2023 02:05 PM

In addition to better chances for the SW Caribbean low to eventually develop this week, now there's modeling that suggests the non-tropical low that soaked coastal TX/LA last weekend will eject across the northern GOMEX this week (bringing much needed rain to the Florida peninsula), then wrap up into a fairly strong (989 mb) hybrid low off Florida's east coast later in the week before departing rapidly NE over the Atlantic.by next weekend.

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

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