Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2104
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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At least a couple of active areas to remind us that the season is far from over. In the western Gulf of Mexico a strong area of upper divergence has sparked a large area of convection. Although the area is now in a diurnal decline, it has persisted for a couple of days and it has acquired some cyclonic curvature. The area is currently (21/03Z) focused at 22N 95.5W and has a general motion to the east northeast at 15 knots. The models keep trying to do something with this area and move it along the northern Gulf coast in a couple of days.
A strong wave near 19.5N 53W has been moving to the west northwest at 15 knots and continues to support heavy convection. It is also in a downward diurnal cycle at the moment and has the potential for slow development over the next couple of days.
A third wave in the far eastern Atlantic is rather weak and only has limited thunderstorm activity associated with it. It faces an environment that will not promote much development for awhile.
The Atlantic ridge has been weakened and split by a large upper level low in the central north Atlantic. The western segment of the ridge has been displaced somewhat to the south. Northerly shear is in place between 85W and 70W while westerly shear exists between 70W and 60W along and south of 20N. Below 15N there is very little shear from 60W to the African coast.
The basin may currently be inactive in terms of named storms but I don't see that condition lasting for too much longer.
ED
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
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lorio
Registered User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2
Loc: Putnam Co. FL
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TPC's Tropical Discussion indicates a very large anti-cyclone over GOM and surrounding areas. The sat images appears to show cyclonic circulation at low levels. Is there something really developing, and if so would it not be massive?
I'd love to hear from someone with expertise. 
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Expertise, I have little.... but the pressures are still on the high side and rising, a little wind but it is the tail end of a front. Got to get organized yet 
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Looks like the models are taking a little tour around the gulf now. Guess we get to pick and choose where we want a low to form. Lot's of disorganized weather in the GOM but nothing a sure thing. Watch mode again I guess. Hopefully the URL worked this time, if not I will keep trying...
click here
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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You got it 
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1201
Loc: South Florida
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Never forget to remember ..
Bobbi
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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AlexK
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
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The highest wind gust I found was around 30 mph, and the lowest current pressure around 29.85 It doesnt look like anything is happening quickly
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AlexK
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
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Pressures seem to be falling, but the lowest I've found is around 1009. Highest sustained wind around 32. Still pretty disorganized
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2798
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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I'm putting together a special section on Isabel, and am looking for any photos or digital video clips you may have. I've got my own photos I took, but a larger story will be made from it.
email me at mike@flhurricane.com with the photos, stories, or anything of that nature.
I still am without power so It'll be a while. Thanks all.
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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Looks really wild. I have rarely seen a formation like that. I guess the wind blowing it around makes it look sort of like Halloweenish.
The pressures that were referred to in the earlier posts, was that in reference to the GOM or to Isabel remnants or the storm out around P.R.?
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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AlexK
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
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They were for the gulf
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1201
Loc: South Florida
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look like a curtain of "nasty"
cant say anything looks too favorable...suppose give it a few days to make proper transition from effects on air flow from Isabel
noticed in the past sometimes is like it all has to settle back down a bit out there after a big Cane
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Agree with your thoughts there Bobbi, after a Cat2,3,4,and 5 has terrorized the Atlantic, I would say that the basin could use a little chill time to get itself back together again! She was for sure a wicked woman!!
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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AlexK
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
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It looks like the first decent wave since TD14 is coming off Africa tonight
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1201
Loc: South Florida
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you better not be teasing us here or I'll be very upset...imagine is the same nice looking wave that was over Africa the other day
... looking...hope its there
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1201
Loc: South Florida
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but where is its center..seems to have two centers of deep reds...one high, and one low
which is it?
looks nice tho
thanks
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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The next two weeks will be a perfect time for the tropics to take a rest. My Cruise to the Bahamas is just a week away and I'd like to be able to go 
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Hey all, have a family member fallen ill so we have to get on the road north. Since I have to leave the GOM will probably bust wide open! Anyway keep it covered and I will check in when we return.
Coop
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Anyone notice Arizona is about to get hit with Hurricane Marty? Looks like it should still have some decent winds when it comes up from Mexico. I'm assuming Arizona isn't use to getting that amount of water. It's very strange how if a tropical depression is about to hit Honduras we're all interested in it...but when a decent hurricane is about to hit Arizona we couldn't care less, as it formed in a different ocean
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