MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4360
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Tropcial Depression 15 has formed south of Bermuda, it could be considered subtropical as well. Its forecast to move northward and eventually make landfall in Canada.
More to come later.
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
- [jc]
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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First visibles of the day came up and there were those long spidery bands and it was twisting.
Canada, huh?
Think its only time til we have a second system out there.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Agreed Lois. I think we'll have the potential long tracker from the CV, and possibly something in the GOM in the next couple of days. As HF noted on the last board, the GOM needs to be watched carefully as anything that develops could affect landmasses quickly.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html
It looks like to me that the system is curving, more to the NW, than the NE.
Thoughts?
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I thought so too earlier...even better image with the IR:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-ir4-loop.html
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1177
Loc: fl
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TD15 should make it up to TS status within the next 24 hours but shouldnt be more then that and will merge with a frontal trough over the weekend and become subtropical-extratropical down the road. Current status has this tropical but with midlevel nontropical charactoristics.
Wave over the central Atlantic could become a TD over the next day or 2. This system if any will move NW then N and be no threat to the islands.
Canadian model was the 1st to pick up on a system in the NW carribean 2 days back. Generally the Candian model overdoes nonexisting systems into 1. Most models though do pick up on something though forming there but slowly. Overall pattern shows more energy coming into the NW carribean from the east and south. I expect a circulation to form in concenses with the ETA on saturday evening or night. A slow n motion will happen. Too far out to give exact and timely turns but eventually whatever is there by weds a movement NE across florida due to #2 through will bring whatever weather with the system NE. scottsvb
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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From the /TPC afternoon discussion:
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E ATLC ALONG 36W S OF 18N MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE WAVE/LOW HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE AND
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST ABOUT 15 MPH.
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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If you are to believe the SHIPS model forecast, we already have Juan (TD15). 48 hours out, he is forecast to be near hurricane strength. I think the 5:00 update will give us TS Juan.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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SunNFun
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
Loc: Redington Beach, FL
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Just a note to all.. very tropical weather on the beach here today.. at 3:00 pm we are seeing high convection which is early for us but mostly forming 5 miles inland because of the seabreeze. The gulls are acting funny though as they have started migrating early today on bird island which is a sure sign of some rough weather to come..
everyone feel the little blob in the Gulf is just a rain maker that is heading directly for Tampa? I am starting to even see some twist to the mass on the northern side but maybe it is nothing but cumulous clouds?
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Nrlmry.navy.mil tropical cyclone site just upgraded 98L to 16L No Name., so I think we'll see an upgrade to TD status at 5p.
TG
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
National Hurricane Center NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN (AL162003) ON 20030925 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
030925 1800 030926 0600 030926 1800 030927 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.5N 37.7W 12.7N 40.1W 14.2N 42.0W 15.6N 43.4W
BAMM 11.5N 37.7W 12.5N 40.2W 13.9N 42.4W 15.0N 44.0W
A98E 11.5N 37.7W 11.7N 40.8W 12.1N 43.7W 12.8N 46.3W
LBAR 11.5N 37.7W 12.4N 40.6W 13.9N 43.3W 15.2N 45.8W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 49KTS 58KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 49KTS 58KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
030927 1800 030928 1800 030929 1800 030930 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.0N 44.5W 19.7N 45.4W 22.0N 43.5W 21.3N 37.6W
BAMM 16.0N 45.4W 17.4N 47.6W 19.1N 50.2W 20.1N 51.8W
A98E 13.5N 48.5W 15.0N 52.4W 16.9N 55.9W 19.2N 58.4W
LBAR 16.4N 48.1W 19.0N 51.4W 22.4N 52.4W 24.4N 49.9W
SHIP 65KTS 73KTS 67KTS 58KTS
DSHP 65KTS 73KTS 67KTS 58KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 37.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 35.1W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 10.9N LONM24 = 31.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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As of 5:00 we have Tropical Storm Juan and TD 16. Things are starting to pick up. 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Juan may brush Bermuda then go northward to the Canadian Maritimes & TD16 looks like it'll be a fish spinner. 
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Hopefully soon-to-be Kate is a fish spinner. The early models take her to close to hurricane strength in 48 hrs., then leveling off. Most trend her north, away from the Leewards -- heading towards....yep...Bermuda. Those poor people don't need anymore anguish. They have already posted TS Warnings in Bermuda for a close brush with Juan; lets hope Kate makes the big turn. If anyone looks at the Weather Underground (or any other site) that lists the historical tracks of Sept. TDs within a couple hundred miles of TD 16, Florida has been hit TWICE directly (one was a CAT 2 and the other a CAT 3 near Jacksonville), and once brushed...so this will need to be watched until any northward turn begins. Hoping Kate just spins the fishes...
Historical tracks link:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200316_climo.html
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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both deepening. think juan may reach hurricane strength tomorrow, come within 100-150 miles of bermuda. dependent on how it phases, could still have something to it when it hits the canadian maritimes late in the weekend or early next week. as for t.d. 16.. should be a t.s., but doesn't have a subtropical ridge to push it across.. it will most likely get strong enough so it gets turned up near 50w, then get sheared away to where it begins to meander.. very unlikely a storm forming that far east so late in the season will make it acorss.
modeling has all kinds of stuff developing elsewhere, so we may not be done. there are model runs bringing a system out of the gulf ahead of the next amplification, model runs developing a storm in the western caribbean, keeping disturbed weather east of the islands and suggesting another system trying a go near 55w next week, and that deep layer low in the subtropics between bermuda and the azores which will retrograde under the ridge (sometimes these things will develop). note that of the listed possibilities, the best is the western caribbean.. though the exact evolution of those types of systems tend to happen slowly and out of pace with whatever modeling suggests. scottsvb has as good an idea as anyone there.
once we have kate, we've made gray's september quota (at least on the total numbers).
isn't amazing?
HF 2146z25september
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Also amazing how a few hours can make such a difference. Tropics have been busy today I see! Hopefully Juan will not have too much of an impact on Bermuda, and if kate goes fishing early enough then the islands will be spared again. The gulf sure is feeding a lot of moisture into central florida today. We had severe storms and some really wicked lightening . As far as the GOM is concerned think that it still has a few suprises left this season. Have to admit that I felt that the Gulf would be active this year but really think it will supersede even what I thought. Steve, I orginally thought that your numbers for the GOM was high but I think you have a good chance here of nailing it fairly close.
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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more going on in the tropics tho in miami...lots of rain
rain tropical rains, humid...very humid
watching and waiting
Tomorrow should be a little busier so I wanted to take the time to wish everyone round here a Happy Jewish New Year and think... will be a newly named storm as well.
Something about the tropics and the "high holidays" and can't think of too many when someone was not wondering somewhere about some possible depression.
Old timers down in Miami used to talk about the 26 Hurricane that took place on Yom Kippur.. which shifts around depending on the calendar but was peak of the season that year. Lunar calendar not solar.
So...here we are, at the very end of September... a few days left and we have an Atlantic System.. a CV wave that developed and everyone is watching to see if something in the Carib develops.
About par for the course as we go into October..wouldn't you say?
Love to hear some discussion on whether the mess in the Carib develops or just pumps heavy rain towards Florida.
Personally... I think IF something does develop at this rate it would come in further south than northern Florida. I know earlier models showed North and West Florida as possible targets but... seems to me... with the rain hanging over the southern half of the state...if it did develop...would have a chance of a more southern florida hit than the big bend area.
My thoughts...what are yours?
Bobbi
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Hey Bobbi, good possibility of that. The NWS Tampa/Ruskin mentioned that the we should start to dry out a little in my area as we approach the extended forcast period (Sun - Wed) Guess we will have to see how it pans out, but have a feeling that overall most of the state my be in for some wet weather as the remainder of the season plays out.
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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This is from Wxamerica, good guy... good writing, some thoughts...always give sources..either way looked at wv long time last night and dont think its a done deal with that beautiful TD going NW ... wouldn't count it out esp as situation with juan is evolving still...His FIRST scenario btw...was it going NW towards fishland but had this scenario too...
"Another possibility is a track beneath the 500MB weakness toward the Leeward Islands in about three or four days. This latter speculation may well carry with it threat of rapid intensification, as many of the numerical models suggest that a lateral heat ridge will form over the Sargasso Sea. That anticyclone, in turn, would position the depression over warmer waters and could even threaten the major islands within a week'
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Well...... suppose that is another option, will think about that one. Can't just totally dismiss it for sure,as anything is possible. Catch ya later Bobbi,have a good one! 
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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