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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4240
Loc: Orlando, FL
Lisa Hurricane Again, but Tropics Remain Mostly Quiet still
      #33520 - Sat Oct 02 2004 09:42 AM

Lisa has gained hurricane strength once again, far out in the eastern Atlantic, and fairly far north. Which came somewhat as a surprise. Still moving away from the US and Canada, so no threat to us.

Other than the western Caribbean it is with much great pleasure to say there isn't much going on in the Tropical Atlantic as far as new storm formation. The western Caribbean has never looked all that great to me watching it during the week, so I think the chances of that developing are fairly low.

The break is defnitely needed, but vigilance in the Atlantic will continue.

General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps

Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
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Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC,GFDL, JMA,NOGAPS,UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
Re: Lisa Hurricane Again, but Tropics Remain Mostly Quiet still [Re: MikeC]
      #33521 - Sat Oct 02 2004 09:49 AM

HEY, It's Saturday in Florida !!!!

and

No Hurricane !!!!

Life is good.


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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
From the NWS in Houston/Galveston [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #33522 - Sat Oct 02 2004 11:12 AM

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE GULF BY MID WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE STILL
FCST TO LINGER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THRU EARLY PART OF WEEK. LOTS
OF MOISTURE PROGGED TO HANG AROUND DOWN THERE. AS SFC HIGH MOVES
FURTHER EAST AND NEXT MID LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...ONSHORE
FLOW SHOULD TRANSPORT THE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. GFS AND THE CANADIAN
MODEL ARE ALSO HINTING AT ONE OF OUR FAMOUS HYBRID TYPE SYSTEMS
DEVELOPING OUT THERE. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL BUT ONE WAY OR
ANOTHER...THINK ITS A SAFE BET POPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
WED-FRI. 47



I posted about a week or so ago that the only way we would see any kind of system here in Texas is from some sort of "hybrid" system. Now it is being mentioned in our local NWS statement. I guess we will have to wait and see what happens.


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DMFischer
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 70
Loc: Palm Bay
Re: WoooHooo We have daylight! [Re: MikeC]
      #33523 - Sat Oct 02 2004 01:52 PM

Well life is good again and I am remembering why I love florida so much. It is so beautiful here. We took boards down from our windows for the first time in six weeks and it feels luxurious to have sunlight fill every room again. (we only boarded windows to the wind side of the house, so we had windows to leave by if needed.) The yard is still so mushy there are areas we can not mow yet and
Last night my son, in a rush to finish mowing what he could before the game, ran over the copper tubing and filter for the central a/c and sliced it into pieces, dumping 9 pounds of freon. As strapped as things have been, good lord. Landlord had it fixed but the bill was mine to pay. BUT we are cool again. Had some friends up in Eustes lose thier barn so we are going out to an old fashion barn rasing!
It is so nice to have clear blue skies and not a single swirl of confection anywhere in the caribbean or atlantic. I have heard rumors that we are entering a cycle that will put us into the same sort of senerio next year and for years after. Is this myth or based on some trend in the weather?? Sorry if someone has posted about this!

I hope everyone enjoys the sun this weekend, even if its to clean up. If anyone in my area needs a strong back, my son wants to jump in and help. Just shout.

Mom

--------------------
Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: WoooHooo We have daylight! [Re: DMFischer]
      #33524 - Sat Oct 02 2004 01:58 PM

Florida, a target. What do you mean Who knows. All I want is one weekend of doing nothing!

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Heather
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
Re: WoooHooo We have daylight! [Re: DMFischer]
      #33525 - Sat Oct 02 2004 01:59 PM

I am not sure about the weather pattern repeating, but I also would like to hear it from people who know. I've heard that this year was an anomaly. I have heard that we would be in this pattern for the next 2-4 years and OMG that this is the first season in a 20 year pattern. I would really like to know. The weather and storms are fascinating to a point, but right now we are all so exhausted. I don't know what I'd do if this were to become the norm.

--------------------
When it rains, it pours...


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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
Re: WoooHooo We have daylight! [Re: Heather]
      #33526 - Sat Oct 02 2004 02:38 PM

Heather, Im pretty sure this year was just an anomaly. Most likely something like this season wont happen again for a long time. At least I hope lol. So I advice folks in Flordia not to start packing there stuff and moving to Minnesota. (Like my parents want to do right now! lol) Have a good one ya'll.

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Second Shift
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 14
Loc: Iowa
Re: WoooHooo We have daylight! [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #33527 - Sat Oct 02 2004 03:06 PM

You may not all want to move up here just yet. Was 31 degrees here in Des Moines this AM. We've had a Florida tourism guy on TV that talks about the fact that the Miami-Sarasota area is still basically untouched, so COME ON DOWN!
We're sending many prayers your way!

---------------------------------------------------------------

Eat a corndog today Go Hawkeyes!


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Shalafi
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
Re: Lisa Hurricane Again, but Tropics Remain Mostly Quiet still [Re: MikeC]
      #33529 - Sat Oct 02 2004 06:06 PM

I can't tell you how happy I am that we have a weekend with NO foreseeable hurricane threat (not that I have to tell any of you...). What a relief. It is greatly needed.

--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!



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Ivy
Unregistered




Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #33532 - Sat Oct 02 2004 07:22 PM

What is a hybrid system?

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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 450
Loc: Georgia Tech
Re: WoooHooo We have daylight! [Re: Heather]
      #33533 - Sat Oct 02 2004 07:31 PM

Quote:

I am not sure about the weather pattern repeating, but I also would like to hear it from people who know. I've heard that this year was an anomaly. I have heard that we would be in this pattern for the next 2-4 years and OMG that this is the first season in a 20 year pattern. I would really like to know. The weather and storms are fascinating to a point, but right now we are all so exhausted. I don't know what I'd do if this were to become the norm.




Even though I'm not an expert on any of this, I'd have to say, in reality we don't know if this year was truely anomolous or not. While it might be unusual based on recent past, Climatologists simply do not have enough information to say just what is typical, *over the long haul.* As has been pointed out in articles, to most people's surprise, Climate shifts occur over the course of decades, not centuries or longer.

No one knows enough information to declare if the weather patterns that set up this year will occur again next year, or will become more likely to occur. I'm inclined to believe (from nothing more than general information that I've installed in my brain) that patterns will shift and increase the odds of landfalling storms. Not particularly florida, but more generally the US. I think the "Bermuda" High will continue to be a stronger than normal and influence CV hurrricanes and keep them from recurving as much as we've seen previously.

Keep in mind, this is just my gut feeling, Don't buy houses or sell houses based on my thoughts. I"m not an expert nor do I have any clue what I'm talking about

Mark


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston [Re: Ivy]
      #33534 - Sat Oct 02 2004 08:16 PM

A hybrid system is a storm which has some tropical characteristics and has other characteristics that are not tropical in nature. Its difficult to tell which is which by the way they look on say, a satellite page we laypersons might look at, but the meterologists can look at the way the storm behaves, what the pressures are and how the storm responds to the atmosphere around it and can tell that this system is or is not a hybrid. The hybrid storms usually appear late in the storm season around late October/November and they do some weird things sometimes like go the opposite direction that storms are expected to go according to the climate.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #33535 - Sat Oct 02 2004 08:41 PM

Guppiegrouper,

Good anwser overall, but "hybird" storms don't travel in different directions then what storms are suppose to travel, they just form in a different areas, that's why the storms travel in different directions; location is everything. Hybird storms are not hurricanes but can become them. Many times it hard to tell if the storm is a hybird storm, from a mid-latitude cyclone.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston [Re: Keith234]
      #33536 - Sat Oct 02 2004 10:19 PM

This is sort of off topic and sort of not. But I was just noticing on the Earthquake page I visit the pattern of earthquakes for the past 5 years and realized that a large majority of hurricanes or tropical systems travel over the same pathways as the earthquake patterns. It was quite interesting to me. this is the link:
http://www.iris.edu/seismon/
Note the pattern of the purple coloring which is the last 5 years of earthquake tremors.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #33537 - Sat Oct 02 2004 10:40 PM

Nice! I have been looking all day at this and know that someone will be able to relate these events....I wish it were me so I could retire It does make one begin to think and wonder. This may not be off topic at all in the end... but now I return to doing nothing.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #33539 - Sun Oct 03 2004 02:48 AM

There is a connection that has been hypothesized -- and all but proven -- by one of the preemininent hurricane/tropical meteorology professors out there that a landfalling major hurricane in the Atlantic tends to result in enough drag on the rotation of the Earth to cause a reaction in the tectonic plates, generally on the other side of the globe, a few days later in the form of an earthquake. It's happened at least a couple of times this year.

On Lisa -- finally, she's extratropical. Tomorrow should be the first day since the birth of Frances that the entire basin has lacked a storm -- a span that has stretched over a month since August 25th. It was really interesting to read the 11pm NHC discussion on the storm, mainly because I eat the transition stuff up...and they mentioned my "boss" and his work directly in the text. In any case though, knock on wood, we should be quiet for at least a short time to come.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3520
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Tropical Weather Outlook [Re: Clark]
      #33540 - Sun Oct 03 2004 03:10 AM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT OCT 02 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE National Hurricane Center IS ISSUING ITS LAST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM LISA AT 11 PM EDT...LOCATED OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 475 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES AND BECOMING extratropical.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EASTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. TROPICAL DEVELOPMET IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED OVER AND NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

Yessssss, thank you. NHC


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston [Re: Clark]
      #33541 - Sun Oct 03 2004 08:21 AM

That's very interesting. Do you know how much drag would be recieved? Because I'm doing a paper on the planets orbit's in particular the Earth's, and that could very well effect some secondary motion.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston [Re: Clark]
      #33542 - Sun Oct 03 2004 11:37 AM

Quote:

There is a connection that has been hypothesized -- and all but proven -- by one of the preemininent hurricane/tropical meteorology professors out there that a landfalling major hurricane in the Atlantic tends to result in enough drag on the rotation of the Earth to cause a reaction in the tectonic plates, generally on the other side of the globe, a few days later in the form of an earthquake.




Hmmm... I would really be interested in reading the research on this. Doesn't seem plausible that such comparitively superficial surface events like hurricanes could impact plate movements in a way that is statistically and scientifically measurable. Anecdotal evidence, sure, but determining the influence of a hurricane on a stress that has been building up over hundreds, thousands, if not millions of years seems a little far-fetched. Can you post a link to current literature on the idea?

--------------------
Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston [Re: cjzydeco]
      #33543 - Sun Oct 03 2004 11:45 AM

I have been keeping up with earthquake activity since I discoverd the site previously mentioned, about one year ago. In that time I noticed a flurry of earthquake activity that was almost constant back in the spring.
I hypothetize that the flurry of earthquake activity incidentally on the opposite side of the planet, contributed to the hurricane activity seen in the atlantic this year.
The earthquakes shake the atmosphere, and influence the strength, size, intensity of the hurricanes much as shaking a jar of water with a lid on it would. You might even compare it to shaking a jar of selzer water. The long range effects would be monumental! So in keeping with my theory: Winter could be very stormy for those effected because of this recent flurry of earthquake activity and where this occurs would be interesting to study. Please realize that I have not studied meterology and this is stuff off the top of my pointed little head. May not have any semblance of truth to it.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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