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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2333
Loc: Melbourne, FL
A Change of Season
      #33930 - Wed Oct 13 2004 10:37 AM

Subtropical Storm Nicole was wrapped into a strong extratropical low pressure system that moved north over Nova Scotia. Invest 97L, well southwest of the Azores, may acquire subtropical characteristics as it moves slowly westward, but is faces increasing wind shear as it does so. The rest of the basin is quiet.

A strong jetstream has closed off the Gulf of Mexico and even a baroclinic hybrid system seems unlikely. The far eastern Atlantic now shows increasing shear, so the Caribbean Sea remains as the only area that could still produce a tropical cyclone - but even that area is benign. Perhaps one more storm before this uncommon season finally ends - perhaps not. For those of us in Florida, the memories of this season will not fade quickly as we continue to repair and rebuild.
ED

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Even more on the links page.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: A Change of Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #33933 - Wed Oct 13 2004 11:32 AM

Thanks for the new thread, Ed.

You said a mouthful, and quite well...I might add.

If the season were to end today (yeah, right), I'd have nailed the # of TS & H's (but got Napoleon'ed on the MHs) of 14/8, unfortunately I went 14/8/3, when it now stands at 14/8/ 6 .

Let's hope this is it...I doubt we won't get at least one more TD or TS, but maybe the hurricane train has been derailed for the rest of 2004. As Ed said, this season ("The Season From Hell") won't fade away, either from memory or reality for a long time...

Peace for now.

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: A Change of Season [Re: LI Phil]
      #33936 - Wed Oct 13 2004 12:54 PM

Things seemed to have quieted down as the Atlantic has shut off for anything to develop east of 50/60, and the GOM has a deep trough progged to come in Thursday, with a frontal boundary Clearing the FL peninsula Friday! I still think that a major cane will come out of the SW Caribbean before all is said and done for 2004, probably the last week of October. This just based on the pattern and the models hinting at lowering pressure in that area as heights build in the western Atlantic and eastern seaboard during that time frame. Hopefully I'm wrong, and if anything develops it will encounter shear if it tries to come too far north, but there are still some virgin waters down there and conditions at the UL should be favorable for the end of the month as far as I can tell. After that winter should begin to set in across the CONUS. Still waiting for the insurance adjuster to come out. BTW, if you haven't registered for FEMA and had damage or needed to evacuate please register. There is assistance available. I got re-imbursed evacuating during Jeanne. Just save your receipts. Cheers!!

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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: A Change of Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #33939 - Wed Oct 13 2004 04:06 PM

Just want to jump in here and make probably the last post regarding to tropical weather for the rest of the season, if Matt was our last tropical assualt. Anyway, shear is on the increase throughout the entire atlantic basin, except for the Caribbean sea, but that still has some wind shear. By now wind shear becomes a very strong limiting factor. The water temps are decreasing and winter seems to be on it's jolly way here; really, it just called me on it's cellphone! Probably see another sub-tropical depression at most, maybe not but even if it did form it wouldn't be a threat to the U.S. Pacific is still on and with that supertyphoon recurving for Japan makes me wonder if we could yet again see another teleconnection with a storm off the east coast, the models seem to be picking up on it. Other than that, I think everything is just fine and dandy in the tropics. Hopefully this will be my last post regarding tropics for your sake and mine.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
Re: A Change of Season [Re: Keith234]
      #33941 - Wed Oct 13 2004 04:17 PM Attachment (448 downloads)

This season has been amazing, but Im glad its almost finally over. It feels like fall to me. By the way, I found an amazing picture from Penscola Beach I believe. A condo that was once 5 stories, only 2 now.

If the above link doesn't work. Try this one.-danielw http://attachments.flhurricane.com/cyclone/files/33941-ivan_13.jpg


Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 13 2004 11:03 PM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: A Change of Season [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #33942 - Wed Oct 13 2004 04:19 PM

like phil said, what ed said.
the warm ENSO conditions have begotten faster-than-normal westerlies across most of the basin, and wave energy of any amplitude is shearing off.. while SOI negative backing hasn't coincided with a strong amplification near the east coast to generate a sw caribbean disturbance. things are quiet and the current pattern doesn't favor a significant system threatening the u.s. the circulation in the north atlantic favors north and northeastward-moving systems.
looking out ahead in the models, they are showing something there near the colombian coast out past a week.. though the mid-latitude amplification needed to generate a response down there isn't perking in the models much. there's also another nicole-ish central atlantic feature late next week showing near bermuda. of course 97L is still meandering south of the azores, well outside the threat window for anything in the western atlantic.. but it hasn't transitioned so far and most globals indicate that the broad feature will spin down under increasing shear.
remotely interesting is the convergence near the yucatan, which has a considerable ridge aloft. it hasn't shown any tendency to develop, but it's persistence and location make it worth noting. with the shortwave energy progged to deepen up the east coast on thu/fri to it's north the possibility of a baroclinic jolt exists.
soi remains negative and some activity persists in the eastpac with lester along the mexican coast (and the disturbance to its south which is becoming more organized). another large typhoon should deepen and hook right to the south of japan going into next week. this indicates that the north atlantic shouldn't be limited to only hybrid-type cutoff systems if only a large enough amplification can happen in the eastern u.s.
that's long enough.. the season may be over after all. i wouldn't bet on it myself.
HF 2014z13october


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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
Re: A Change of Season [Re: HanKFranK]
      #33944 - Wed Oct 13 2004 04:37 PM

In the picture I attached, looks like surge and waves pounded out the bottom 2 stories which weakened the bottom and it collapsed.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: A Change of Season [Re: DroopGB31]
      #33945 - Wed Oct 13 2004 04:38 PM

Anyone besides me having problems viewing the attachment?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
Re: A Change of Season [Re: LI Phil]
      #33946 - Wed Oct 13 2004 04:43 PM

Sorry Phil, That was my first file I've ever attached. I clicked it myself and it worked.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: A Change of Season [Re: DroopGB31]
      #33947 - Wed Oct 13 2004 04:44 PM

No worries, it could very easily be me

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: A Change of Season [Re: LI Phil]
      #33948 - Wed Oct 13 2004 05:29 PM

Here's some before/after photos from Ivan, etc from USGS
http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/ivan/photos/

And Jeanne
http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/jeanne/photos/index.html


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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: A Change of Season [Re: LI Phil]
      #33953 - Wed Oct 13 2004 09:38 PM

Nope..the attachment is not visible..I get an error message. I remember that Phil and myself had trouble a week or so ago with attahcments. I think something happened when the site was rebuilt after the crash in September....but I sure am not a computer whiz.....Anyone have ideas why attachments are not linking properly??

--Lou


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: A Change of Season [Re: recmod]
      #33954 - Wed Oct 13 2004 09:50 PM

It's an issue where attachments are being saved to the wrong server, I'll try to fix it tomorrow.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Attachments [Re: MikeC]
      #33955 - Wed Oct 13 2004 09:51 PM

Thanks AGAIN Mike!!!! You da man!

BTW, my new avatar is courtesy of Skeetobite...

All y'all rock!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Wed Oct 13 2004 09:52 PM)


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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Attachments [Re: MikeC]
      #33956 - Wed Oct 13 2004 09:55 PM

Thanks Mike...I know you have worked very hard to keep the site operational during this very trying hurricane season. The minor glitch with attachments is very insignificant compared to the vast resource this site provided during critical hurricane events.
CFHC has been THE first website I check every single morning (even before NHC!!), to get the latest tropical information. "Thank You" doesn't begin to convey the appreciation I have for your efforts

--Lou


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 321
Loc: Orlando, FL
OT: Before Charlie hit Florida... [Re: recmod]
      #33957 - Wed Oct 13 2004 10:47 PM

In the final hours before Hurricane Charley hit Central Florida, Susan Kairys-Courech went out and talked to her trees.

"You need to hold onto one another," she warned them. And then she thanked them for all they had given her -- for their shade, their beauty, the home they'd provided to the birds and the squirrels, for the air they had faithfully sweetened season after season for their 18 years together.

When dawn finally came, Kairys-Courech, a 53-year-old Chuluota environmental activist and writer, peeked out a window -- and her heart sank. Thirty of her precious oaks and pines were down, felled by the storm.

"I couldn't even cry," she says. "It hurt too much to see them lying there, uprooted. They were my friends."

The loss, she knows, is not merely aesthetic.

----------- Story above from Orlando newspaper ----------

Wow.. I bet she's glad she didn't talk to her house.



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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Attachments [Re: recmod]
      #33958 - Wed Oct 13 2004 11:05 PM

Coop, Ed, HF, John, Mike, and Phil. A Big Thank You for a job well done. You guys pulled lots of people. "Through the Storms".

I put up a quickfix link for the attachment.
http://attachments.flhurricane.com/cyclone/files/33941-ivan_13.jpg

Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 13 2004 11:12 PM)


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 400
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
looks like it's getting a bit of organization [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #33960 - Thu Oct 14 2004 01:34 AM

maybe I'm insane, but it looks like the nontropical low
is looking a little more tropical

we'll have to see
ciao!
Mark
(bloody Falcons, losing a game... forsooth!)


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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.64W
Re: A Change of Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #33961 - Thu Oct 14 2004 01:44 AM

Season is changing here too ... cold front blowing in.

NWS has us under a Special Weather Statement, Severe Weather Statement, Severe Thunderstorm Warning, Flood Watch / Flood Statement

They should save paper and just tell us we're fixin to have a gullywasher!

Which is underway as I type...

BTW... all of y'all involved with this site have done a great job keeping up with everything goin on!

Here's to the quiet end to a bad season

'shana


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: A Change of Season [Re: ShanaTX]
      #33963 - Thu Oct 14 2004 10:24 AM

Hey all,

Thanks for the kind words, but it's really Mike & John who deserve the true thanks...keeping this site up during 4 majors (despite what NHC said about Frances being a II at landfall) was no small feat...in fact 'twas a miracle!

Yep, Texas is fixin for more nastiness, and even up here on Little Ol' Long Island, tomorrow we're 'spected to have gale force winds and torrential rains...

2004 is NOT over yet...I hoping & praying for no more named storms, but we cannot let down our guard just yet.

I hate winter, but I never thought I'd be so happy to have autumn arrive.

Pedro is going to look good in pinstripes next year!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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