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Area in W. Carib now up to 40% chance for development, being tracked as Invest 90L. Lots of rain for Florida this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 225 (Nate) , Major: 243 (Maria) Florida - Any: 253 (Irma) Major: 253 (Irma)
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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered




Re: satelite blues [Re: HanKFranK]
      #34910 - Thu Feb 17 2005 08:28 AM

Here's a good one:
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wx/satellite/index.html



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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: satelite blues [Re: Cocoa Beach]
      #34915 - Fri Feb 18 2005 04:24 AM

Hey, that is pretty good. Thanks for sharing!

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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: satelite blues [Re: James88]
      #34919 - Sat Feb 19 2005 05:53 PM

I appologies for the "one word" post, but thank you indeed!

--------------------
cheers


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Hello to all [Re: Lysis]
      #34920 - Sun Feb 20 2005 12:13 AM

So, it has been a couple of months since I've posted. We're now several months removed from the 2004 hurricane season, AKA the ride from hell. I just decided to check in here and see how everyone is doing.

For all of you that were impacted by last season's hurricanes, I hope that your recovery efforts are going well. Especially those of you who suffered major property damage.

Obviously the 2005 season is starting to come to mind...March isn't too far, and that's when we start to see more predictions/forecasts pop up. I certainly believe that there is an excellent chance that this season will be above average as far as the level of activity goes. Still, landfalls are the more important issue. Although I don't expect this season to be anywhere near last year in terms of the number of severe landfalls, I believe Florida (and the rest of the coast) could once again see significant hurricane activity. My reasoning for this is based on something that I have noticed when looking at past hurricane seasons. Basically, these years where we have 6 or 7 US landfalls tend to come in cycles. It seems like they are usually 2 years in length, maybe 3 at the most. At any rate, any person who lives in a hurricane prone area should be prepared. This is a lesson that the 2004 season surely taught all of us living in areas that are affected by hurricanes.

That's all I have to say for now...


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ticka1
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 54
Loc: Southeast Texas 29.78N 94.88W
Re: Hello to all [Re: Kevin]
      #34922 - Sun Feb 20 2005 07:01 PM

Great new format here at FLhurricane! The 2005 season is fast approaching - let's hope Florida isn't in harm's way this year - after last year - you folks deserve a break.

ticka1

--------------------
Join www.wildonweather.com/forum Message Board


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MapMaster
Unregistered




Take a look.... [Re: ticka1]
      #34924 - Tue Feb 22 2005 06:07 PM

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/content/local_news/epaper/2005/02/21/c1c_Bermuda_0221.html

MM


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MapMaster
Unregistered




Re: Take a look.... [Re: MapMaster]
      #34925 - Tue Feb 22 2005 06:12 PM

Ooops, sorry.. I see this is old news here..of course!!
MM


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Map Master
Unregistered




Re: Agree with Clark [Re: Clark]
      #34926 - Tue Feb 22 2005 06:16 PM

Agree with Clark.

One note: La Nada years (no El Nino, no La Nina) historically have produced the most landfalls of major hurricanes in Fl--last yr was la Nada. If indeed we are heading into the season with a weak El Nino or worse, La Nada, that is the worst scenario of all.

I expect an early storm this year, based on the averages.

Anyway you look at it, there are no GOOD indications, only indicators of a bad season coming...number wise and landfall (in Fl) wise.

MM


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
ENSO/SOI [Re: Map Master]
      #34933 - Fri Feb 25 2005 02:15 AM

SOI index is the lead indicator for el nino phase... recently it's giving one heck of a signal. it is mixed over time.. during january positive SOI (the signal that precipitates la nina conditions) was mostly the rule, but pretty much all february a very strongly negative SOI has been the case. a cool SST spike appeared off the west coast of peru and has run all the way out to 130w as of this week.. probably in response to the persistently positive SOI earlier in the winter. the strongly negative SOI will more than likely knock that back down, and possibly set up the onset of another el nino event. i believe clark was mentioning something to this effect earlier.. i'd only been watching SST trends, not the lead signal. this isn't set in stone.. there is more time before the season comes on.. but if the february trend keeps up, we'll be seeing an el nino in '05.
HF 0712z25february


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LONNY307
Unregistered




Re: ENSO/SOI [Re: HanKFranK]
      #34937 - Sun Feb 27 2005 12:28 PM

Your possibly right HankFrank. The subsurface temps have increased in some regions due to a kelvin wave. Will it push to the surface is anyones guess but it is a sign with the SOI:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml

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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: ENSO/SOI [Re: LONNY307]
      #34944 - Mon Feb 28 2005 05:44 AM

Hey guys, my first post of the year! Nice look to the site now too

I thought last year saw marginal El Nino conditions - cant remember when but i beleive it was shortlived. Looking at the SST's and anomalies looks like we could be seeing a set up for a more significant El Nino event for this year.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
El Nino weakening neutral conditions expected [Re: Rich B]
      #34954 - Sat Mar 05 2005 11:08 AM

Here are a couple of links for reference to El Nino



--------------------
"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein


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Heather
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
Re: El Nino weakening neutral conditions expected [Re: Jamiewx]
      #34955 - Sat Mar 05 2005 01:50 PM

OK, I'm still a weather newbie, but from what I'm gathering... El Nino conditions are weakening or will weaken. This would make for a more active Atlantic hurricane season. And I have been also paying more attention to the Bermuda high, which has not moved into a different location, where it has remained will continue to steer hurricanes toward Florida. Am I anywhere near correct in my understanding?

Just want to be on the up and up with this. Too many people were caught off guard last season. Too many people are still nowhere near having there repairs completed as supplies are still in such demand. So, hopefully a little bit of insight into the "potential" of what we may experience will help us prepare the best we can.

--------------------
When it rains, it pours...


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: El Nino weakening neutral conditions expected [Re: Heather]
      #34958 - Sun Mar 06 2005 09:49 AM

Quote:

OK, I'm still a weather newbie, but from what I'm gathering... El Nino conditions are weakening or will weaken. This would make for a more active Atlantic hurricane season. And I have been also paying more attention to the Bermuda high, which has not moved into a different location, where it has remained will continue to steer hurricanes toward Florida. Am I anywhere near correct in my understanding?

Just want to be on the up and up with this. Too many people were caught off guard last season. Too many people are still nowhere near having there repairs completed as supplies are still in such demand. So, hopefully a little bit of insight into the "potential" of what we may experience will help us prepare the best we can.




I'm assuming you read that article in the Palm Beach Post. It uses Jim Lushine and a couple of the NHC forecasters to solidify its position that the Bermuda High's position hasn't changed much from last year.

Although looking at averages of the high's strength and location for several months may be a method of coming to that conclusion, the most important thing to remember is that hurricane landfalls are VERY difficult to predict months in advance. In fact, doing that is damn near impossible. The landfalling location of a hurricane is something that is determined on, at times, a down to the last minute scale. Basically, it's hard to predict such a short term event with long term methods. That's why it is hard to get a grip on who might be at the greatest risk this season.

Maybe a met/met student could shed some more light on this.

EDIT: Also, there is always "potential" to experience a severe hurricane landfall in any given season. With that being said, you should prepare equally for every hurricane season.


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LONNY307
Unregistered




Re: El Nino weakening neutral conditions expected [Re: Kevin]
      #34995 - Fri Mar 18 2005 07:48 AM

The way it started looking was El Nino making a comeback this summer but now I beleive it won't. SOI has gone positve and there has not been another kelvin wave to intensify SST's. Can't believe it's only a few weeks till we here from Dr.Grey on his April predictions for this upcoming season. Talk to you all soon.

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