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Archives 2000s >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: Hehe Colleen :)
      #4384 - Fri Sep 20 2002 11:14 AM

does the fact it is near land and meeting resistance make the system want to drift to the west? if so once in open waters it should go back to more of a nw movement.

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Intensity changing forecast?
      #4385 - Fri Sep 20 2002 11:15 AM

It seems that every model I have looked at has IZZY at pressures well above what he actually is. GFDL seems to be the closest on intesity; but even it, surprisingly enough, is low compared to what Isidore has actually done. Combine that with what appears to be a pretty well defined front coming into the GOM, I think Izzy's track is going to start getting more muddled again after 18-24 hours and not 36-72 hours. Thinking that Isidore does not quite as far west and may not do a southern loop but a turn from WNW-NW-N-NE sometime in the period. Same result but probably a day or two less in the Gulf. I guess it is still possible that the storm tries to dive south into the Yucatan to miss the front. Just not quite sold that a storm of that intensity will take a southern dive. Granted Mitch is a prime example of that. It seems NE may end up being the path of least resistance.

--------------------
Jim


Edited by Rasvar (Fri Sep 20 2002 11:18 AM)


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PaulyAce2002
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 11
Loc: Largo, Florida, United States
Re: Intensity changing forecast?
      #4386 - Fri Sep 20 2002 11:19 AM

That's pretty much what the LBAR model is thinking, a loop towards Florida...

ALL the other models have this going west now. Looking better for the West Coast out of Florida, but as Yogi Berra said, "It ain't over 'til it's over."


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
cat 5.. ack
      #4387 - Fri Sep 20 2002 11:21 AM

let me start by saying, all the cat 5 talk is getting a bit old. i know rick is kidding, but some of you who dont have your kidder credentials sound like youre seriously considering it. what youre doing equates to betting a magnitude 9 earthquake will shake california next month. not likely. back on page 7 of this thread i made a post that talks about how remarkable and uncommon a cat 5 event is. and all of those things jason posted are ensemble models.. blends of different runs of the same model.. it actually makes them bland and none shows a cat 5, more like a tropical storm.. but fairly good agreement that the florida panhandle gets the storm. so really, get off the serious talk about it. way too much hype, unrealistic expectations.
anyhow, isidore is getting pretty close to major hurricane strength.. still no eye showing on satelite. intensification is probably slowed a bit by land interaction... should be there later today. speaking of slowed, the storm looks to have slowed down even more. steering is already weakening.
upper pattern around the storm is in transition. the upper low to the west is sandwiched between the storm and the max from the longwave.. forecast to weaken. it may be adding that slightly more northern component we are seeing today. back to the east the new upper low.. that cutoff from a trough split.. is already becoming apparent. this is the one that is going to slow isidore down and provide much of the movement control. it would have to become very strong to push isidore west very much.
surface weather in the atlantic is a topic of interest too..
anybody notice the new invest? yep, 91L is out in the central atlantic. it's an old surface reflection of the former TUTT, drifting northward. big surface high to the north should stop it in the subtropics and keep its movement erratic.. basically the same that happens to isidore. none of the models intensify it much, though.
northwest of there, above the new cut off low.. convection bursting from the frontal remnants, and that old former hanna low that sort of sloppily lingered in the area. this will be the system that runs west under the ridge, maybe causes further buckling upstream. only NOGAPS intensifies to much of anything, but could be a weak little coast runner from hatteras to new england early next week.
western gulf: surprised by how well it's supporting convection. there is a disturbance in the gulf of tehuantepec being drawn across toward the BOC to join this conglomeration.. if it persists it will have to be watched. btw, throw the current model runs out if something starts developing down there. chaos theory, baby.
african waves: the deep westerlies down there are still hanging around, but weaker. actually a narrow ridge axis at low latitudes trying to pop back up. wave at 45w and the other near 30w have a decent amount of energy.. a few of the globals want to resolve something out here. pretty rough still.. i dont see much development in the next couple of days.
there... wonderfully complex issues in the atlantic. probably another development for next week too. K storm is probably in the works.
aite, nuther big post.
HF 1513z20september


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
Just for giggles...
      #4388 - Fri Sep 20 2002 11:32 AM

Just looked at the Operational MRF run (the extended range component of the AVN that runs out to 384 hrs)...and yes, the MRF does have a NW Fl landfall....on Oct 3rd. Yep...keeps Izzy in the gulf for 320 hrs...over 2 weeks!

Geeze...I SO love weather forecasting!

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Just for giggles...
      #4389 - Fri Sep 20 2002 11:40 AM

I don't even want to think of still talking about Izzy two weeks from now!!!! I think everyone on the board will be reduced to babling idiots from lack of sleep and constant arguing that the next trough will be the one to pick it up!

--------------------
Jim


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Just for giggles...
      #4390 - Fri Sep 20 2002 11:40 AM

lol i bet it wont be there in 320 hrs LOL.

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caneman
Unregistered




Re: Just for giggles...
      #4391 - Fri Sep 20 2002 11:42 AM

Have to kinda agree with HankFrank. I've been guilty of being overly concerned at tis point. Looks like alot of things going on now which would seem to prevent any significant increase in strength, if even any at all. Looking more and more like AVN with it's W to WSW direction may pan out. Lets hope.

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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 175
Loc: Orlando, FL
Shawn
      #4392 - Fri Sep 20 2002 11:47 AM

Lighten up. That is what is known as a joke. For better or worse, you have earned a reputation as predicting every storm will landfall in Texas. You can't expect not to here about it from time to time. In fact, weren't you ranting about how we were all fools for predicting a FL landfall? You can't have it both ways. You will keep hearing people talk about Texas as much as you will continue to talk about FL. It's all good as long as we don't take it personally.
Ok?

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 175
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Just for giggles...
      #4393 - Fri Sep 20 2002 11:52 AM

Sorry, my mistake. I thought everyone on the board had ALREADY been reduced to babbling idiots from lack of sleep...

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Recon
      #4394 - Fri Sep 20 2002 12:00 PM

When is the next flight?

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PaulyAce2002
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 11
Loc: Largo, Florida, United States
Re: Just for giggles...
      #4395 - Fri Sep 20 2002 12:14 PM

Jason, did that model forecast strength?

From my novices chair, I would tend to believe that it would flux with all the tossing around it would do...


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