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Tropical Depression Two in unfavorible conditions, likely to fall apart or dissipate tomorrow.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 19 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3193 (8 y 8 m) (Wilma)
13.4N 51.4W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1012mb
Moving:
Wnw at 18 mph
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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2912
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Emily Moves West Other Disturbances Are Being Watched Also
      #42675 - Tue Jul 12 2005 11:52 PM

Tropical Storm Emily has strengthened a bit tonight, now with winds around 60 MPH. Recon is scheduled to fly into the storm sometime tomorrow so we may have a better idea then on what it will do.



It appears emily will stay on a very westerly course, south of the larger Caribbean islands, and eventually head toward the Yucatan. At that point, east of the Yucatan, the cone of error could take it into the gulf or continue it on into Mexico. More time to watch it. The Caymans, and Jamaica, as well as the Leewards (Who are under hurricane watches) need to watch out for this system.

Beyond Emily, is another area of disturbed weather that will likely be TD#6 sometime tomorrow.

More to come later.


More to come later... in the meantime, look at the blogs below for more Emily information.

Event Related Links
StormCarib - Individual reports from the Caribbean Islands
Color Sat of Dennis
Floater Satellite (Visible) of Dennis with Storm Track Overlays
(Animated)
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Dennis

Emily
Animated Model Plot of Emily
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Emily
Emily Spaghetti Model from boatus
Weather Underground Model Plots for Emily
QuikScat Image of Emily

Area east of Emily (99L)
Animated Model Plot of Area East of Emily 99L
Model Plot of Area East of Emily 99L Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Emily


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
analog for emily? [Re: MikeC]
      #42678 - Wed Jul 13 2005 12:03 AM

any of y'all remember bret in 1993? based on how emily is acting, that may end up being our analog system. the wnw turn could still happen, but i'm getting less convinced that it will.
back in the east altantic 99L still has it's convective mass near the center. SSTs where it is are really marginal, but maybe it's just forcing thunderstorm activity by sheer inertia as it hurtles westward. i think get classification in another 24-48 hrs.. near 40-45w things should start to coalesce for it.
ftlaudbob, from the last thread... i was offering some very active seasons and made it implicit that those records are incomplete.. no satelites or recon, or even thoroughly searched ship logs and local reports of tropical cyclones. notice how you don't see many tropical storms in the east atlantic? lots of storms that stayed at sea escaped record. i'm sure a july like this has happened before. i know of a pre-1851 june that had four systems.. two of them made landfall in south carolina, as a matter of fact. may be part of the work i do here at usc... if funding and such comes through.
HF 0502z13july


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Even If.. [Re: HanKFranK]
      #42681 - Wed Jul 13 2005 12:07 AM

even if emily continues on into Mexico..it could bring some eexxttreemmelllyy heavy rain to South Texas JAIMACA IS GETTING BATTERED RIGHT ALONG WITH FLORIDA

----------------------------------
LOVIN THE ISLAND ABOUT NOW

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: analog for emily? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #42682 - Wed Jul 13 2005 12:14 AM

To answer Mike N's question at the end of the old thread: models usually do a pretty good job in forecasting troughs out to 4 and 5 days, at least in general, but the specifics -- how strong, how fast, how far -- they sometimes have trouble with. Some models do better than others with different systems & regimes, while others do better solely in the tropics. The forecasting aspects must be incorporated into any track forecast, starting from the outset: if the model doesn't get the initial conditions of the overall regime right, it's likely not going to get the rest of it right. We saw this last year with the subtropical ridge.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: analog for emily? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #42684 - Wed Jul 13 2005 12:17 AM

Hank,Can we agree on" īn our life time".

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Random..Sorrry [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #42685 - Wed Jul 13 2005 12:25 AM

HurricaneCity

this site states...

How often Long Island gets affected?
brushed or hit every 5.36 years

ehh i dont know about that..sorry if this is random which it is i thought it wouldget everyone off of Emily while she treks across the Lesser Antilles

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: analog for emily? [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #42686 - Wed Jul 13 2005 12:26 AM

bob.. maybe. we may end up approaching or surpassing 1995 numbers (the big year of recent times). of course, in 1997 on july 16th we were outpacing 1995, with our 4th named storm and 5th depression. we didn't get our 5th named storm until early september, and finished the year with 7 named and 1 unnamed subtropical. in 1966 we were also ahead of the 1995 pace (ella formed on july 22) and finished with 11 named. 1969 had 18 tropical/subtropical cyclones.
yeah, i personally think we're in a hyper-active year. i'm a climate guy, though. to me there's a precedent for everything you see, if you look for it. limiting the domain of what can and does happen to the short period of well-recorded history is asking for surprises.
HF 0526z13july


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: analog for emily? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #42688 - Wed Jul 13 2005 12:31 AM

My concern is that these are Cape Verde storms.We did not see that to this degree in the years that you mention.And there has been alot of rainfall in Africa.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: analog for emily? [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #42689 - Wed Jul 13 2005 12:38 AM

i have a Emily question..if she hits The Yucatan can she still make a turn toward the west florida coast??

Please give some insight,. thanks

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: analog for emily? [Re: Ryan]
      #42690 - Wed Jul 13 2005 12:56 AM

the thing about the cv storms.. yeah, that's right. that'll be two to develop east of the islands prior to august if franklin develops, and that's rare. Dennis developed as it reached the windwards. so yeah, that's some odd stuff.
as for emily hitting the yucatan then coming back to w florida... no. there's nothing to recurve the storm. maybe in texas or louisiana i'd keep an eyeball on emily... especially if i were in jamaica or cuba, the windwards, the north coast of south america, and nicaragua up to the yucatan. again, this one doesn't look like a florida threat.
HF 0556z13july


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: analog for emily? [Re: Ryan]
      #42691 - Wed Jul 13 2005 12:58 AM

Never say never, but it'd be pretty tough to make it back to the west Florida coast from the Yucutan. Opal in 1995 is the closest I can think of, and it formed near the Yucutan and ended up making landfall near where Dennis did the other day.

A storm forming in that vicinity and then moving to the NE is more likely to affect the west Florida coast than something moving west out of the Caribbean out of respect for inertial forces carrying the latter such storm continually to the west. It'd take an unusually strong trough reaching into the Gulf to result in such a path, no matter the storm, and you usually don't see those this time of year. For Emily? Not likely. For it to be a Florida threat, the initial predictions would have to bear out, something that looks rather unlikely at this point.

As for the debate on the "historic" start to the season -- I think that it's likely that something like this has happened before, like HF says. The satellite era is only about 40-50 years old, recon flights have a similar lifetime, and records from before the mid-1850s are pretty spotty. It may not have occured in our lifetime, but that does not mean that it hasn't happened before.

Ultimately though, all that matters for this season is that we have had a lot of storms thus far, all impacting land, and there doesn't appear to be anything to stem the tide of storms in the short-term. I figured we'd see a pretty active early July with an MJO cycle, but I'm not sure how much longer this will keep up. My best guess is that we'll have a fairly dull late July before kicking into gear once again around the end of the first week of August for the heart of the season. The way SSTs and shear are across the basin (and have been all season), however, it's going to take a trough taking hold across the region or an influx of dry Saharan air to really slow things down. When you have the two biggest contributors to development both favorable this early in the season, plus the requisite tropical waves to kick things off, you are going to see at least some development.

We've been helped by a monsoon trough-like feature across the basin for much of the season, whether in the SW Caribbean earlier in the season or now off of the coast of Africa. It's typically a feature you see with the East & (especially) West Pacific basins, but with it's presence and the added boost from the warm SSTs off of the coast of Africa and an endless supply of tropical waves, most everything that has been coming off of the continent lately has had a shot at developing.

I may post something to that effect to the blogs sometime Wednesday along with a look at Emily once again, but that's what I'm looking at right now.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: analog for emily? [Re: Clark]
      #42692 - Wed Jul 13 2005 01:12 AM

Quick search of the NOAA Coastal Services Center.
Historical Hurricane Tracks. (1954-2004 only)
I found three storms within 125nm of Emily's beginning track point.
Arlene 7-31-1963 at 25 kts
Arthur 7-22-1990 at 25 kts
Bertha 7-05-1996 at 35 kts.

This was a quick, lat/ long, search using Emily's original track point from Advisory # 1.

There are many ways to utilize this search engine. I was mainly interested in the July storms (All Storm categories).

http://hurricane.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

Searching HURDAT. I came across this storm.
Storm EMILY is number 6 of the year 1987
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
September 20 0 UTC 9.8N 51.3W -- deg -- mph -- kph 30 mph 45 kph 1008 mb Tropical Depression
September 20 6 UTC 10.4N 53.0W 290 deg 19 mph 31 kph 30 mph 45 kph 1007 mb Tropical Depression
September 20 12 UTC 10.9N 54.7W 285 deg 19 mph 31 kph 35 mph 55 kph 1006 mb Tropical Depression

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/easyhurdat_5102.html

Edited by danielw (Wed Jul 13 2005 01:42 AM)


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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Mandeville, LA
Re: analog for emily? [Re: Ryan]
      #42693 - Wed Jul 13 2005 03:11 AM

Looking at the IR-loop, it seems with this last convective burst that Emily might be trying to reorganize a little to the north? If she does this, she could miss land, but otherwise, landfall is imminent

[Edit: I suppose I should correct my misspelling, since it stirred quite an uproar!].

Edited by Terra (Wed Jul 13 2005 06:24 PM)


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: analog for emily? [Re: Terra]
      #42694 - Wed Jul 13 2005 03:44 AM

if she misses land, she will intensify greatly, but i think a BArbados-St.Lucia-Grenada landfall is imminent as a moderate cat.1 hurricane..then it will strrenghten as it heads passed Jamaica and into the Yucatan to landfall as a cat.3 hurricane..after that its into Mexico/South Texas if it doesnt die over the Yucatan

what are other's opinions on this :confused :?:

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
5 AM Update [Re: Ryan]
      #42696 - Wed Jul 13 2005 05:46 AM

Emily continues holding together. Nearly symmetrical earlier last night Emily now appears more like a tadpole doing a U-turn.
It appears the the two disturbances behind Emily are interfering with the Outflow Channel on the Northern side of Emily.
IR satellite loop, through 0845Z indicates the systems east of Emily, may be pushing her toward the South American Coastline. 4 hours of satellite loop, shows that the distance between Emily and the coastline has dropped by nearly half. Taken into account the slight increase in the diameter of Emily's main circulation.

The NWS Key West Area Forecast Discussion, from 0728Z/ 3:28 AM EDT, mentions that "The Official National Hurricane Center Forecast Track Of Tropical Storm Emily Has Shifted South For Four Consecutive Advisories".
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/EYW/AFDEYW.0507130728

Official NHC products on Tropical Storm Emily can be found on the Main Page. Or by clicking on the map located in the left sidebar.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Return to Flight", launch of STS-114 and Space Shuttle Discovery is scheduled for 3:51 PM EDT this afternoon. Return to Flight Launch Coverage can be found here. http://www.nasa.gov/returntoflight/launch/index.html
http://www.nasa.gov/returntoflight/main/index.html
Tanking is scheduled to begin shortly.(delayed at 5:54 EDT)
Clock is at the T minus 6 hour mark and holding.
There are 10 hours and 4 minutes to scheduled launch.
At the time of this posting. 05:46 EDT


Windows Media Player shortcut for Launch Pad 39-A audio and video.
http://www.nasa.gov/55644main_NASATV_Windows.asx
Multimedia Link for STS-114.
http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/114_schedule.html

Edited by danielw (Wed Jul 13 2005 05:57 AM)


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BullitNutz
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 46
Re: 5 AM Update [Re: danielw]
      #42697 - Wed Jul 13 2005 06:52 AM

Man. At first I was expecting (with the initial TS Emily forecast) her to keep with the initial track, intensify slowly, cut through Haiti and/or Cuba, and curve North, taking a track similar to Charley's projections (just E of N, cutting right up along the Western coastline of the FL panhandle) prior to the sudden turn East. Now it looks more like a fish spinner, possibly an impact in the Yucatan.

Is she simply running on a "lean" mixture in the air, or is there a ridge/air mass impeding Northward motion? Or is this just "the way she's going?"

dude, gotta question that nomenclature. calling a caribbean storm a fish spinner is an oxymoron. a fish spinner refers to storms in the open atlantic that recurve and miss land areas. nobody gets hit by a fish spinner.. and yes, there are people in the yucatan. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Jul 13 2005 10:57 AM)


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: 5 AM Update [Re: BullitNutz]
      #42699 - Wed Jul 13 2005 07:32 AM

If she does not crash in the area she is in now. She will probably do the Texas/Mexico thing. She looks ragged on the satellitte but then I am not sure about the date and time of the satellites I am looking at.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: 5 AM Update [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #42700 - Wed Jul 13 2005 07:46 AM

Emily doesn't look as health to me this morning. We'll have to see what happens with this storm as the day goes by.

Count me in with the crowd that thinks a seasn like this pobably has happened before. Not in recent history but there is a whole bunch of history prior to the late 1800's and 1900's to think about when records were not even kept very much.
Statistics are fun but only to a point. At least for me.
If a storm impacts my area, I really don't care if it's an early or late storm or the 14th named storm in July. It's still raining and blowing.
]


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BullitNutz
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 46
Re: 5 AM Update [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #42701 - Wed Jul 13 2005 08:08 AM

Yeah, I see where you're coming from. I'd imagine the high rate of speed (normally prevalent in weaker storms that are on the verge of falling apart) is telling of impending dissolution.

When they said slow development, they weren't kidding. Emily's just plugging along, moving fast, but not intensifying. I'd give her 50/50 of making it over the islands in front of her.


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: 5 AM Update [Re: BullitNutz]
      #42702 - Wed Jul 13 2005 08:21 AM

I am looking at a blob about to exit the Yucatan/Mexican coast. Ordinarily in July we would be oohhing and blobwatching. But, I have to wonder if this blob, will somehow play into the Emily scenario, or if it is truly just a blob.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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