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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited [Re: Clark]
      #43383 - Sat Jul 16 2005 09:37 AM

Good morning everyone. Just up and see that Emily is a strong Cat 4 - no surprise, as I still think she'll reach Cat 5 today.

I'm VERY glad she is going to go fairly south of Jamaica. She looks like a mean little buzzsaw. Even the visual radar looks very impressive. But it looks bad for the Yucatan coastline.

A question - in the NHC Discussions, what does CDO stand for?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited [Re: Clark]
      #43384 - Sat Jul 16 2005 09:40 AM

For those without the link, these will take you to the latest visible and infrared images of Emily.



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Biowatch
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 19
Loc: Massachusetts
Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited [Re: Clark]
      #43386 - Sat Jul 16 2005 09:50 AM

Feeling very uneasy again this morning regarding the Yucatan. With my daughter on the east coast of that peninsula, wondering what the potential storm surge might be for that area. Reports have little information regarding the potential effects of Emily there. Most reports detail Jamaica and Texas possiblilities, but little discussion of effects on Yucatan. I learned yesterday on this site that it is very low lying, but is the small eye an indication of a small tidal surge?

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SeeSaw03
Unregistered




Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited [Re: Clark]
      #43387 - Sat Jul 16 2005 09:50 AM

Hey Clark--

Given that Emily has ramped up considerably and may intensify a bit more, is there any way that she might steer on a slightly more northerly heading. Nothing significant, just perhaps a subtle change from ~285 to perhaps, say, ~290 or 295. Isn't it possible for very strong storms to eat into ridges a bit? Just was thinking perhaps she might miss the Yucatan that way, and perhaps spin down a bit in the Gulf of Mexico. As it looks now, the Yucatan Peninsula is going to take some serious heat from this thing.

Thanks. Appreciative of your insight, as always.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited [Re: Biowatch]
      #43390 - Sat Jul 16 2005 10:01 AM

Quote:

Feeling very uneasy again this morning regarding the Yucatan. With my daughter on the east coast of that peninsula, wondering what the potential storm surge might be for that area. Reports have little information regarding the potential effects of Emily there. Most reports detail Jamaica and Texas possiblilities, but little discussion of effects on Yucatan. I learned yesterday on this site that it is very low lying, but is the small eye an indication of a small tidal surge?




I would be uneasy as well. The main thing is the intensity. The stronger the storm the stronger the surge. Ideally she would want to be located south of where the eye hits land.

Are you in touch with your daughter? How close to the shore is she? Yucatan should already be preparing for a hit and so she should already have info about where to go.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited [Re: Margie]
      #43391 - Sat Jul 16 2005 10:04 AM

Live radio feed from jamaica

http://www.go-jamaica.com/power/


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 859
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited [Re: Clark]
      #43393 - Sat Jul 16 2005 10:07 AM

If Emily reaches Cat 5 intensity, would that make her the earliest Cat 5 storm in history? (have there been others in July?)

--------------------
Michael
2018 Actual: 14/7/2


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Biowatch
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 19
Loc: Massachusetts
Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited [Re: Margie]
      #43394 - Sat Jul 16 2005 10:11 AM

Good morning Margie.....thanks for the reply. No, I am not able to contact my daughter......she is working for an organization called Global Works which has a program in the Peninsula. Her printed itinerary shows they were scheduled to head to a small island directly off the east coast on Sunday night. She is not too far from it now. Hoping someone has some sense to move the group of teenagers(18 of them) out of the area. I know they are not far from the east coast now. I think it is still a hike to the closest airport. Last heard from her 4 days ago.

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 859
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited [Re: Biowatch]
      #43395 - Sat Jul 16 2005 10:20 AM

Quote:

Good morning Margie.....thanks for the reply. No, I am not able to contact my daughter......she is working for an organization called Global Works which has a program in the Peninsula. Her printed itinerary shows they were scheduled to head to a small island directly off the east coast on Sunday night. She is not too far from it now. Hoping someone has some sense to move the group of teenagers(18 of them) out of the area. I know they are not far from the east coast now. I think it is still a hike to the closest airport. Last heard from her 4 days ago.


I would certainly expect the group knows about the storm and is taking the necessary precautions. I know that's not much solace to you. Have you called Global Works?

--------------------
Michael
2018 Actual: 14/7/2


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited [Re: Biowatch]
      #43396 - Sat Jul 16 2005 10:26 AM

Quote:

Good morning Margie.....thanks for the reply. No, I am not able to contact my daughter......she is working for an organization called Global Works which has a program in the Peninsula. Her printed itinerary shows they were scheduled to head to a small island directly off the east coast on Sunday night. She is not too far from it now. Hoping someone has some sense to move the group of teenagers(18 of them) out of the area. I know they are not far from the east coast now. I think it is still a hike to the closest airport. Last heard from her 4 days ago.




No, they won't be going to any small island off the east coast Sunday night. Emily will be hitting the Yucatan Sunday night, and everyone in the Yucatan knows that. Seeing the strong CAT 4 this morning will light a fire under officials. She'll be safely inland.

I would contact Global Works headquarters and hassle them until they agree to find out where she is. Remember afterwards communications may be out for a week or so in those coastal areas.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited [Re: Margie]
      #43397 - Sat Jul 16 2005 10:26 AM

New thread.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Biowatch
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 19
Loc: Massachusetts
Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited [Re: MichaelA]
      #43399 - Sat Jul 16 2005 10:36 AM

thanks, Michael, for the reply. I think I got lost in this thread as it ended....I do have numbers to contact the organization, and will. I just did not want to look like an alarmist as hurricanes can be so fickle. I does not look like there really is a safe place to go reviewing all of the computer models on the underground site. All put them over the Yucatan....some even more south than I thought. I know she will eventually call and ask advice as she knows I have tracked hurricanes for years. Different when its your own family out there......you lose a little objectivity.

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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited [Re: MichaelA]
      #43400 - Sat Jul 16 2005 10:37 AM

moved it to the new thread

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


Edited by HCW (Sat Jul 16 2005 10:41 AM)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 815
Loc: hollywood,florida
Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited [Re: MichaelA]
      #43401 - Sat Jul 16 2005 10:38 AM

Having lived in Playa Del Camen on the Yucatan for 3 years,I have this morning offerd my friends that are there a place to stay here with me.Also I am working with them for flight arrangments to get then out of there.Anyone who has been there knows,there is no place there that is safe,and I mean no where.Many times I used to sit on the beach there and say to myself f a major hurricane ever hit here it would wipe this town out".Well it looks like that is what will happen.For those that have never been there,it is one of the coolest places on this earth.Please pray for all those who can not get out in time.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Biowatch
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 19
Loc: Massachusetts
Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited [Re: Margie]
      #43408 - Sat Jul 16 2005 11:11 AM

Thanks again, Margie.....I hope you are right in them being aware of the situation in the Yucatan. I had not thought of the communications being out for a week afterwards..a very good point...I guess I will be signing off to contact the organization with fingers crossed......

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jusforsean
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 23
Loc: Broward County
Re: franklin info [Re: HanKFranK]
      #43418 - Sat Jul 16 2005 12:48 PM

Hi,
anyone have up to date info on the next TD 6? I am trying to find the best way to keep up to date on the disturbances that the news and NWS doesnt update on yet.
Thanks
jusforsean


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 859
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: franklin info [Re: jusforsean]
      #43435 - Sat Jul 16 2005 02:16 PM

Quote:

Hi,
anyone have up to date info on the next TD 6? I am trying to find the best way to keep up to date on the disturbances that the news and NWS doesnt update on yet.
Thanks
jusforsean


I usually read the Tropical Weather Discussion at the NHC site.

--------------------
Michael
2018 Actual: 14/7/2


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jrhurricane
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 6
Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #43460 - Sat Jul 16 2005 04:46 PM

Yah...I did jsut see the map of Emily. You can tell it did shift a bit direction...Does anyone seem to know what directions will be getting a direct hit. I was thinking that Central Coastal Texas wouldn't see anything, but now I see that they might and all the way up to Louisiana, which I already did know that they would maybe see TS force winds possibly? Or possibly TD force winds? I do think that anyone in the US from Southern Texas to Eastern or Western Lower Louisiana do need to keep an eye on this storm as the track is probably still uncertain? Question for the Meteroligist's-What do you think the track will be...which I already do know some of them already are certain about the track and some are not, but I really am uncertain that is why I am asking about Emily's Track.

--------------------
Jordan Ross Schroeder


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