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Tracking #94L in the SW Carib likely to produce very heavy rains over C America this coming week and a Wave nearing NE coast of S America
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Michael) , Major: 4 (Michael) Florida - Any: 4 (Michael) Major: 4 (Michael)
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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: 119Kt [Re: wiley]
      #50877 - Sat Aug 27 2005 05:05 PM

Both the IR sat and visible are showing very little (if any) movement in the last hour...I think that we should have a good idea of its NW direction by tonight, but never forget about the right hook these things do at the coast...Opal, Erin, Dennis, and Ivan all went between 30-50 miles east of track in the last couple of hours..and if it gets as big and strong as forcasted, it may be able to go anywhere it wants...I like them better when they are moving at a fast clip like Dennis did...

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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hunterdm
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 6
Loc: Crystal River,FL
Re: 119Kt [Re: Hugh]
      #50878 - Sat Aug 27 2005 05:06 PM

Hi all, i 've been a lurker for awhile, and I must take a moment to say that you guys are all great, I have learned soo much! The thought of this being "THE ONE" for LA is extremely frightening. the affects of That kind of hit would not only wipe out NO, but would affect us all, wherever we are located. I will being Praying for anyone in the path of this bad girl. I am on the west coast of fl in alittle town called Crystal River that is sub sea level and cat 2 would swamp us for sure.

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jr928
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
Re: 119Kt [Re: bn765]
      #50879 - Sat Aug 27 2005 05:07 PM

joe's said the last 3 canes would bury new orleans, so 1 in 4 does not make his predictions that trustworthy. Now, when the NHC says a possible 5, then I start driving west.

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: 119Kt [Re: jr928]
      #50881 - Sat Aug 27 2005 05:10 PM

Quote:

joe's said the last 3 canes would bury new orleans, so 1 in 4 does not make his predictions that trustworthy. Now, when the NHC says a possible 5, then I start driving west.




You had to say that, didn't you?

From NHC 5pm Discussion:
Quote:

KATRINA SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS IT COMES OUT OF THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
CYCLE. THE GFDL IS NOW CALLING FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 131 KT...
WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL IS CALLING FOR 130 KT AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE 128 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR
STRENGTHENING TO 125 KT AT LANDFALL...AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE
THAT Katrina COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL.
THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL CYCLE BEFORE LANDFALL...WHICH COULD THROW OFF THE INTENSITY
FORECAST A BIT.




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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 240
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
Re: 119Kt [Re: bn765]
      #50882 - Sat Aug 27 2005 05:13 PM

Quote:

Wow Bastardi was just on Fox News and he is very confident this will be at least a high Cat 4 and maybe a 5.




so is the NHC.


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jr928
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
Re: 119Kt [Re: Random Chaos]
      #50883 - Sat Aug 27 2005 05:14 PM

like I said, DRIVING WEST

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: 119Kt [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #50885 - Sat Aug 27 2005 05:17 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Wow Bastardi was just on Fox News and he is very confident this will be at least a high Cat 4 and maybe a 5.




so is the NHC.




SHIPS according to WU is forecasting 149 in 48 hrs, 141 in 72.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: 119Kt [Re: Hugh]
      #50886 - Sat Aug 27 2005 05:18 PM

New thread up folks.

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=tb2005&Number=50884#Post50884

Head on over there.


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: 119Kt [Re: Hugh]
      #50887 - Sat Aug 27 2005 05:21 PM

I think the lack of movement can be confirmed in that the eye is still visible on Key West radar, Though the presentation is poor and telling a direction of movement not accurate, you can still see both sides of the circulation..if the west movement had continued in the last hour, thr west eyewall would be out of range, but it continues to be visible and stationary, I feel confirming the IR and Vis sats. I know that systems do these temp stalls, but movement has been consistent up until now...Any thoughts?

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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collegemom
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 82
Loc: Central Arkansas
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #50953 - Sat Aug 27 2005 07:54 PM

OK so here I sit watching. I'm the dummy that dropped her 18 yo at college and left for Arkansas about this time last year....He flew back just the other day.....
What's the major consensus on what this one's gonna do?

--------------------
character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking


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