Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially over. 2018's runs June 1st-Nov 30th, 2018.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 199 (Nate) , Major: 217 (Maria) Florida - Any: 227 (Irma) Major: 227 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | (show all)
gailwarning
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 32
Loc: Satellite Beach FL 28.18N 80.59W
Re: 4 frames now [Re: KATFIVE]
      #55873 - Wed Sep 21 2005 04:51 PM

A couple questions...

1. I read on this site awhile back that the larger the storms get, the more they tend to spin themselves north. Is that in play here?

2. Is there any theoretical or actual limit to how strong hurricanes can get?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
bobbutts
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 71
Loc: New Hampshire
Re: North motion [Re: KATFIVE]
      #55874 - Wed Sep 21 2005 04:52 PM Attachment (297 downloads)

I photoshop'd a few satellite images over each other and connected the dots (attached). This is likely to be at least somewhat inaccurate, but I came up with a 300 degree heading.
The images are from 12:15 to 19:45 UTC

Worth noting that if it is heading 300deg it would still be in the very northern edge of the NHC cone.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
gogogabby007
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 5
Loc: Gulf Breeze, FL 30.40N 86.95W
Re: 5TH FRAME IN A ROW... [Re: Psyber]
      #55875 - Wed Sep 21 2005 04:53 PM

According to that link, Rita looks big enough to cover a good portion of SE and NE TX and LA. Is this realistic (meaning the relative size to US and Rita is accurate) or is it just my perception? Thanks.

Edited by gogogabby007 (Wed Sep 21 2005 04:54 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: 4 frames now [Re: gailwarning]
      #55876 - Wed Sep 21 2005 04:53 PM

for the NW people 5pm bam Hurricane center located near 24.4n 86.8w at 21/2100z
position accurate within 15 nm

present movement toward the west or 275 degrees at 11 kt

...Rita reaches 165 mph winds...becomes an extremely dangerous
category five hurricane...the second of the 2005 season...

at 4 PM CDT...2100z...a Hurricane Watch has been issued for Gulf of
Mexico coast from Port Mansfield Texas to Cameron Louisiana.

At 4 PM CDT...2100z...a tropical storm watch has been issued for
east of Cameron to Grand Isle Louisiana and from south of Port
Mansfield to Brownsville.

At 4 PM CDT...2100z...the government of Mexico has issued a tropical
storm watch for the northeast coast of Mexico from Rio San Fernando
northward.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A tropical storm
watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area...generally within 36 hours.



Edited by ralphfl (Wed Sep 21 2005 04:55 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: 4 frames now [Re: Margie]
      #55877 - Wed Sep 21 2005 04:54 PM

Quote:

Quote:

What is your source on Katrina being 6 times the size of Rita. The latter looks pretty darn big. I can believe K was larger, but 6 times larger?




There are several ways. You can review the satellite images and calculate the distance from the lat/lon. You can also review NHC archives which do give the distances for the hurricane-force windfield and tropical-storm force windfield from the center, in various directions, and calculate the area from that.

Katrina was an unusually large storm.




According to the NHC archives, Katrina had TS force winds up to 230 miles from the center, Rita has them 140 miles from the center. According to my math, that makes Katrina not even 2x the size. No question she was larger, but nowhere near 6 times.

BTW, new thread.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: 4 frames now [Re: tenavilla]
      #55878 - Wed Sep 21 2005 04:56 PM

5:00 is out...you have to scroll down to see it:

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html#AL18

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: 4 frames now [Re: ralphfl]
      #55880 - Wed Sep 21 2005 04:59 PM

I'm only saying this because I learned it with Katrina and not everyone may remember it.... the motion that the NHC gives is a 6-hour average. So, in the past 6 hours, the storm moved 0.1N, 0.9W, which is essentially due west. This type of binning of data averages out small wobbles and focuses more on true, long-term motion.

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: 4 frames now [Re: Ed in Va]
      #55881 - Wed Sep 21 2005 05:00 PM

or look at few posts above.Wierd no mention AL ALL about a NW N shift.From 24.3 to 24.4 the whole day seems kinda west to me.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
bn765
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 60
Re: 4 frames now [Re: ralphfl]
      #55884 - Wed Sep 21 2005 05:07 PM

Ive seen that people are gettin reports of the pressure down to 906mb?? This means it would be lower than Katrina was when she was 175. any thoughts?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: 4 frames now [Re: Terra]
      #55885 - Wed Sep 21 2005 05:08 PM

While it's true that 6 hour averages give overall, long-term motion, the bad thing is that if a turn begins shortly before the new advisory comes out, the average motion can be deceiving. For instance, the motion for the first 5 hours may be due west, but if in the last hour a turn begins, it won't necessarily be reflected accurately in the average. Charley taught us that lesson down here. I seem to remember that when he made landfall, the motion for the last official advisory was obviously wrong.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lilcaeser
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 2
Re: 4 frames now [Re: tenavilla]
      #55891 - Wed Sep 21 2005 05:17 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

What is your source on Katrina being 6 times the size of Rita. The latter looks pretty darn big. I can believe K was larger, but 6 times larger?




There are several ways. You can review the satellite images and calculate the distance from the lat/lon. You can also review NHC archives which do give the distances for the hurricane-force windfield and tropical-storm force windfield from the center, in various directions, and calculate the area from that.

Katrina was an unusually large storm.




According to the NHC archives, Katrina had TS force winds up to 230 miles from the center, Rita has them 140 miles from the center. According to my math, that makes Katrina not even 2x the size. No question she was larger, but nowhere near 6 times.

BTW, new thread.




NHC is saying now TS winds extend 175 miles. Just to clarify.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lilcaeser
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 2
Re: 4 frames now [Re: tenavilla]
      #55896 - Wed Sep 21 2005 05:22 PM

I'm counting 5 frames now. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
back west [Re: Lilcaeser]
      #55902 - Wed Sep 21 2005 05:27 PM

but still a tad north of the official track. the thing about that is that any deviation this far from land makes landfall change hundreds of miles.

looks like a Houston/Galveston thing.....maybe east of that. remember the envelope the NHC uses. It should not suprise us that the hurricane is deviating from the projected path a little. but if it keeps trending like this...it could go into Louisiana...I am not wishcasting...just observing.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Takingforever
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 43
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
Re: 4 frames now [Re: gailwarning]
      #55919 - Wed Sep 21 2005 05:50 PM

Quote:


2. Is there any theoretical or actual limit to how strong hurricanes can get?





I read in Wired Magazine that the limit is 214 MPH I believe. That's the limit the atmosphere can take before it rips itself apart. lol


So, this is the Season from Hell II: Ultimate Destruction. Makes last year look like it was jsut the rehearsal....


Ok, they are breaking heat records in Texas..what effect, if any will that have on Rita?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
pryord1
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
Re: 4 frames now [Re: Lilcaeser]
      #55955 - Wed Sep 21 2005 07:00 PM

Still seems like it's moving more NW now- even after 2 hours' worth of frames. Isn't it a little early for this turn?

--------------------
The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 89 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 59986

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center