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Archives 2000s >> 2006 Forecast Lounge

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04GTP
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 2
Loc: Saint Petersburg Beach, FL
GFS Projections for Tampa Bay Area
      #57739 - Tue Oct 04 2005 06:09 PM

Has anyone taken a look at the 12Z 10/4/05 GFS model run?

For the past two days, GFS has been predicting what looks to be a Cat-1 or Cat-2 storm winding itself up from the NE Yucatan Peninsula and working it's way to (roughly) the mouth of Tampa Bay in 66 hours or so.

It doesn't have anything to do with 92L as far as I can tell, but it looks ominous, if the model verifies over the next couple of days.

Anyone have any thoughts as to why GFS shows this genesis? Check out the 850MB vorticity loop at:
GFS MODEL LOOP

--------------------
Novice storm tracker / "Hurricane Junky". Have lived through: Jeanne, Charley, Elena, Ivan, too many T.S.'s to mention!


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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 96
Loc: Cape Coral, FL 26.63N 81.94W
Re: GFS Projections for Tampa Bay Area [Re: 04GTP]
      #57746 - Tue Oct 04 2005 07:37 PM

Living a bit south of you in Cape Coral, I've also been watching the GFS models. Crazy how the GFS has been spinning up lows in the area between the Yucatan and Cuba, and sending them at the west coast of Florida. The 18Z GFS is up on the Penn State site and it looks a little better relative to intensity but it's still spinning up a few lows with the Florida west coast as the target.

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/


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Ben Wallace
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 6
Loc: Zephyrhills, FL
Re: GFS Projections for Tampa Bay Area [Re: CoalCracker]
      #57754 - Tue Oct 04 2005 09:55 PM

I have been also looking at this model. It has seemed be spinning lows up all over the place as I also noticed it spinning up a low right off Africa and turning it north through the Cape Verde Islands. Strange though how it spins up a low off the Yucatan and brings it straight twords the tampa area, I don't even see the feature that could possibly develop into this "storm" the GFS is spinning up. It also looks like it does not develop the distubance in the Bahamas very much. I think this model has gone a litte wacky with developing lows.

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