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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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emackl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: Moving NNW? [Re: jaxmike]
      #60188 - Thu Oct 20 2005 02:41 PM

I assume it would be farther north. It would be a shortcut wouldn't it? Then it would take longer to get pushed NE! That's my noneducated guess!

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NorEaster
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 6
Re: Nearing the End of the ERC? [Re: emackl]
      #60189 - Thu Oct 20 2005 02:42 PM

I'm calling the ball, it looks like the end of the ERC.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

Shortwave data also supports this...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR2/20.jpg

Looks like Wilma has another short compact eye. This isn't a suprise since NHC has been discussing re-strengthening all day today. Now I forsee a short period of re-strengthening shortly followed by the circulation center becoming too close to land and that "hoover vacuum" mechanism these monster storms have will suck in the dry air from the Yukitan, and will be the beginning of the end for Wilma.

As far as the track goes, is it slowing down b/c its turning, and will it turn fast enough for Cancun? Reminds me of a freight train trying to slam on the breaks and turn at the same time. Nothing that big can turn on a dime, and the laws of physics (inertia) tells us that it may be too late for those in Cancun.


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Big Tk
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 25
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Moving NNW? [Re: jaxmike]
      #60190 - Thu Oct 20 2005 02:47 PM

It is way to early to tell if this is a trend or just a wobble. I don't think will no anything till tomorrow afternoon or friday night.

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: Wilma [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #60191 - Thu Oct 20 2005 02:48 PM

Quote:

I'd like to echo what somebody said earlier regarding the threat to Mexico. While a Yucutan landfall and subsequent stall could decimate Wilma and spare Florida a lot of problems, that scenario would likely cause a signficantly larger loss of life that what would occur with even a very strong hurricane impacting Florida somewhere. I know many of you live in Florida and are rightly concerned about your friends and family and I'm not being critical of anyone focusing too much on Florida, but parts of Mexico are facing a potentially major disaster here.




For what it's worth.... I would not be surprised if we see a concerted N component to Wilma's motion by nightfall - if that acceleration has not already begun..

The intermediate advisory by HPC has a northwest movement, which is about 10 or degree change from the 11am advisory: "WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH ...7 KM/HR." Moreover, when observing the various sat we see a tendency for the cirrus veil to be pulled more concertedly N and NE throughout the lower Gulf of Mexico then previous time intervals... Also, the northern aspect of the denser inner cirrus canopy is also beginning to oblong in N direction...

This is significat for me because the wv imagery shows a fairly strong wind maxim coming out of TX into the lower Mississippi Valley in association with fairly potent vort max moving through just to the N. I'm actually wondering if the 12Z guidance is underdone with this feature, which might make them in error in the amount of left motion in the nearer term...
Anyway, for what it's worth...


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Lance Wilson
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 23
Re: Wilma [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #60192 - Thu Oct 20 2005 02:52 PM

Quote:

For what it's worth.... I would not be surprised if we see a concerted N component to Wilma's motion by nightfall - if that acceleration has not already begun..




It looks to be north of the points now. Let's hope it spares Cancun as much as it can... (Of course, that would be bad for me, but I think we can respond better..)

Edited by Lance Wilson (Thu Oct 20 2005 02:53 PM)


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native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida 26.31N 80.11W
Re: Wilma [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #60193 - Thu Oct 20 2005 02:53 PM

You make a very good point indeed. While they (Yucatan) may escape a direct hit (still unknown at this point) Wilma's awfully large and I'm sure they are feeling her effects. Also not to be forgotten...Cuba. The PA statement indicates the mountainous regions on western Cuba could experience the possibility of up to 40 inches of rain! That would surely cause disasterous mudslides. Although rightfully focused on us and ours, you are correct, prayers need to be said for the others as well so, mine go out.

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Convergence
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 35
Loc: Ellicott City, Maryland
Re: Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest [Re: MikeC]
      #60194 - Thu Oct 20 2005 02:53 PM

Well, this new eye structure is interesting. If the structure improves a little more and the eye clears I would call Wilma annular. She already looks a lot like Isabel.

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jaxmike
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 18
Loc: Jacksonville
Re: Moving NNW? [Re: Big Tk]
      #60195 - Thu Oct 20 2005 02:56 PM

Quote:

It is way to early to tell if this is a trend or just a wobble. I don't think will no anything till tomorrow afternoon or friday night.




Understood, but I am dealing in a hypothetical here.

IF it does move more N than forecast, then would it make sense that it makes it further N than forecast because it gets in the Gulf before the steering currents are there to take it East.

Edited by jaxmike (Thu Oct 20 2005 03:02 PM)


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
ERC almost finished [Re: jaxmike]
      #60196 - Thu Oct 20 2005 02:59 PM

Wilma is looking much stronger....
Looks like she has a few remants in her eye.

Zoom of Wilma


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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
NWS MLB [Re: jaxmike]
      #60198 - Thu Oct 20 2005 03:02 PM

Large chunk of the discussion here from MLB containing some interesting information on the effects of Wilma, including possible expansion in wind field.

WX TOTALLY DEPENDANT UPON TRACK/SIZE/TIMING OF TC
WILMA. WHILE NHC FORECAST TRACK INDICATES POTENTIAL LANDFALL ALONG
SW FLORIDA COAST LATE SUNDAY AND EXITING SE COAST EARLY MONDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY LARGE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY...WITH
MOST RECENT NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGAIN SUGGESTING AN EVEN SLOWER
FORWARD MOTION...WITH POSSIBILITY OF STALL NEAR/OVER YUCATAN. LATE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE BASED ON 15Z NHC FORECAST. THIS
FORECAST SUGGESTS GREATEST IMPACT FROM ABOUT SUNSET SUNDAY TO
SUNRISE MONDAY...HOWEVER LATER FORECASTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING.

DURATION OF POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT WX EXPECTED TO LAST 6-10 HOURS
BASED ON FORWARD MOTION OF 15-20 MPH ACROSS PENINSULA. INTERACTION
OF TC WITH STRONG MID LATITUDE TROUGH/FORCING...SUGGESTS TC WILL
BEGIN TRANSITION TO HYBRID/EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR THE TIME
SYSTEM EXITS ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS...WIND FIELDS
WILL EXPAND AND THEREFORE AFFECT A LARGER GEOGRAPHIC AREA.
SO...WHILE TC MAY WEAKEN TO CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT
REACHES EAST COAST...EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM WINDS COULD AFFECT
MUCH/ALL OF CWA IF SYSTEM TRACKS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE OR FURTHER
NORTH. TORNADO THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE TC CORE AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH OUTER RAINBANDS.
RATHER FAST FORWARD MOTION OF TC SHOULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE
RAINS...ALTHOUGH AREAS WHICH EXPERIENCE REPEAT RAINS OVER NEXT FEW
DAYS MAY BECOME VULNERABLE TO LOCAL FLOODING ALONG EVENTUAL TC
TRACK. ALL CENTRAL FLORIDA INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY UP TO
DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS THREAT.

--------------------
"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein


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funky
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 55
Re: Moving NNW? [Re: jaxmike]
      #60200 - Thu Oct 20 2005 03:05 PM

i have to say, that trough (the tail part to the south) sure doesn't look like its gonna pick up Wilma any time soon. although we are seeing the ridge breakup a bit on the northeast side of florida (check out the wv loop http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html). notice then on the vis loop cirrus shield being ripped upwards towards the area i just mentioned.

being in sarasota, i am starting to worry again. will be keeping a very close eye on this thing in the next 24 hours. this is critical --> the speed of Wilma needs to slow down here this evening. if not, my area could be in for hurricane force winds....

Quote:

Quote:

It is way to early to tell if this is a trend or just a wobble. I don't think will no anything till tomorrow afternoon or friday night.




Understood, but I am dealing in a hypothetical here.

IF it does move more N than forecast, then would it make sense that it makes it further N than forecast because it gets in the Gulf before the steering currents are there to take it East.




--------------------
WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 944
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Wilma [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #60201 - Thu Oct 20 2005 03:10 PM

Tip:
I am inclined to ask the same questions you raised, I fact I did earlier this AM when I noted the same thing noting the erosion of the high and the development of what looks to be SW-NE momentum immediately west of the Yucatan.
In addition IF this is now on a NW heading will it ever touch the Yucatan, and if not what is there to keep it around for a day or two...Some of these models have it on Cancun for up to 40 hours...
If the Jet has completed its runs the 18Z runs should have the data you suggested may need to be ingested by the computers...
I think the puzzel will be solved with these next two runs...

--------------------
doug


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emackl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: Moving NNW? [Re: funky]
      #60202 - Thu Oct 20 2005 03:10 PM

NEW THREAD UP!

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: Moving NNW? [Re: funky]
      #60203 - Thu Oct 20 2005 03:12 PM

Actually, if you look at the wv imagery through the http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html channel, you can see a wind maxim coming out of TX into the lower Mississippi Valley... In concert with said ridge erosion is what I believe is inducing the turn from WNW to NW - per the intermediate advisory... More over, and this is subjective opinion from me, I believe that Wilma is at least in the last 2 hours moving almost NW by NNW.. (Used the edge of a piece of paper technique)... Anyway, I'm starting to hunch that this may pull a fast one on the 12Z guidance and never come onshore the Yucatan - might get pretty darn close...

I'm also wondering if the 12Z guidance isn't strong enough with the vort max coming into the middle Miss. Valley area in general..


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: ERC almost finished [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #60206 - Thu Oct 20 2005 03:18 PM

It should be noted that the 12Z GFS shows a NW or even NNW motion from now until late tonight, but then turns Wilma back to the west and stalls it after that, so the increased northerly component that seems to be underway is not necessarily inconsistent with the model solutions of a slowdown or stall of Wilma over the Yucutan. It seems increasingly likely that the steering currents will signficantly weaken in 12-24 hours... exactly how far west Wilma has gotten by that time, and whether it acutally stalls or simply drifts along somewhere after that, will determine how much of a landfall this make over the Yucutan. The models have been consistent with one thing... the further east Wilma is, the sooner it will get picked up, but the models have not been consistent about how far west Wilma will get.

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Wilma [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #60225 - Thu Oct 20 2005 03:39 PM

Afternoon all.

Wilma's eye is starting to clear out nicely. She seems to be emerging from the ERC very well. I think as soon as the eye finishes clearing out, the pressure is going to start dropping like a rock again, and she'll become quite strong up until she runs out of real estate (probably in the pre-dawn hours). If at that time she stalls or moves more northward, a definite possibility (look at the high over NW Mex), she'll probably again maintain steady state Cat 5 into the GOM.

In another hour or so, wave heights at buoy 42056 will reach 30 feet, and should peak in about 8-10 hours.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 337
Loc: Maryland
Re: Wilma [Re: Margie]
      #60242 - Thu Oct 20 2005 04:11 PM

New Thread, everybody

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