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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2913
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida
      #62350 - Sun Oct 23 2005 05:00 PM

11 PM EDT Update
Wilma is now a category 3 storm. Track has not changed.

Full track and archive here: SkeetobiteWeather.com

9:20 PM EDT Update
Recon is reporting 114 Knot winds at flight level, which equates to roughly 103 knots at the surface, or near 120MPH winds.

8:30 PM EDT Update
The latest recon report suggests 110 Knot winds in flight level, which would equate roughly to 115MPH winds at the surface. It looks like Wilma may become a Major Hurricane this evening once again.

8PM EDT Update
Wilma is strengthening. Up to 110MPH winds, it appears that the shear isn't as great, or rather the relative shear isn't as great as expected. It is likely that Wilma will make landfall as a Category 3 system.

The atmosphere this evening is very ripe for short lived Tornadoes and waterspouts spawned off of Wilma. In fact, several tornadoes have already been reported across the peninsula this evening.

Jim Williams from Hurricane City is doing his Hurricane Warning Show tonight you can listen/view his show Here.

The chat room link here is also open tonight.

Original Update
Hurricane Wilma is making its move toward Florida now racing 14mph northeastward to the Peninsula. The outer Squalls of Wilma are beginning to approach the Keys, and conditions there will deteriorate overnight.

Wilma is still forecast to make landfall near Naples as a high category 2 or low category 3 storm, Wilma has strengthened just a bit in the late afternoon, the windspeed is up to 105 MPH from 100. It has a chance to strengthen a little more before landfall.


For reference the threshhold for Category 3 is 115 MPH. It is expected to exit the state around Jupiter. However one should not focus too much on these points, as the error could be large either north or south. Anywhere in the hurricane warning area should be prepared.

As it is rocketing across Florida, it may begin transforming into an extratropical system, which will likely mean an expansive windfield around the system. Make sure loose items in the yard, etc are brought in if you are in the warning area (Tropical Storm) or have an inland wind warning out for your area.

For east central Florida, expect frequent showers and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday, with conditions rapidly deteriorating late Sunday evening.
Expect heavy squalls and winds near hurricane force from 9am Monday morning through 1pm Monday afternoon with three to five inches of rain likely between Sunday morning and Monday evening.

Listen to local media and officials for more details about your specific area and please use official sources for information as well. This is an unofficial site and although we make every effort to be correct and help, we do not have the resources and knowledge that the National Hurricane Center does. Always, If there is any doubt whatever, take their word over what you see here or any unofficial source.


A storm surge of nine to seventeen feet is possible on the west coast near the point of landfall, mostly on the south side because of the direction of approach, ie Everglades City and the 10,000 islands area.
Storm surge is also possible in lake Okeechobee up to 5 to 8 feet.

The potential for tornadoes exists throughout the warning areas.

More to come...

Alpha is now a tropical depression and moving north of the island of Hispaniola. Tropical storm watches/warnings for the southeastern Bahamas have been dropped.


Report Conditions from Wilma in your area here
Make your landfall prediction or forecast in this topic.

Tropical Storm Alpha Discussion

Event Related Links

Long Run Animated Radar recording of Wilma's Florida Approach (Flhurricane mirror of NWS radars)

Stormcarib reports from Cozumel/Cancun (Includes Photos)
Stormcarib reports from the islands
Cancun Radar Animation (Flhurricane mirror) (Note: We have stopped recording this radar, but you still may view Wilma's approach and departure of the Yucatan here)
West cuban Radar

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar

Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL
Lee County, FL
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL

Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne

"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)

Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)

Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will likely be doing his live audio show as Wilma approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.

Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is in Naples, and has set up equpiment to record the storm in Marco island and in Everglades City see some of his live streaming video and audio here

Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob

WebCams
Royal Resorts Webcams in Cancun
The Royal Sands Animated WebCam (Flhurricane Mirrored)

Reply and let us know of other links.

Wilma

* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of Wilma - Static Image
Wilma Microwave Imagery Animation
Various Wilma Satellite Imagery
Floater Satellite with storm track overlays
Floater IR Satellite with storm track/front overlays
Weather Underground Model Plots
cimss page

Tropical Storm Alpha

* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic of TD#25
[url=http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?25]South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of
Various Alpha Satellite Imagery
TD#25[/url] - Static Image
cmss page

Edited by SkeetoBite (Sun Oct 23 2005 11:12 PM)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #62353 - Sun Oct 23 2005 05:05 PM

(Repost) Pressure down a little more and the eye diameter is shrinking if the vortex reports are accurate, which would allow for more intensification if it continues.

I assume the increase in winds is due to that one dropsonde in the eastern eyewall I mentioned earlier. The most recent dropsonde in the NE eyewall measured 86 kt surface winds. There is a NOAA plane with an SFMR in the area, which may have some additional data on the surface wind speed. It'll be interesting to see what the discussion says.

URNT12 KNHC 232053
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/20:30:10Z
B. 23 deg 34 min N
085 deg 03 min W
C. 700 mb 2760 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 144 deg 088 kt
G. 044 deg 052 nm
H. 959 mb
I. 8 C/ 3055 m
J. 15 C/ 3048 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C45
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.03 / 2 nm
P. AF304 2124A Wilma OB 32
MAX FL WIND 96 KT SE QUAD 17:16:40 Z


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LizL
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 17
Loc: St Cloud, Fl
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62355 - Sun Oct 23 2005 05:12 PM

Osceola County Report
POSTED: 4:47 pm EDT August 17, 2004
UPDATED: 4:22 pm EDT October 23, 2005
NOTE:
Winds of tropical storm force expected to arrive in St. Cloud at 5 a.m. Monday, peaking at 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph around the 11 a.m. hour, and dropping below tropical storm force by 5 p.m.
A state of emergency in St. Cloud will be declared at Sunday night.
EVACUATIONS:
The county will be issuing evacuation information Sunday for residents living in manufactured homes and low lying areas prone to flooding.
CLOSURES:
Osceola Schools will be close on Monday, Oct. 24. As student safety is paramount, Superintendent Blaine Muse has closed all Osceola public and charter schools on Monday, Oct. 24, due to Hurricane Wilma. No employees should report to work unless directed by their supervisor for emergency purposes.
Also, Kissimmee City Hall will be closed Monday, Oct. 24 and all non-essential employees do not need to report to work.
Kissimmee Utility Authority (KUA) offices will be closed for normal business on Monday, Oct. 24. An operations meeting will be held on Monday morning to determine hours of operation for the remainder of the week.

City of St. Cloud offices are closed Monday.

All Barry University sites throughout Central Florida and the Treasure Coast will be closed through Monday, October 24, due to Hurricane Wilma. This includes all programs in the Orlando and Treasure Coast areas, i.e. all sites throughout Brevard, Highlands, Martin, Orange, Osceola, Polk and St. Lucie counties. Barry University has also announced that all sites in Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Lee, Collier, Highlands, Desoto, Manatee and Sarasota counties will be closed throughout Monday.


SAND BAGS:


The City of Kissimmee Public Works Department is currently distributing free sandbags to residents until 7:00 p.m.

The city has already prepared 6,000 sandbags and has the capability to prepare another 30,000 if necessary.

The sandbags may be obtained at the Public Works service center located at 2201 Mabbette St., just behind the YMCA off Thacker Avenue.

Residents may pick-up no more than 12 sandbags per household.

The city asks recipients to supply valid ID to verify their address.


INFORMATION:

The EOC will be activated at 2 a.m. Monday and will remain operational until the threat from Hurricane Wilma ceases.


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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: LizL]
      #62357 - Sun Oct 23 2005 05:17 PM

We just got our first feeder band here in Port Charlotte, not too bad kinda breezy. I'm thinking a lot of the trees that barely survived Charley aren't gonna make it...

Hurricane Charley '04(Port Charlotte)


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Bev
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 98
Loc: Cortez, FL 27.59N 82.43W
Cuban Radar <repost> [Re: LizL]
      #62358 - Sun Oct 23 2005 05:18 PM

The radar at La Bajada, Cuba has the entire eyewall.
La Bajada Radar

Other Cuban Radar Locations:

Cuban Radar Sites

-Bev


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re:Position <Repost> [Re: Bev]
      #62359 - Sun Oct 23 2005 05:22 PM

That last vortex message is about ten miles at 290 degrees from the 5:00PM EDT position from NHC. Granted, when you have a 45 mile wide eye, ten miles is still in the eye. Don't like seeing that pressure drop continuing. Does not bode well.

--------------------
Jim


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re:Position <Repost> [Re: Rasvar]
      #62360 - Sun Oct 23 2005 05:29 PM

No sign yet of increasing shear adversely affecting the system, as noted by NHC in their latest discussion. They seemed to have backed off on weakening the storm much before landfall. The system increasing in forward speed in the same direction as the deep layer flow will mitigate the shear effects somewhat. That is why it looked so dangerous for Florida a few days ago when it looked like a stronger Wilma was going to go through the Yucatan channel... there was not going to be much time for the shear to weaken it once it reached the Gulf. As it is, it is still a large and dangerous hurricane and should not be taken lightly.

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 570
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62362 - Sun Oct 23 2005 05:37 PM

...Wilma has spent the day traversing over top a local heat content maxim as notable by: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2005295go.jpg ....a region indirectly associated with the well-discussed loop. There is a lag-time for response, even in the highly coupled boundary-layer/SS environment of the TC model... Wilma is no exception and we are tending to see colder ct explosions and a weak attempt at a better defined CDO as we type, which will likely continue while she avails of the additional heat injection...

It is not unthinkable that Wilma could go through a 3 hour period of more rapid intensification; we may be on the threshold of seeing that happened this evening. She has little room to spare and I think cat-3 is easy from here on out... Just my opinion. She is also got an awesome outflow channel established NNE, which may also be keyed into the westerlies veering into a front entrance jet structure just N of a stationary boundary in the area... This could all presage a rapid transition scenario just off the SE Coast. Once she gets over land and the western ends of the boundary should start crashing into her backside... rasping in cooler and drier continental air... This will almost immediately establish cold frontogensis because at that time she will be intertwining, rather complexly, with the jet structure associated with a very powerful U/A low settling into the Ohio Valley and will have differential thermal advection in her southern flanks... (1st signal to transition is the establishment of baroclinic boundaries and most models also show mid- tropospheric warm frontal genisis extending out into the open Atlantic as Wilm climbs in latitude, as well)

If you are in Eastern New England, you'd better have contingency plans if you are prone to marine attacks...Just in case... Hurricane Bob did a billion in damage to marine interests along and this "could" conceivable be almost as costly because it will have a much greater areal assault of less winds. We currently have high wind watches established for eastern coastal Massachusetts... 970mb hybrid bomb is crashing NNE up underneath a 1034mb high in Quebec... Umm... Do the math. If the absolute phased scenario pans out and an extratropical low is born of Wilmas potential energy, could be a real press maker. One saving factor is that we are at the astro-low side of the tide cycle...But, with 70mph (potential) sustained NE winds and extremely low bp we are likely going to have at least a 3 to 4 foot storm surge...Tides are slated in the 8.9 foot (mean) during the high tide Tuesday and that could be trouble with 20foot breakers are crashing to shore..

If that were not enough, there are deeper convective elements popping in the vicinity of Alpha as it is moving off the N Coast of Hispanola, over SSTs that are still warm enough for TC, under an upper level anticyclone that is transiently located over the eastern Bahamas... Fairly obvious curved banding suggests that NHC allusion to regeneration may be afoot... This system is modeled to recurve but I have issues with that taking place. The Nor'easter over night is fast escaping and there'll be a natural rebound in the ridge tendencies in it's wake; meanwhile, the U/A low and trough in the Ohio Valley is in the process of taking on deeper meridianal extent, which "should" mean heights out in the Atlantic would teleconnect higher... The combination of these feed-backs would tend to a model solution closer to the 12Z GFDL than those provided by the 18Z run... Not sure why it reverted back to the 06Z-like pathways in the models et al for that matter, because the 12Z made for a better intuitive fit... Actually, for New England's sake, they'd probably better hope the ridge hypothesis above doesn't work out and Alpha recurves and doesn't get caught up in the fruckus of Wilma's rage. It just seems to me that this plot could all get very hairy in a hurry if Alpha explosively regenerates and takes bee-line at Long Island during the next 24 hours, because the models and man, neither would have really seen that coming - or at least I suspect that to this point, that "outside" possibility hasn't really been talked about... But imagine that...having a tropical storm slam in with almost no warning and then have to deal with a transitioning Nor'easter with warm core characteristics... It would be truly rare..

Update 1: Also, not to be insensitive because yes INDEED...I should be focussed on Florida concerns first in deference to urgencies..
Update 2: Judging by recent IR frames I am inclined to think that indeed....a rapid intensification is underway...

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Oct 23 2005 05:45 PM)


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efaulkSWFLA
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 17
Loc: Fort Myers, Florida 26.46N 81.80W
Re:Position <Repost> [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62363 - Sun Oct 23 2005 05:42 PM

Good Evening all..
FInal preparations are complete, and the wait has begun.. Cant get myself away from football to check out local info, so I am catching up here online. I am expecting hurricane force winds, but still wondering how bad they will be. In looking at that few visable loops I see it "possibly" taking a bit more of a northern (or left) track, than the forcast points.. Is that me reading into this incorrectly? Or is this movement possible now that the storm is picking up its forward speed?

Any info would be excellent...

Edit: the very best info for you can be seen on your local forecast page here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.php?CityName=Fort+Myers&state=FL&site=TBW



Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sun Oct 23 2005 05:57 PM)


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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 66
Loc: 28.33N 80.69W
Re:Position <Repost> [Re: efaulkSWFLA]
      #62365 - Sun Oct 23 2005 05:47 PM

The eye is coming into view on this radar out of KW

Ft Myers is about to get it's initial heavy stuff

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx_N0Z_lp.shtml


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 811
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re:Position <Repost> [Re: efaulkSWFLA]
      #62367 - Sun Oct 23 2005 05:48 PM

Looks pretty consistently NE to me. Better organization now being seen on the vis floater loop. Also, East CONUS WV Loop really shows the trough dropping southward from Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri with a wind/vorticity max in the Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana area.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 1/1/0


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 321
Loc: Orlando, FL
Forum Rules Revisited [Re: MichaelA]
      #62373 - Sun Oct 23 2005 05:58 PM

The site bandwidth could be severely tested today as the storm approaches the coast, but you can help by not posting the obvious and keeping your posts informative. We need to reduce the number of one-liners so that we can keep the site up and running during this serious event. Your help is appreciated. Some one-liners are ok if they are informative - just try to keep the number of them down.

Post FACTS in this thread.. the rest belongs in the Forecast Lounge.

Thank you!


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Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 119
TORNADO WARNING - TAMPA AREA [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #62377 - Sun Oct 23 2005 06:03 PM

TORNADO ON THE GROUND NEAR TAMPA - multiple visual reports of a rope.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
548 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN HARDEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHEASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHEASTERN MANATEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 548 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO OVER NORTHWESTERN HARDEE COUNTY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT...
FORT GREEN BY 550 PM EDT.
FORT LONESOME BY 615 PM EDT.

AT 545 PM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ALSO REPORTED SEVERAL
PUBLIC SITINGS OF A TORNADO ON THE GROUND JUST SOUTHWEST OF ZOLFO
SPRINGS.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER YOUR HEAD AND
BODY WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.


&&

LAT...LON 2749 8200 2762 8186 2787 8212 2768 8223

$$

--------------------
Do you dive? http://www.scubaforum.org
Invest? Come talk on the Tickerforum


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re:Position <Repost> [Re: engicedave]
      #62378 - Sun Oct 23 2005 06:08 PM

Taking a break from the fourth load of laundry!

Wilma's continuing to look better but at a very slow rate; the area of convection has been steadily growing. She still hasn't been able to get the needed organization around the core.

She's going to be moving over the loop current about the next six hours. There's no sign of the shear they talked about, so as I posted when I got on this am (11ish), this is the time coming up when she will have the best opportunity to intensify, which now looks to be between about 7pm and 2am.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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3rdGenFlaNative
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 8
Loc: Polk County, FL
Re: TORNADO WARNING - TAMPA AREA [Re: Genesis]
      #62379 - Sun Oct 23 2005 06:08 PM

GULP! Tornado warning here in Lakeland, Radar on channel 8 shows a NASTY cell headed our way. This is what has made me nervous all along. Stay safe everyone. Here we go!

--------------------
28.0 N 81.9 W
Inland Tropical Storm Warning
Tornado Watch

Began my entrance into this world during Hurricane Dora, 1964 - Have since experienced effects from: David ('79) - Irene ('99) - Charley, Frances, and Jeanne ('04)


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 321
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: TORNADO WARNING - SARASOTA COUNTY [Re: 3rdGenFlaNative]
      #62380 - Sun Oct 23 2005 06:23 PM

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
618 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SARASOTA COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT

* AT 618 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A TORNADO 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF NORTH PORT...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 35
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT...
MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK BY 635 PM EDT.
LAUREL BY 640 PM EDT.
BEE RIDGE BY 645 PM EDT.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER YOUR HEAD AND
BODY WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.

IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE INTO A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...
SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH...OR LOW SPOT...AND COVER YOUR HEAD
WITH YOUR HANDS.


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harmlc.ath.cx
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 54
Loc: Longwood
Re: TORNADO WARNING - SARASOTA COUNTY [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #62383 - Sun Oct 23 2005 06:29 PM

Local stations here in metro orlando are asking for everyone to be aware of a strong cell of storms heading north with the possiblities of tornados in the next hour.

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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 66
Loc: 28.33N 80.69W
Re: TORNADO WARNING - SARASOTA COUNTY [Re: harmlc.ath.cx]
      #62384 - Sun Oct 23 2005 06:32 PM

The link listed for the Key West radar also flashes the Tornado cells/areas in boxes

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx_N0Z_lp.shtml

BTW - Click on "Autoupdate" and just let it go...refreshes automatically every 5 min


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 321
Loc: Orlando, FL
Excellent current wind field display [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #62385 - Sun Oct 23 2005 06:32 PM

Over 200 miles across:

http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_field.asp


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2913
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #62389 - Sun Oct 23 2005 06:41 PM

Fix for last post. There was an issue with the forums n the last few posts. Nothing was lost, just moved around. It should be ok now, however.


Edited by MikeC (Sun Oct 23 2005 06:45 PM)


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