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Area for development tagged in the Bay of Campeche (SW Gulf), 20% development in next 5 days (may increase later into next week)
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 226 (Zeta) , Major: 289 (Laura) Florida - Any: 975 (Michael) Major: 975 (Michael)
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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4365
Loc: Orlando, FL
Beta Now Category 3, Landfall in Nicaragua Later Today
      #63311 - Fri Oct 28 2005 07:33 PM

430AM EST-Sunday Update
Beta is now the 7th Major Hurricane of the 2005 Atlantic Season.
Landfall should occur within the next 8-12 hours.
~dw

UPDATE: As of 2AM Saturday, now a Category 1 hurricane. NHC indicates that the turn to the west has begun.
-HF

Tropical Storm Beta is moving slowly northward today, but expected to bend back westward toward the coast of Nicaragua. It may be a category 1 or 2 hurricane as it makes landfall. It has been taking a while and moving a bit more north than originally thought, but it is still forecast to move back westward.



There is another area east of Beta near Jamaica worth watching too. Looks like the Caribbean will be busy for a little bit over the next several days.


Chances for tropical development south of Jamaica in the next two days:
Code:

forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[---*------------------]



Event Related links
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Beta

* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of Beta - Static Image
cimss Beta Page

91L

* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of 90L - Static Image

Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 30 2005 07:05 AM)


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Marlinfan65
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2
Re: Beta Moves West [Re: MikeC]
      #63312 - Fri Oct 28 2005 07:48 PM

Hi all. Long time lurker of the site. Just wanted to thank everone for the great information prior to Wilma hitting South Florida. I live in NW Broward county and just got my power back. Made out pretty well thanks to new building codes and some good advise from fellow posters. Anyone interested can view a short video I shot
out a small opening in my back door during the peak of the southern eyewall passing.
Steve B.
Wilma video


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Beta Moves West [Re: MikeC]
      #63313 - Fri Oct 28 2005 07:54 PM

I am certain that out of all of the Caribbean disturbances, that something may escape in the form of a winter storm or extratropical system, due to the fact that we had a flock of the white waterbirds that resemble flamingos or king fishers to come up into my yard and linger around the neighborhood today as though they were looking for a calmer safer place to be. This has happened each and every time that a storm headed from the Caribbean or Cape Verdi area in the Florida direction. It happened with Stan, Katrina, and Wilma. I believe it also happened with Dennis as well. This is not a forecast for a storm to hit Florida nor is it an intensity forecast, the birds simply seem to respond to something in the atmosphere that says to be careful. So, maybe a little energy from one of those disturbances may escape towards this direction before the Caribbean cools down for the winter.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Beta Moves West [Re: MikeC]
      #63315 - Fri Oct 28 2005 09:11 PM

Did I miss something?

Beta moved from 81.4 to 81.3 in the last 24 hours.

Yes, basically just being a smart-alec.

But you may yet have to change the title of this post!

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Beta Moves West [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #63316 - Fri Oct 28 2005 09:49 PM

I live in Delray, power is still off. We decided to go to South Each for the weekend. My kids are in private school, one started today (with no power) and the other starts Monday (with power). No more perishbles in the cooler so we're keeping our fingers crossed that power will be on Sunday. We had trouble with sewage from the pumps being down, so the Water Dept had to come and hook a generator to the pump; they say we're good for 4 days now.

We had neighborhood parties every night, but its getting old fast. My office has been closed for a week and with sporatic cell service its been a pain. This has been much worse than Francis & Jeanne combined. Especially when my hurricane shutters (3 of them) flew off the house. I should say were ripped off the house by the force of the wind.


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La Nimo
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 42
Loc: st. pete beach
Re: Beta Moves West [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63317 - Fri Oct 28 2005 09:53 PM

Were they the High plastic shutters you used, because I found they need to be carefully installed, or they come off in a high wind.

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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Beta Moves West [Re: La Nimo]
      #63318 - Fri Oct 28 2005 10:07 PM

The lexan shutters were fine. It was the metal ones. It wasn't the shutter, the entire screw was ripped from the house. We're in the process of replacing that and the other 2 slidders with impact glass. We're also gettinga generator since we have natural gas.

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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Beta Moves West [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #63319 - Fri Oct 28 2005 10:40 PM

Hey Guppie maybe they're responding to statistical data:

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200526_climo.gif

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Beta Moves West [Re: Margie]
      #63320 - Fri Oct 28 2005 10:47 PM

Its moving NNW at the 11pm update and also they moved the track wayyyyy south.


Sorry no tampa.
who exactly are you trying to bait, ralph? no tampa takers on this one, bud. you're all alone. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Oct 28 2005 11:00 PM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Beta Moves West [Re: ralphfl]
      #63321 - Fri Oct 28 2005 10:55 PM

Reading through the 11pm discussion, this line is interesting:

"BETA IS
GOING THROUGH ITS USUAL UP AND DOWN CYCLE IN THE CONVECTION AND NOW
IT IS ON THE UPWARD TREND WITH A VENGEANCE.
"

I'd quote the whole thing, but you can read it over at the NHC


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Beta Moves West [Re: Random Chaos]
      #63322 - Fri Oct 28 2005 11:10 PM

the official forecast is about the same as last time.. NHC crew thinks the long-awaited turn is starting, too. whereas wednesday night we were talking about this thing hitting near bluefields far to the south, tonight it's up north of puerto cabezas, almost on the honduras border. official turns it hard enough to keep it out of the gulf of honduras, which looks pretty much right. once the storm weakens enough the low level flow should continue to push it west/inland... very slowly. the huge pacific moisture surge associated with a strongly negative SOI that accompanied stan's crossing of the region at the beginning of the month is not there this time. pattern is positive SOI and the trades should be strong enough to prevent quite the areal extent of flooding that stan managed.. but where the core moves over slowly there ought to be some considerable flooding. lots of deforested hillslopes in the region that like to come down on upland hamlets. we can only hope that the governments in the region are raising public awareness about the dangers they may be facing when the storm arrives.
secondary interests: the 91L feature had a widespread convective area this afternoon.. but that has decayed to more scattered stuff this evening. still a low-level gyre near 70-72w... which should pinwheel along the northeast flank of beta. too close and disorganized now to do any significant development for the next few days, but will be interesting if a discrete entity remains once beta is inland and decaying.
wave near 48w with a large associated turning and scattered convection is plowing westward towards the caribbean. may encounter a more favorable environment as it closes in. this feature will be with us into early next month, though no models show any significant activity with it.
nothing more beyond that except to mention that the favorable pattern in the caribbean should continue through the near future.
HF 0310z29october


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Beta Moves West [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63326 - Sat Oct 29 2005 12:46 AM

Please tell me what I am missing, because it seems to me the NW dir it has gone in the last five hours (0.3N 0.3W change in dir) is only indicative of steering because of the features to Beta's NE, not anything to do with a ridge of high pressure in the GOM that hasn't built yet, that will force the turn to the west. So final concensus on whether Beta turns is not clear yet. The only thing that is clear is that some NW movement is going to occur. Also if Beta gets the opportunity to strengthen, before the ridge gets in place, won't there be more of a tendency to move more NNW or NW, not to the west.

Also...wish that the questions I'd asked about the upper level low moving into the W ATL / Carib had been moved to this new thread, as it seems it is already starting to have a big impact on the upper level wind flow of the air around that strong high in the ATL, and I'd like to hear more feedback about what it could affect in the Caribbean.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Tak
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 41
Loc: Altamonte Springs, FL
Re: Beta Moves West [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63327 - Sat Oct 29 2005 12:53 AM

Lurker since 99. Great site.

On IR looks like Beta has had some really cold cloud tops bloom. Also, what is the feature at 11N 60W? On water vapor looks like definite spin.

By the way, I enjoy the bickering between Ralph and the rest of the world.

that thing at 11/60 is an upper low. not with you on the bickering part... -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Oct 29 2005 02:03 AM)


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Beta Moves West [Re: Margie]
      #63328 - Sat Oct 29 2005 01:02 AM

Hi Margie...for what it's worth, here is our last interchange on that disturbance

Quote:

That's not what I'm wanting to know.

I read the TWD and this is what it had to say (they tend to mainly be observational):

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 10N57W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND INLAND SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 4N TO AT LEAST 20N AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 52W AND 63W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM I9N52W TO 9N63W.

It just appears to me that it is barreling into the Caribbean and already pulling some moisture from the tropical wave+91L. I want to know the implications of how it could interact with the tropical wave and the high that is over the central Caribbean. Remember there is no vorticity currently at all with the tropical wave.

BTW on the NRL site, they have switched the image of 91L to the other tropical wave in the central Caribbean, so I'm guessing that 91L has been mostly absorbed there, but NRL is still going to refer to it as 91L?





Quote:


Oh...I see... well, in that case.. not sure what the implications will be but in the hierarchy of atmospheric phenomenon, believe it or not, .the u/a low will always win... If it barrels along and tumbles into the western caribbean, it would be shredding the convective elements and absorbing them into the circulation core of the u/a vortex, as well as damping out the more typical upper level wave structure in the atmosphere - speaking in terms of the central Caribbean wave that is....

As for Beta, with more stowed momentum and development she'd fight off the impending shear quite a bit but would eventually subcumb by being attenuated until it was too weak to fight any more and it too would get gobbled alive; that is, should the unlikely occur with the u/a low, that it would careen smartly into Beta's vicinity...

...the models do not really show this feature too well and so it is unclear if/what/when/how it will interact with any activity further down the line. However, with a deep layer subtropical ridge N and NW tending to gain amplitude, it would probably tend this feature on a continued W or perhaps slightly WNW heading.. It would interesting really, because it would likely then have to slow down near the Puerto Rico to Cuban Archipelago area and spin for awhile - if not spin down.




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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Beta Moves West [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63330 - Sat Oct 29 2005 07:56 AM

As of 8 am the satellite imagery is looking very intense and beta does not appear to be going west anymore. But, we can always hope.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Hurricane Beta [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #63331 - Sat Oct 29 2005 08:58 AM

Quiet here...only one post since 1am...

Just getting people up to date: We now have a 70kt hurricane.


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Beta Moves West [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #63332 - Sat Oct 29 2005 09:15 AM

Quote:

As of 8 am the satellite imagery is looking very intense and beta does not appear to be going west anymore. But, we can always hope.




The high-level flow would seem to push Beta west into Honduras based on visible imagery... I can clearly see the flow moving from east to west.... but... Beta ain't moving. Looking at the WV loop, it (is Beta a he or a she? LOL) is caught between opposing forces and going nowhere. I say it sneaks northward enough to get into the Gulf of Honduras, if not even further northward. The deep cloud tops seem to be trying to form even further north, so Beta might even reform north of its current position, although I think a gradual merger of the two cloud masses is more likely. Actually now I see THREE distinct bursts of convection... at least - not counting the former 91L. If all of those congeal into Beta, we could be looking at a massive storm, size-wise.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Beta Moves West [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #63333 - Sat Oct 29 2005 09:53 AM

I think the birds know something. After Rita hit and my husband came home to survey the damage he found bird poop lined
up in a row along the bench and the windowsills on the back porch. I feed the birds so they must have taken refuge on the porch for
safety. What was interesting is how you could tell they had lined up closest to the brick wall on the porch.

How much rain will Beta bring to Nicaragua? Also, is this the last storm are do ya'll think there will be another one?


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Beta Moves West [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #63334 - Sat Oct 29 2005 10:35 AM

Quote:

I think the birds know something. After Rita hit and my husband came home to survey the damage he found bird poop lined
up in a row along the bench and the windowsills on the back porch. I feed the birds so they must have taken refuge on the porch for
safety. What was interesting is how you could tell they had lined up closest to the brick wall on the porch.
How much rain will Beta bring to Nicaragua? Also, is this the last storm are do ya'll think there will be another one?




If Beta makes landfall in Nicaragua... lots! If not, still quite a bit.

Looking at the big picture.... I think we'll see at least two more storms before the end of the year. I see two areas - one approaching the islands that looks pathetic, another that will approach the islands in a couple of days probably that looks somewhat less pathetic. Even if neither of those develop, the way things are going this year, we're likely to have a front stall out sometime in November and form into Gamma. I also would not be shocked to see Delta form in December. We could be looking at another Storm of the Century type situation this winter.

I just read the 11am Discussion on Beta. This is interesting:
In addition...some of the deep tropical moisture associated with Beta
may get drawn into a developing winter-type low pressure system
over the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

What do they mean by "winter-type" low pressure system over the GOM? I do NOT like the sound of that! "Winter-type" sounds an awful lot like ice and snow.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sat Oct 29 2005 10:42 AM)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Thanks [Re: Hugh]
      #63335 - Sat Oct 29 2005 10:40 AM

Thanks for all your pm's.It is still a big mess here,and there are very long lines for gas.Thanks again for all your kind words.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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