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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go
      #63578 - Sun Nov 13 2005 11:09 PM

The area of disturbed weather in the southeastern Caribbean sea has developed into a tropical cyclone, based on radar and surface reports from the Windward Islands.

Caribbean Weather Reports

The system is forecast to move generally westward, and the NHC is suggesting that it expects a hurricane later in the week. For the near term it is under considerable shear, though an anticyclone is forecast to develop aloft in the path of the system by midweek. There is always the chance that it will crash ahead into shear and rid us of tropical worries; that appears an unlikely scenario at this point. Next name on the list is Gamma.

Models are not terribly convergent on it's future, though the ones that have been correctly forecasting this system's development show a significant hurricane reaching the western Caribbean later in the week. Some of the dynamic models favor a track further south, near the coast of South America.

Storm 27 Model Plots

In the long range, the synoptic pattern would tend to favor one of three things--a speeding track into Central America, a sharp recurvature across Cuba, or a potential stall/meander scenario later in the week.
There are a couple of other areas of interest--they are real longshots. Modeling is showing the potential for low pressure further east of 27, though none show more than broad, weak lows. There is still low pressure near Panama in some model runs as well. This area is persisting even though convection became scarce there today. There is also a deep layer low forecast to dive southwest over the central Atlantic during the coming days. GFS shows way too much shear over it for any development, but it may have the profile distorted. It will penetrate into the tropics, if nothing else.
There don't appear to be any U.S. threats, but any system in the Caribbean is a worry for plenty of people. This is not a fish-storm scenario as some tend to call it, unless it acts really weird (check Marco in 1996 for a proxy Caribbean fish-storm).

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1996/MARCO/track.gif

The forecast track may end up resembling Joan of 1988, for those of you into climo-history.

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1988/JOAN/track.gif

Or for an alternate scenario, try:

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1932/10/track.gif

It's late season, and only the real hurricane buffs are still around--so feel free to post away.
-HF

TD #27 (from Skeetobite)

Click for full size:

Animated Model Graphic Skeetobite
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of TD#27 - Static Image
cimss TD#27 Page


Edited by MikeC (Mon Nov 14 2005 07:19 AM)


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63579 - Sun Nov 13 2005 11:25 PM

what would name be.....Gamma?

yep. shoulda mentioned that.... -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Nov 13 2005 11:27 PM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63580 - Sun Nov 13 2005 11:39 PM

Not too many late November storms form in that area and I imagine we will have to look at other tracks for storms with similar weather patterns as exist at this time.

Pretty amazing... thanks for the data and discussion.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 96
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63581 - Sun Nov 13 2005 11:47 PM

While I run up the white flag, let me be the first to cry "UNCLE!" I just finished removing all my storm panel tracks this past week so we could get some un-airconditioned fresh air into the house, and I also pulled out and tested the Christmas lights so I could begin decorating for the holidays. Ya, I know, it's highly unlikely for a hurricane to make a US landfall in November, but this has been a highly unlikely season. And I don't like the line from the latest NHC discussion, "IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD END UP STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN 72 HOURS." So tell me, o weather gurus, am I going to be putting up my Christmas decorations or my storm panels during Thanksgiving week? Is there any way to appease the weather gods? Am I going to be eating turkey or is my goose cooked?

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saluki
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 57
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63582 - Sun Nov 13 2005 11:53 PM

Looking WAY down the road, obviously, but ... what are the chances of this getting far enough to affect South Florida, and, if so, could it be strong enough this late in the year to be a real threat? It seems that this year has been active enough to never say never to any scenario.

I think my fellow South Florida posters will back me up when I say we are very storm-weary and storm-wary in this area as the post-Wilma hangover lingers. Here in Broward County, electricity wasn't fully restored until two days ago.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Here we go...again [Re: saluki]
      #63583 - Mon Nov 14 2005 12:05 AM

Key West NWS, Afternoon AFD has mention of the "possibility" of tropical weather in the area for next weekend.
This is a must read for The Florida Keys residents and Southern Florida. Based on the wording and use of heavy words in the Discussion~danielw
FXUS62 KEYW 131914
AFDEYW

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
215 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005...edited~danielw

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE OVER NORTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 60W SOUTH OF 20N.
THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WEST ACROSS THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR THE GRENADINES. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY
RELAX SOMEWHAT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPMENT. IF THIS
SYSTEM DOES INDEED DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE EARLIEST
IT COULD REACH THE KEYS` LONGITUDE WILL BE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
SITUATION. DUE TO A HIGH DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED
WITH POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...THE SAFE BET IS TO STICK WITH
AN EXTENDED FORECAST BASED UPON CLIMATOLOGY.
(bold emphasis added by danielw)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDEYW&version=1&max=51


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: saluki]
      #63584 - Mon Nov 14 2005 12:31 AM

Lets not get too excited about any South Florida possibilities yet. TD 27 has formed about 100 miles west of St. Vincent and it is currently moving to the west at 10mph. The Tropical Depression is expected to reach Tropical Storm strength in the next 24 to 36 hours, but moderate westerly shear to the immediate north should inhibit any rapid development for the next couple of days.

The wind shear is expected to decrease as the storm moves to the west or west northwest - but the westward movement should be rather slow. Once the system gets west of 70W, a more rapid intensification could take place...but the cyclone has to survive the next 48 hours first.

If the system moves slightly south of west, intensification could be a little quicker. If the system takes more of a jog to the northwest in the 24 to 48 hour timeframe, the westerly shear could tear it apart. Any threat to South Florida and the Keys is still at least 6 - perhaps 7 - days off. At the moment that threat is minimal, but just keep an eye on this one during the week.
ED


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #63585 - Mon Nov 14 2005 01:23 AM

Gonna be another issue of timing with this one. There's a pretty sharp trough projected to hit the east coast in about 4 days -- still remains to be seen whether or not it'll be enough to capture what will probably end up being Gamma and turn it northward. I think it will at some point, but I agree that any US impact is still ~6 or so days away. Still a near-equal chance it keeps trucking westward and misses the trough, particularly if it moves slower than anticipated, or that it gets turned up and out to sea across Cuba & the Bahamas like one of those storms that HF posted. Got plenty of time to watch it, though.

Posted up a new blog about this one...probably resume the season-in-review stuff after this one's done. For those interested and that have noticed the lack of MM5 runs lately, we've restarted our realtime MM5 at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/ on a once-daily (00Z runs; all data available by 15z/10a ET) basis at 54km/18km/6km resolution for as long as TD 27/future(?) Gamma is out there.


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mojorox
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 46
Loc: Orlando
Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Clark]
      #63588 - Mon Nov 14 2005 02:30 AM

I just do not know what to say. This has been the season from hades.

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UKCloudgazer
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 21
Loc: Wallasey
Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Clark]
      #63589 - Mon Nov 14 2005 03:56 AM

Thanks for MM5. Wondered what had happened to it. Stuck on October 24th on the set of 6 models. Will they update it?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Check the main MM5 website; probably will not update the files on the TCgengifs page for now. --Clark

I noticed that UKmet was predicting quite intense, where they normally seem rather conservative compared to others.

By the way, is the low pressure system several models feature off Portugal in about 6 days the central Atlantic low that HF mentioned? Much cooler water up there.

Edited by Clark (Mon Nov 14 2005 02:18 PM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: UKCloudgazer]
      #63592 - Mon Nov 14 2005 07:36 AM

The shear is very visible on IR, but it's still maintaining very deep convection reguardless of the shear. I wonder how development will go?

Interesting what GFDL is doing - bringing this system to a major hurricane in about 3.5-4 days. Note that the NHC mentions that the GFDL tends to overdevelop systems in shear...and recall that the GFDL is also known for a lot of oscilation in the forcast intensity before the system defines itself well.


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Random Chaos]
      #63593 - Mon Nov 14 2005 09:09 AM

This is crazy. We are ten days away from Thanksgiving and yet we have to worry about a hurricane hitting florida. Nobody has said it would hit here, but i read that it shouldn't be a threat to S. Fla or the Keys for another 6 or 7 days. That's comforting. I am starting to think that this season will never end. The water is cooler and upper winds have changed, but we are still dealing with storms. I am losing my patience and nerve! What are the serious chances of this storm effecting Florida in the next 2 weeks? Answer this post or feel free to PM me. Thank you!

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: damejune2]
      #63594 - Mon Nov 14 2005 09:19 AM

All the models show something different. I read it shouldn't be a threat at all in the Sun Sentinel, but would agree it's too early to tell. I think the only thing in our favor this time if it does come this way it will cross cooler waters and Cuba first.

I was thinking after I saw this that I would have to take down some loose roof tiles so I don't loose anymore.


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63595 - Mon Nov 14 2005 09:24 AM

Is it me, or is the GFS not strengthening this at all?

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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63596 - Mon Nov 14 2005 09:32 AM

Anyone look at the Canadian model lately? The model has the future Gamma going West and then NW and then near Cuba it makes a big right turn. After that it goes south of the Keys and through the Fla straits and into the Northern Bahamas. All other models have this storm not doing anything or heading into Central America. GFDL has it at 107kts just off the Central American coast - i think it's Nic or Honduras.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: damejune2]
      #63597 - Mon Nov 14 2005 09:38 AM

I know I'll catch flack for this, but I don't think the CMC is right very often, especially for depressions. I was always told that the GFDL & GFS are more relaible. I also thought and correct me if I'm wrong that BAMM is the most accurate for depressions. All of those seem to have no development or an arrival in Central America.

Let's pray it dies out.


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63598 - Mon Nov 14 2005 10:10 AM

Looks like the 06Z GFDL and the 00Z CMC (along with the UKMET) have the storm track about right. A large ridge will keep the system moving W or W-NW the next 4-5 days. After that things could get real interesting. A strong trough is forecast now to be re-enforcing and sharpening the east coast long-wave trough on Sunday. Both the CMC & UKMET pick up on this & turn the storm N-NE and then NE somewhere south of Cuba. As always, it will be a question of timing. While the CMC has a penchant for over-developing hurricanes - it is not out of the realm of possiblity for a major hurricane to form south of Cuba and roar across Cuba N-NE into S FL or the Bahamas. Everyone in peninsula FL needs to keep a close eye on this soon to be Gamma. The odds strongly favor re-curvature - just a matter of how far west and north Gamma gets prior to this happening. I don't buy the central america track unless this thing really rides south of its projected path the next 4-5 days. I would not entirely rule out a Wilma track, tropical storm Keith (1988) or Hurricane Kate track (1985), although the odds of this storm hitting the panhandle I think are extremely low.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation

--------------------
RJB


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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: UKCloudgazer]
      #63599 - Mon Nov 14 2005 10:14 AM

Quote:

Thanks for MM5. Wondered what had happened to it. Stuck on October 24th on the set of 6 models. Will they update it?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/





I noticed that, too.

As to potential T.S. Gamma, obviously not much concensus in the models at this point, either as to track or development. Whatever happened to to the good old days when the late-season Carribean or even Southern GOM storms would get sucked into a diving cold front and peel out to sea at 40 m.p.h. with all convection torn from the center?


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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: lawgator]
      #63600 - Mon Nov 14 2005 11:03 AM

Gamma soon.....
From the NHC

WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO THE
EAST OF THE SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...
THE CONVECTION IS STILL RATHER DEEP AND PERSISTENT... AND IT
APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF FORMING A CURVED BAND THAT COULD
SOON WRAP AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE CYCLONE APPEARS CLOSE TO
BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM... AS SUGGESTED BY Dvorak INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30-35 KT... BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED
AT 30 KT TO WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: lawgator]
      #63601 - Mon Nov 14 2005 11:19 AM

Quote:

Gamma soon.....From the NHC

IT APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF FORMING A CURVED BAND THAT COULD SOON WRAP AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE CYCLONE APPEARS CLOSE TO BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...


Now I believe that is overly optimistic. The shear looks to be above 20kts; I don't see the circ wrapping around even if is clearly banding.

However I do like the way this was put later in the discussion, and agree with this assessment:

IF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO SNEAK TO THE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES AND BECOMES SITUATED BENEATH THE ANTICYCLONE... IT COULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN.

I think that is definitely the key...providing that favorable outflow.

And this as well:

OCEAN TEMPERATURES DO NOT PROVIDE ANY LIMITING FACTOR... SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST HINGES LARGELY ON HOW SHEAR IMPACTS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...ESPECIALLY IF THE CYCLONE ENDS UP DIRECTLY BENEATH THE ANTICYCLONE.

I am not so sold on recurvature later in the week.

* * * * * * * *

Also...anyone looked at the floaters? What's so interesting about NJ?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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