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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2856
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Near Hurricane Alberto Heads toward the Big Bend of Florida - Hurricane Warnings Issued
      #66410 - Mon Jun 12 2006 06:39 AM

2:30PM EDT Update
Find Misc Alberto Information (closings, evacutions, EOC phone numbers, etc.) here

Let us know what the conditions are like in your area here

Added long term animation link and storm surge projeciton map links the lower area of the post.

flhurricane long term radar recording of Alberto

Alberto Related Storm Surge Projections for:

Cedar Key Area
Tampa Bay Area
Appalachicola Area

Apologies for bandwith issues as they happen, we are working to help them, and could use donations to help us move along in that regard to a new coloc facility.

11:50AM EDT
Jason Kelley has updated his blog below for more storm information.

10:35 AM Update - Hurricane Warnings Issued
Hurricane Warnings have been issued for the Florida Gulf coast from Longboat Key (North of Sarasota) northward to the Ochlockonee River (South of Tallahassee) -- This includes the Tampa Bay/St. Pete area., Alberto is not a Hurricane yet, but may be upgraded later. Winds are now at 70MPH, just under Hurricane force.

The official forecast is now calling for a Category 1 hurricane making landfall, with winds of 75MPH at landfall. Alberto has won the war with the shearing.

The air force hurricane hunter plane found the center remofred northeast of where it was before, near the strongest convection, which means it may have some room for more strengthening, thus the hurricane warnings. Pressure has dropped to 997 mb.

Likely the reason the Hurricane Warning extends so far south is because most of the convection remains to the East of the Center.

Storm Surge will be more of an issue as well -- 8 to 10 feet in some areas east of where the system makes landfall. People in the coastal areas need to prepare now, and be prepared for this system. The Gulf coast in the warning area is a shallow shelf, and is very conductive to intensifying the effects of storm surge. If you are immediately along the coast east of the landfall point and in the warning area, I'd suggest leaving.

10:30 AM Update
Unconfirmed reports that Hurricane Warnings will be issued near the big bend area of Florida. From EOC conference....

More to come soon...

Original Update
Tropical Storm Warnings exist from Englewood (south end Between Sarasota and Cape Corlal) norward to Indian pass (Near Port St. Joe east of Panama City Beach). Alberto has organized a bit overnight, and may strengthen a bit more (and since overnight it has gotten more organized, may be a strengthening system as it makes landfall) before making landfall as a Tropical Storm since shear is starting to fade away (note shear still exists), and the fact that its in the Gulf now.

The center is still mostly exposed, so it may keep it from strengthening too rapidly,. the dramatic satellite photo below doesn't tell the whole story. The convection is still mostly to the east of the Storm, even with this blow up this morning. Alberto may have won the overnight round, but it still has another round to go along with the dry air on the northwestern side of the system.



There is also still quite a bit of model divergence in this state of the game, anywhere in the Warning area needs to watch what this system does.

Alberto has woken up this morning, and convection is starting get around the center more, with most of the activity still filling out to the east up through the Florida peninsula, which is covered in Alberto's cloud shield now. Landfall is still expected for the big bend area. West Central Florida will see the most rain most of the day, before Alberto makes landfall.

Because of the coastline at the Gulf, there could still be quite a bit of storm surge even with a Tropical storm, 4-8 feet above normal toward the east of the landfall point. Winds will be moderate, and the threat for isolated small tornadoes will exist for much of the Warning Area. In fact, some have already been reported near Sarasota and in other parts of Western Central Florida.



More to come during the day...

Event Related Links

flhurricane long term radar recording of Alberto

Alberto Related Storm Surge Projections for:

Cedar Key Area
Tampa Bay Area
Appalachicola Area

Radar Imagery:
Talahassee, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar

Cancun Radar
Western tip of Cuba radar

Model; Plots (More at bottom of main page):
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

Alberto:

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Google Map Plot of storm

Animated Model Plot of Alberto
Model Plot of Alberto (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Alberto Heads toward the Big Bend of Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #66413 - Mon Jun 12 2006 06:48 AM

noticed that at buoy 42003 now has sea 19 ft and winds from south.... also noticed when the center moved to the nw west of it... the air temp increased alot since last night at 10... sucking up some warm moist air from carribean... dewpt went up to!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Alberto Heads toward the Big Bend of Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #66414 - Mon Jun 12 2006 06:52 AM

Boy, I go to bed expecting a TD this morning and wow - the convection has exploded and Alberto has grown stronger with the NHC now forecasting a strong tropical storm. Looking at the IR, it looks like the LLC has tucked itself under the SW side of convection and is no longer exposed. If so, there could be a steady strengthening trend unless shear really starts to take over. Not good news for us coastal residents on the Nature Coast. Might have to move some things off the ground floor for coastal flooding tomorrow. Yikes!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

--------------------
RJB

Edited by Ron Basso (Mon Jun 12 2006 06:53 AM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Alberto Heads toward the Big Bend of Florida [Re: Ron Basso]
      #66415 - Mon Jun 12 2006 07:01 AM

looks like to me the center is becoming exposed again..... i think he also has jogged a little bit to the north.... but i think in a few mins when the vis comes up... we should see the edge or the center of alberto

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Jun 12 2006 07:02 AM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Alberto Heads toward the Big Bend of Florida [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #66416 - Mon Jun 12 2006 07:05 AM

Storm Hunter: I think you're reading my mind!
The first visible image to completely show Alberto won't be available for an hour I don't think, and who knows what it will show... shear does appear to be putting up a good fight, even though early this morning Alberto is putting up a bigger fight.
Looking at the overnight visible loop, it looks like the LLC is due south of Pensacola. I think the Big Bend is gonna get alot of rain but the LLC will come onshore closer to Apalachicola.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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vvvteddybearvvv
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 31
Loc: Seminole country, FL 28.64N 81.18W
Re: Alberto Heads toward the Big Bend of Florida [Re: Hugh]
      #66417 - Mon Jun 12 2006 07:06 AM

this thing go a goood night sleep

happy start of the season to ya hugh


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 989
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Alberto Heads toward the Big Bend of Florida [Re: Ron Basso]
      #66418 - Mon Jun 12 2006 07:07 AM

I'm looking at that convection bloom north of the center and not liking it one bit. Good thing it's close to the coast. It looks almost as if it's trying to develop a new center within the convection bloom. Take a look at IR - you can see it doing something in the SW quadrant of the convection bloom. It's got a point that is developing warmer cloud tops surrounded by colder cloud tops, which for a TS isn't expected yet, especially so far from the low pressure center. Waiting for the next recon pass to see if the center has displaced into the convection.

Note: the 85GHz pass was before it started developing this, so I can't check internal structure yet.

20-frame: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get...mp;numframes=20
AVN IR anim: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

--RC

P.S. Don't use what I say for fact. I'm just an amature


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vvvteddybearvvv
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 31
Loc: Seminole country, FL 28.64N 81.18W
Re: Alberto Heads toward the Big Bend of Florida [Re: Random Chaos]
      #66420 - Mon Jun 12 2006 07:11 AM

i am glad the new track has me out of its sight

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Alberto Heads toward the Big Bend of Florida [Re: vvvteddybearvvv]
      #66421 - Mon Jun 12 2006 07:15 AM

recon up and on the way... yeah

URNT11 KNHC 121109
97779 11034 20292 88700 54900 34014 56931 /4587
RMK AF305 0401A ALBERTO OB 01

looks like they just flew off of south pensacola/mobile.. heading southeast on inbound to center

**does anyone know where Af recon is based out of? i was starting to think TAFB, in bay county...... **i plotted worng cord... looks like they are coming out of home base

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Jun 12 2006 07:22 AM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 989
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Alberto Heads toward the Big Bend of Florida [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #66422 - Mon Jun 12 2006 07:22 AM

Just a note on the track: models are still showing a large divergence between them, so if you're anywhere on the FL panhandle or the northern half of the west coast of the penninusla, you're still within the potential track cone.

Here are the tracks:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_01.gif
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/late1.png


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DaViking
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 17
Loc: Crystal River, FL
Re: Alberto Heads toward the Big Bend of Florida [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #66423 - Mon Jun 12 2006 07:22 AM

From what I can tell, It looks like that the center has started to become visible on long range Tampa Bay radar.

Tor - Inglis, FL

--------------------
Lived in Florida 29 years and have never been in a hurricane. I lived in Miami in 1992, but was out of country. Sorry Miami. Then moved north in 1999. again, sorry Miami.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Alberto Heads toward the Big Bend of Florida [Re: DaViking]
      #66424 - Mon Jun 12 2006 07:25 AM

hmm... is that the center... next image should tell the story

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 989
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Alberto Heads toward the Big Bend of Florida [Re: DaViking]
      #66425 - Mon Jun 12 2006 07:27 AM

Tampa Radar, for those without links:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

RIDGE Radar selector, for those that want to be able to get future links yourself:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/

--RC


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stormie1
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3
Loc: Naples, FL
Re: Alberto Heads toward the Big Bend of Florida [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #66426 - Mon Jun 12 2006 07:28 AM

Good morning.
This is my first post. Thanks for the recon data and good info that I am finding here.

I thought it would be good to bring something to share. A good friend of mine set this up for me last cane season, and I've used it since. Updates hourly.

http://weather.ou.edu/~kkloesel/500big.jpg


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Alberto Heads toward the Big Bend of Florida [Re: stormie1]
      #66427 - Mon Jun 12 2006 07:35 AM

URNT11 KNHC 121125
97779 11214 20278 88408 07600 05026 19192 /9762
40525
RMK AF305 0401A ALBERTO OB 02

recon halfway there... appears lowering in alt and they are flying sse. i bet its a pretty flight this morning.... sun coming up.. and they should have a clear flight into the center on the west side they appear to be flying into from....

I think the new headline is SHEAR HAS TAKEN BACK OVER.... Alberto gave a good fight.... i am sure the center is almost completely exposed... waiting on vis!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Alberto Heads toward the Big Bend of Florida [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #66428 - Mon Jun 12 2006 07:43 AM

just thought i should add this.... tropics appear to be heating up now... things will have to be watched


form tlh discussion this morning

THE TROPICS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT AS THE GFS DEPICTS A WWD-MOVING WAVE TRANSITING
THE CARRIBEAN AND REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CUBA BY SUNDAY.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Wingman51
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.41N 81.24W
Re: Alberto Heads toward the Big Bend of Florida [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #66429 - Mon Jun 12 2006 07:45 AM

Ok - - somebody help me out here - - the last few frams of the floater show cloud movement to the west and south - - strongly resembles outflow pattern we all discussed for the last 2 seasons - - would that not indicate a covered eye a little East of shown center of circulation - - just trying to learn here... :?:

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 989
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Alberto Heads toward the Big Bend of Florida [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #66430 - Mon Jun 12 2006 07:46 AM

Quote:

waiting on vis!




Here's vis for you

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get...=4&info=vis

Only have 4 frames since the sun hit it.

Edit: moved center coords of image to closer to the storm center

Edited by Random Chaos (Mon Jun 12 2006 07:47 AM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Alberto Heads toward the Big Bend of Florida [Re: Random Chaos]
      #66431 - Mon Jun 12 2006 07:48 AM

vis shots
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float1_0.html

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Jun 12 2006 07:50 AM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Alberto Heads toward the Big Bend of Florida [Re: Random Chaos]
      #66432 - Mon Jun 12 2006 07:49 AM

Okay, the new (2am) model runs on WU do not please me this morning. NOGAPS (from 8pm last night) puts Alberto into Pensacola. GFDL looks like it puts the *#@! thing in my backyard. None of the 2am models that I've seen put the system where the NHC forecast puts it?

looking at visible loop, looks like the center is still not directly under the nasty stuff.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Mon Jun 12 2006 07:51 AM)


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