MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Update - Monday, 6:30PM
One system, 92L (The caribbean disturbance) fell apart overnight, and is no longer a concern, however a new wave emerged off Africa last night, and now the Cape Verde season is on its way. This system, if it persists, still has a chance for development. But it most likely will become a fish spinner and stay out to sea, as far as lands on our side of the Atlantic are concerned.
However, the area off Florida has spread out, now from the Bahamas up toward northeast. Basically trapped between two lows, this has a better chance to form over the next day or so. It's future track will likely keep it out to sea, but it is close enough to keep a watch on for sure. Some models have it drifting off the coast for days, but most keep it a tropical storm. It may get closer to North Carolina, then back off and stall.
Chance of Off Florida Disturbance (93L) to develop in next 24-48 hours.
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[---------*----------]
Chance of Eastern Atlantic Wave (94L) to Develop over the next 24-48 hours:
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[------*---------------]
Update - Monday, 11AM
There are still two systems to keep an eye on. has dropped the Invest on 92L (Eastern Caribbean) but has added a new Invest 94L just exiting the west African coast. 94L is a strong wave with evidence of a low level circulation. Visible satellite images suggest that the center of circulation may be a bit further northwest of the original estimated position - perhaps near 13N 19W at 14/12Z. Pressure estimated at 1008mb and wind estimated at 30 knots. System should move west or west northwest and almost immediately into an area of moderate but decreasing wind shear. SSTs are around 27.5C - marginal but adequate for additional intensification given the overall structure of the system. Even if strengthening occurs, the system should encounter an area of increasing shear near 45W and weaken again. This one seems to have a better chance for survival - at least for the next few days. This is the same wave that was noted in The Tropics Today Forum a few days ago when the system was over central Africa.
ED
Original Post
Currently, after a few quiet days, there are more areas in the tropics to watch. There is an area area to the east of the Northeastern Florida coast (by about 325 miles) that could develop over the next few days. This system is drifting right now, and likely would move a bit further south. Beyond that it's a bit early to say, it could drift a bit closer and give us some rain along Florida or the Carolinas.
Chance of Off Florida Disturbance (93L) to develop in next 24-48 hours.
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[------*-------------]
The other system is over the Eastern Caribbean, and is moving toward the west, this has a chance to develop over the next few days as well, but it would be slow. If it keeps up with the upper level high pressure, then it could have a better chance later on. However, this is entering a historically bad area for development, so there is equal chance it could disappear as well in a few days. Recon is currently scheduled to investigate this system later.
Chance of Caribbean Disturbance to Develop over the next 24-48 hours:
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[------*---------------]
Neither system is all that impressive currently, but it could change. It is mid August, so chances for development, in general, go up.
More to come later...
Event Related Links
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
(Disturbance Off Florida/aka 93L:)
Animated Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system
(Eastern Atlantic Wave/aka 94L:)
Animated Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system
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ltpat228
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL 27.20N 80.30W
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Jeff Masters is saying there's some thing to watch off the coast of my state, Florida.
What are your thoughts on this...in layman's terms, please. 
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Currently. 9:54 pm EDT...0154Z, Satellites aren't indicating anything to be concerned with.
Heaviest convective areas are North of Barbados, SE Florida, E Central and SE Mississippi, and an area near 35N/ 51W (which should be moving away from the US).
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/jsl-l.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
Jeff Masters is saying there's some thing to watch off the coast of my state, Florida.
What are your thoughts on this...in layman's terms, please.
After reading All of the afternoon Area Forecast Discussions from New Orleans to Jacksonville. All of the NWS Offices are watching the area East of Florida.
As the models are forecasting some type of system to devlop in the next few days.
One model takes the "system" to the north.
While most of the remaining models take the "system" to the west and south over Florida. (Region of Florida under the system varies with the models.)
And into the GOM moving slowly westward. the level of "system" development ranges from a:
TUTT Low, now present N of Hispaniola,
a Hybrid system (Hank and Clark's area of expertise)
a split system, with the Lower Level moving North and the Mid Level moving South and West.
Until the newer Model Runs are out. You probably have a 50-50 chance of rain over the Florida Peninsula for the next few days. The Southern Half of the Peninsula is getting some of that rain now.
Scott, I see you online. What's your take?
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Just a quickand importantside note....Lokking on Satellite, the area east of FLorida is maybe inching south. The states a future stationary movement, and the models show a "radial spread" of options (i.e. all directions). Typically when the models show this spread, the system will remain relatively stationary for the mid term according toTPC previous experience. Hence, the Outlook is calling for stationary and the models do not truely indicate movement in any particular direction. Of course, development is not a given either way either.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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The Area Forecast Discussion in Central Florida this morning is saying that there is a drying air effect north of the watervapor loop across southern florida regions and an ULL expected to cross over on Wednesday. Given this information, it does not sound like Florida Peninsula will be effected anytime soon with any more than the afternoon pop ups, if that. I guess we are lucky to have a magnet in reverse sending storms away rather than attracting them this season. I just hope it will let us have our afternoon heat breaking showers.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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I just finished looking at some loops....Water Vapor shows some dry air to 93L's west, but it also looks like that dry air is receding to the west, allowing some t-storms to fire up to the south of where 93L is .... I stared at those loops for a while and I really don't see any movement of the the LLC.
Of course, that's just what I'm seeing.  Whatever it is, it isn't very organized.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Black Pearl
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 32
Loc: Mobile Bay
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Floater 2 is on the system off the Florida coast. 
Tropical Floater 2
Edited by Black Pearl (Mon Aug 14 2006 09:37 AM)
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
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we have 94L off the African coast! winds assoiated with it are already at 35 mph and it has impressive convection so far and a well defined mid-level circulation. It'll have to be watched along with the new low not too far from Vero Beach, FL.
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W.D. Duncan
Edited by nc_tropical_wx79 (Mon Aug 14 2006 10:47 AM)
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Nateball
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 40
Loc: Tarpon Springs FL
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Wow I was just looking at that wave 94L this thing is a monster, to me it looks like the strongest wave to come off of africa all summer. Something we need to keep an eye on.
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
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Storms forming east (actually, usually SE) of the Cape Verde Islands have proven quite interesting in recent years; several strong, long-trackers, although thankfully they usually curve and die (or undergo transition) in the Central Atlantic. Some recent examples (and hopefully my facts are not too far off here):
2004: Danielle (August 13 - almost exactly 2 years ago) survived 10 or 11 days and peaked at approximately 95 kt
2000: Alberto (August 3) survived approximately 20 days (longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone to form in August), reaching hurricane strength 3 times (i.e., after weakening twice), and peaked at 110 kt
2000: Isaac (Sept. 21) survived approximately 10 days and peaked at 120 kt
1999: Cindy (Aug. 19) survived approximately 12 days, peaked at 120 kt, and came within approximately 325 nautical miles of Bermuda
1998: Jeanne (Sept. 21) survived approximately 10 days, peaking at 90 kt
-Brad
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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First look I've taken in a day and a half or so. We may be back in business soon.
92L is still oriented so that the actual surface turning (maybe a trough now) is under northerly shear, while whatever convection is bursting is just a short distance ahead under its tandem anticyclone. not the first time this year i've seen a system fail because an upper low is chasing it with northerly shear. the trades seem to push just hard enough to keep any potential system in trouble. low confidence on the caribbean feature.
93L is a different story. it is hanging on the tail of a deep trough, that is splitting with a piece of upper energy set to tail back into the gulf... leaving some weak ridging to the north and a weak sort of anticyclonic environment aloft. the big deal today is that the thing has started focusing further west, just northeast of the bahamas. masters said something the other day that made perfect sense... if it develops further west, it's more of a threat to land (i.e., the influence of the ridge would be stronger, adding a westward component to the track). right now i'd expect scott's earlier analysis... that it can develop during the next 24-36 hours or so... to be the right path. hard to say exactly about track.. it's in sort of a col with variable strengths of steering wind with height.. a weak system would likely meander, with progressively stronger systems tracking first NW and then WNW and W. if a middle of the road type evolution takes place... probably more of a threat to florida and maybe georgia. don't think it would come this far north. if it tracks more north, might stall again and drift some. more to the south.. probably across florida, then gulfside.
94L... not a big deal. it's the impressive wave of the day. environmental conditions ahead are somewhat hostile, and it really doesn't have much time to organize. the wave as a whole may be interesting to watch, but if it develops early it'll probably just work its way so far northwest that it dies... if the wave remains well-defined several days further west it may be more of an interest.
that's a best early guess based on older model runs. i'll look at some newer stuff and update it if things have changed.
HF 1649z14august
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HurryCaneForm
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 50
Loc: Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON AUG 14 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED FROM JUST NORTH OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THR ATLANTIC
FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. A NEW CIRCULATION CENTER IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...WHILE THE ONE FARTHER TO
THE NORTHEAST IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.
A VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND HEAVY SQUALLS BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH
THIS SYSTEM TODAY. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TOMORROW. INTERESTS NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
Seems that 94L has flared up some good convection off the coast of Africa. It caught my eye looking at the satellite imagery.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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The system is slightly better organized then 12 hrs ago.....2 areas of lower pressures...but no dominate 1.....models still want the system further ENE...and I wouldnt be surprised if it does take over....nonetheless...it should get better organized tonight into tomorrow..and I would say there is slightly better then 50-50chance of this being a TD if not Debby later in the day Tuesday.... for now...only thing that can hamper this is the struggle between the 2 weak lows.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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93L looks better than it did this morning; I believe just said a recon is (tentavely) scheduled to go out tomorrow.
94L is definitely impressive! Our local met just mentioned it and said that sometimes when these big storms come off the coast of Africa they tend to fall apart + there is some dry air ahead of it. However, that could change. I hope this one becomes a fish spinner. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Regarding 94L, it's been my observation that these Lows which roll off the tip of Africa usually just fall apart long before ever having a real chance to become a depression. In fact, I believe the number that go on to TC is roughly just 13%. Even with that qualifier, the best I can tell - 94L is on the verge of being a TD, if it isn't already. With all of the tropical weather investigating going on this season out in the Cape Verdes, it will be fascinating to eventually read what they may have learned about and from 94L.
To me, 93L also looks like it could easily come together within 24 hours. Especially that newer center forming closer to Florida. Much better presentation this afternoon, as you say.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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The center that is trying to form is near 28N and 75W......the weak low just east of florida has become embeded with the trough and the main low center forming.
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Scott's post has the right idea folks. During the morning hours, the low moving south was quite apparent..into the midday hours, there appeared to be that low and another to the ENE that was evident from time to time. As the afternoon progressed, the general appearance has been that these two lows evolved into a broad elongated low pressure trough. Just about where Scott mentioned is a bout the middle of that area and is the place where I'd expect something has the best shot at consolidation. Maybe just a tad SW of there, but pretty close.
As for motion, I things Jeff Master's did an excellent job of breaking down the possibilities from what I read around 9:00AM. It's really to early for me to try and speculate where this may end up by looking at the models. Apparently, it's something that's gonna be around to watch for a few days though.
Edited by dem05 (Mon Aug 14 2006 06:18 PM)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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The latest model runs (from the front page) are interesting. Earlier this morning, they reminded me of a daddy long legs (minus 4 legs  ); now, they remind me of the model runs for Jeanne...a loop de loop. Let's hope the model runs for 94L stay the same as they are now.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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amonty
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
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After looking at the last visual shots of the day it appears that 93L is mostly Upper Level. There doesn't appear to be much at the lower or mid levels. Save for a recent small burst to the south. It would probably take advantage of strengthening tonight since it's structure would support it. I'd say almost a TD by morning. As for direction it's probably too early to speculate but a very slow NW track is my best guess. 
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