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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1398
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: BillD]
      #72593 - Tue Aug 29 2006 06:16 PM

Here is the Key West NWS Radar:

Key West Radar

I believe that the center is south of Marathon Key and ESE of Key West...so it looks like the storm will be crossing right in the middle of the Keys.

I don't believe it is beginning to make landfall as of yet.

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL 25.77N 80.19W
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #72594 - Tue Aug 29 2006 06:20 PM

Colleen, speaking of radar....

http://www.stormpredator.com/about.htm

Kinda off topic, but not quite. I just installed this program on my Mac (through Parallels, of course) to track the Key West radar, and this program is amazing! It's great for those of you that don't have access to more advanced software. It automatically updates the loops for you, and you can even track and predict the movement of the cells in WSD-88 radar images.

Check it out!

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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: Colleen A.]
      #72596 - Tue Aug 29 2006 06:30 PM

did the center look like it almost "jumped" north in the last few frames??

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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #72597 - Tue Aug 29 2006 06:31 PM

Looking at the Miami radar, for what that is worth, I see a turn to the north. Ernesto might not even make landfall, and turn early? We'll see. Regardless the turn northward has started.

Current band over Miami looked to be heavy duty as it rotated in, but it fizzled out where I am (South Miami). Lots of rain, but not much wind.

Bill


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Fireform
Unregistered




Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: Colleen A.]
      #72598 - Tue Aug 29 2006 06:31 PM

From far south Dade county, this isn't that bad. Some gusts and heavy rain. No limbs down yet.

The radar now makes it look like the center is moving much more wnw than nw, and trying to form a new, small eye. Hopefully this is a brief aberration, not a new trend.


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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL 25.77N 80.19W
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: andy1tom]
      #72599 - Tue Aug 29 2006 06:35 PM

Quote:

did the center look like it almost "jumped" north in the last few frames??




It does look like the center has gone a bit to the north. I suspect that if you watch TV you'll get the meteorologists going crazy about this, and all of them will want to talk to Max Mayfield or Knabb about it.

Also, the center is much more clearly defined in the last 30 minutes as well..

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: Fireform]
      #72600 - Tue Aug 29 2006 06:36 PM

Ahh, Ernesto the pesto. I think what we have here is a best case scenario. Very weak system. Need some rain. Cuba needed some rain. Probably just a small step above afternoon T-storms in that it will last a while. I thinik the NHC track looks pretty solid, only worry would be if it stays to the right of the track. That may give Ernesto a chance to reach hurricane before it hits the Carolinas. I suspect this will be a bigger problem in the mid-Atlantic states then anything in Florida.

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Jim


Edited by Rasvar (Tue Aug 29 2006 06:37 PM)


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furkidsmom
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 12
Loc: Satellite Beach, FL
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: Rasvar]
      #72601 - Tue Aug 29 2006 06:44 PM

I think Ernesto the Pesto (I love that name!) is really going to be a problem for the Carolinas. I'm expecting a lot of rain tomorrow and wind, but nothing worse than that.

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Ginger
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 8
Loc: Gainesville FL
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: furkidsmom]
      #72607 - Tue Aug 29 2006 06:55 PM

Is this a giant eye opening up in the center??

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/vis-l.jpg

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Florida Native


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: Ginger]
      #72608 - Tue Aug 29 2006 06:59 PM

If you are refering to the hole down closer to Cuba then Florida, no. That is just an area of clearing on the outskirts of the storm. Center is filled in still

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Jim


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Ginger
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 8
Loc: Gainesville FL
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: Rasvar]
      #72609 - Tue Aug 29 2006 07:03 PM

No, not the hole, but that circle just below the middle Keys. But I did see on the IR it shows up as red, so is it just a circular cluster of heavy rain?

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Florida Native


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Chris Bryant
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 17
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: Ginger]
      #72626 - Tue Aug 29 2006 07:58 PM

I've got to chime in here- watching the evolution of Ernesto, as in past years, I am amazed at the skill of the NHC forecasters. The huge shift in the forecast track for the Fl panhandle to the peninsula was gutsy, yet spot on.
They really do seem to have the right blend of art and science....

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--
Chris Bryant
DeLand, Florida


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