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Tropical Depression Two in unfavorible conditions, likely to fall apart or dissipate tomorrow.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 19 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3194 (8 y 8 m) (Wilma)
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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 2912
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Ernesto Over Water
      #72285 - Tue Aug 29 2006 07:18 AM

Ernesto has left Cuba, and strengthened a tad as it has entered very warm water, shear conditions will relax and give the storm a chance to strengthen a bit before landfall. It is likely to be a strengthening system as it crosses the middle to upper Keys and nter south Florida, it is forecast to move through the gut middle of the state and exit through the northeastern Florida coast. It still has a small chance to become a hurricane before landfall, it all depends on how quickly it does or does not get organized now that it is over water. Watch this one today for any surprises.



Most likely, however, it will be a mid to high end tropical storm when it makes landfall. After leaving Florida Ernesto has a chance to make a second landfall in the Carolina, possibly as a hurricane there as well.

Therefore, Tropical Storm Warnings are up on the West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach southward, including all the keys, then up on the eastern coastline now to New Smyrna Beach. Also hurricane watches remain up for the east coast of Florida to New Smyrna Beach.

Inland Tropical Storm Warning also exist for most of the inland counties in the middle of Floida.

The track is pretty solid now. What we are watching is the forward speed and the intensity of the system as it makes landfall.

More to come during the day.

Do you know of evacuations or closures for schools, business, shelters, ports, governments, etc? Let everyone know here

Report Ernesto related weather conditions /damage in your area here

Looking for someone? Have Travel plans somewhere affected by Ernesto? Ask here.

To keep things less cluttered, any of these asked on the main board will be moved/graveyarded. So use the above links please.

Also, flhurricane is now making a Long Term radar recording of Ernesto.


Beyond Ernesto, there is a strong wave in the eastern Atlantic that has a chance to become a depression in the next few days.

Event Related Links

Cuban Radar near Ernesto
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations

Recon Report Map Plot
Guantanamo Bay Radar

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Jacksonville, FL Long Range Radar
Talahassee, FL Long Range Radar Loop

Emergency Management/County info
East Coast Florida Coutny Websites (South to North along the East Coast)
Miami-Date County, FL
Broward County, FL (Ft. Lauderdale)
Palm Beach County, FL
Martin County, FL
St. Lucie County, FL
Indian River County, FL (Vero Beach)
Brevard County, FL
Volusia County, FL (Daytona Beach)
Flagler County, FL
St. Johns County, FL (St. Augustine)
Duval County, FL (Jacksonville)
[Nassau County, FL


West Coast Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL (Naples)
Lee County, FL (Ft. Myers)
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL (St. Petersburg)
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa)
Paso County, FL
Hernando County, FL
Citrus County, FL
Levy County, FL

Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,
Miami, Key West,
Jacksonville,
Melbourne
Tallahassee

"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
St. Petersburg Times (Tampabay.com)
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Palm Beach Post
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)

Storm Animation of what a storm passing just north of Tampa would do to Tampa Bay


Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)

Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will be doing his live audio show Monday - Wednesday every night as Ernesto approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.

Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is usually on the road heading toward the storms to provide reports and video and data from the storms. see some of his live streaming video and audio here

Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob

Reply and let us know of other links.



Ernesto

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on Ernesto from Jonathan Vigh's page
Google Map Plot of Ernesto
RAMSDIS storm relative satelliteloop
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of Ernesto


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2912
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: MikeC]
      #72295 - Tue Aug 29 2006 07:38 AM

Just a note to everyone:

To keep things less cluttered we are using subforums:

o Do you know of evacuations or closures for schools, business, shelters, ports, governments, etc? Let everyone know here

o Report Ernesto related weather conditions /damage in your area here

o Looking for someone? Have Travel plans somewhere affected by Ernesto? Ask here.

To keep things less cluttered, any of these asked on the main board will be moved or graveyarded. So use the above links please.

Also, flhurricane is now making a Long Term radar recording of Ernesto.


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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 66
Loc: 28.33N 80.69W
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: MikeC]
      #72303 - Tue Aug 29 2006 08:04 AM

Ernie may not look pretty, but if you look at the radar out of miami
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
He has some rotation going on, so he's not just a floating blob of clouds
So with it over the warm water of the gulf stream, it has a chance to regenerate a bit

(I think)


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D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 48
Loc: The Burg < FL
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: engicedave]
      #72304 - Tue Aug 29 2006 08:14 AM

i think the forcast path will change @ the 11am update ... seems to be goin wnw still and that cold front the suposed to push it n then ne east doesnt look like its going to be here in time to move it up the spine of florida .. if you look @ the GOM WV doesnt look like the cold front is here yet to move erinie... ? (my 2cents)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html


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Ronn
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 111
Loc: Beckley, WV
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: MikeC]
      #72306 - Tue Aug 29 2006 08:17 AM

I think it is very likely that the 11am forecast track will shift a bit to the west. It is apparent to me that Ernesto has been moving more WNW this morning, and there is not nearly enough of a northward component to bring this ashore along the SE Florida coast. I suspect that Ernesto will cross the middle Keys and make landfall somewhere along the SW coast. The 06Z GFDL run reflects this reasoning. This also means that there is a slightly longer window for strengthening, and we might see a Cat 1 at landfall.

--------------------
Ronn Raszetnik - Hazards Geographer


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Beavis
Unregistered




Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: Ronn]
      #72307 - Tue Aug 29 2006 08:25 AM

They Key West radar shows a definite westward movement. It does't look like this thing turning north.

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amonty
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: engicedave]
      #72308 - Tue Aug 29 2006 08:25 AM

What do you think?
What will the wind intensity be at next landfall?
You may choose only one
40-50 KTS
50-60 KTS
60-70 KTS
80-90 KTS


Votes accepted from (Tue Aug 29 2006 08:23 AM) to (No end specified)
View the results of this poll



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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL 25.77N 80.19W
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: Beavis]
      #72310 - Tue Aug 29 2006 08:30 AM

Quote:

They Key West radar shows a definite westward movement. It does't look like this thing turning north.




I think people are misinterpreting the COC on radar. It's actually just south of the radar's edge, and you can tell its moving WNW-NW this morning. I'll post an image in one second..

--------------------
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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 66
Loc: 28.33N 80.69W
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #72311 - Tue Aug 29 2006 08:33 AM

I agree.
Confusing rotation with COC movement


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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL 25.77N 80.19W
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: engicedave]
      #72312 - Tue Aug 29 2006 08:34 AM



I think this goes to show that we are underestimating the potential for redevelopment a bit, as well. Ernesto still has a lot of very warm water to cover before landfall, as it just came off the Cuban coastline. I think we may still have the potential for hurricane force winds in a small area in Florida, and that is why people should be preparing, and not shrugging this thing off.

--------------------
MyHurricane - Forecast models, wind radii, latest watches and warnings and more
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #72313 - Tue Aug 29 2006 08:34 AM

This is some interesting Data on a storm named Donna that occurred in 1960.
Donna was in this same general area and here were her coordinates at the time:
1:00 PM 23.7N 79.4W 145MPH 939mb 310 at 9MPH .
Now the point is not how strong Donna was, the point is that this area can sustain a hurricane of that strength. The coordinates are not very different than the ones located to the left of this post.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 66
Loc: 28.33N 80.69W
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #72315 - Tue Aug 29 2006 08:40 AM

Local news here in Miami is saying the water between Ernie and SoFla is 86o

That'll help it along I'm sure


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Ronn
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 111
Loc: Beckley, WV
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #72317 - Tue Aug 29 2006 08:42 AM

Quote:

I think people are misinterpreting the COC on radar. It's actually just south of the radar's edge, and you can tell its moving WNW-NW this morning. I'll post an image in one second..




I agree with your center fix, but it still appears that movement has been WNW for several hours. The main area of convection north of the COC is overwhelmingly moving off toward the west, indicating to me that the northward turn is not incipient.

--------------------
Ronn Raszetnik - Hazards Geographer


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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL 25.77N 80.19W
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: Ronn]
      #72318 - Tue Aug 29 2006 08:46 AM

Quote:

Quote:

I think people are misinterpreting the COC on radar. It's actually just south of the radar's edge, and you can tell its moving WNW-NW this morning. I'll post an image in one second..




I agree with your center fix, but it still appears that movement has been WNW for several hours. The main area of convection north of the COC is overwhelmingly moving off toward the west, indicating to me that the northward turn is not incipient.




That's classic with storms because of upperlevel winds. As it restrengthens, it will bring the CDC back over the center, but we need to focus on the center. It had been moving WNW, but I think it's started moving NW again in the last few frames on Key West LR radar.

--------------------
MyHurricane - Forecast models, wind radii, latest watches and warnings and more
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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL 25.77N 80.19W
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #72319 - Tue Aug 29 2006 08:56 AM

Also, I want to just place this thought in people's minds. When Ernesto makes landfall, the tropical storm winds may feel more like hurricane winds at time because of the gusts. You can add the forward speed of Ernesto to the maximum sustained winds to get the gusts.

--------------------
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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #72320 - Tue Aug 29 2006 09:04 AM

Please remember that the maximum winds are not around the center..only in well formed storms and hurricanes...the peak winds on the vortex are occuring in the convection 55 miles from the center...the center of this storm is not where the greatest winds will be felt....at least not with the present structure

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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bradentonJas
Unregistered




Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: pcola]
      #72322 - Tue Aug 29 2006 09:08 AM

Looking at the latest track...anybody else think Ernie might enter the gulf and ride the sw coastline up and then cross florida? He is a land lover. I just dont see it grinding up the middle....thoughts?

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 820
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #72323 - Tue Aug 29 2006 09:10 AM

I am interested in the dynamic that is being touted to turn the system to the north...in the NW Gulf a vigorous ULL seems to be affecting the southern aspect of the trough that is moving into the SE today and is the mechanism predicted to break down the ridge and allow the weakness to pull Ernesto to the N and then NE...
As of now that area seems to be setting up in the Ft. Walton Beach area and the upper flow ahead of Ernesto is SE-NW'd for some distance...
I just wonder of that ULL dynamic in the NW Gulf will keep the high from being eroded on its southern aspect enough in time to allow the turn as currently forcast?...I have some doubts on this.
Any one care to comment?

--------------------
doug


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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 90
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: MikeC]
      #72324 - Tue Aug 29 2006 09:22 AM

if you take a step back and look at the wider visible loop you can see it is getting a little bit more classic look to it. Dr. Knabb from the NHC has said that the center is still moving in a NW motion but not to necessarily focus on the center because much of the bad weather extends north and east of it. It still would not surprise me if this got close to hurricane strength. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Upper Levels [Re: doug]
      #72325 - Tue Aug 29 2006 09:25 AM

I've been looking at the upper levels also.
From 0615Z to 1215Z, it appears that the ULL over the Western GOM is slightly modifying the front over N Louisiana.
The WV Loop shows that between those times the front basically had No Eastward movement at the AR/ LA/ MS border. It looks like it might have even backed northward a bit over the TX/ LA border near Toledo Bend Lake.
Over TN/ KY very little motion there also. And the western portion of NC seems to have cleared out a bit on the WV imagery.

I'm not sure at this point if the ULLs in combo are responsible for this or if Ernesto is adding to their mix.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus.html

I did notice that 5 of the models are still on the West side of the FL Peninsula. With 2 going ashore near Punta Gordo, and the remaining 3 going ashore between Punta Gordo and Cedar Key.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/index.htm

Another interesting note from that site , is that the SHIPS Intensity modle take Ernesto to Cat 2 level at 84 hours...where ever It might be.


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