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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4360
Loc: Orlando, FL
Ernesto Over Mainland Florida
      #72742 - Wed Aug 30 2006 07:09 AM

Ernesto has made landfall twice, once in the Keys near islamorada, and another time along mainland Monroe county. It is moving generally toward the north northwest and will continue along the route and eventually turn northeastward later today. The center is around 45 miles west of Miami.

It will cause fair amounts of rain, but overall will not be a too serious event for the state.



Pressures have gone down a bit, but the storm itself has not strengthened all that much. It will likely either hold onto tropical storm strength (because of rainbands) or become a depression during the day, possibly reintensifying when it emerges over the Atlantic.



Mosty a rainmaker (and not a really great one at that), and gusts of around 30mph will be felt in Central Florida.

Do you know of evacuations or closures for schools, business, shelters, ports, governments, etc? Let everyone know here

Report Ernesto related weather conditions /damage in your area here

Looking for someone? Have Travel plans somewhere affected by Ernesto? Ask here.

To keep things less cluttered, any of these asked on the main board will be moved/graveyarded. So use the above links please.

Also, flhurricane is now making a Long Term radar recording of Ernesto and a Level 3 radar recording of Ernesto.


Beyond Ernesto, there is a strong wave in the eastern Atlantic that has a chance to become a depression in the next few days.

Event Related Links

Cuban Radar near Ernesto
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations

Recon Report Map Plot
Guantanamo Bay Radar

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Jacksonville, FL Long Range Radar
Talahassee, FL Long Range Radar Loop

Emergency Management/County info
East Coast Florida Coutny Websites (South to North along the East Coast)
Miami-Date County, FL
Broward County, FL (Ft. Lauderdale)
Palm Beach County, FL
Martin County, FL
St. Lucie County, FL
Indian River County, FL (Vero Beach)
Brevard County, FL
Volusia County, FL (Daytona Beach)
Flagler County, FL
St. Johns County, FL (St. Augustine)
Duval County, FL (Jacksonville)
[Nassau County, FL


West Coast Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL (Naples)
Lee County, FL (Ft. Myers)
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL (St. Petersburg)
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa)
Paso County, FL
Hernando County, FL
Citrus County, FL
Levy County, FL

Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,
Miami, Key West,
Jacksonville,
Melbourne
Tallahassee

"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
St. Petersburg Times (Tampabay.com)
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Palm Beach Post
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)

Storm Animation of what a storm passing just north of Tampa would do to Tampa Bay


Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)

Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will be doing his live audio show Monday - Wednesday every night as Ernesto approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.

Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is usually on the road heading toward the storms to provide reports and video and data from the storms. see some of his live streaming video and audio here

Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob

Reply and let us know of other links.

Ernesto

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on Ernesto from Jonathan Vigh's page
Google Map Plot of Ernesto
RAMSDIS storm relative satelliteloop
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of Ernesto


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 405
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #72743 - Wed Aug 30 2006 07:10 AM

He looks like he is directly southeast of Everglades City.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4360
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #72747 - Wed Aug 30 2006 07:17 AM

Quote:

He looks like he is directly southeast of Everglades City.




That's a strong band to the west. This storm has done more to stealth out the center than most, but

is the real position of the center. It's just not very organized.

Note: We are moving posts for this that are in the wrong spot:

Report storm related weather conditions /damage in your area here


Edited by MikeC (Wed Aug 30 2006 07:44 AM)


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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #72753 - Wed Aug 30 2006 07:49 AM

Amazing how the pressure dropped over land. Must be the Wilma syndrome. SST's in the everglades are high in shallow water so it's keeping him up. I think easterly shear kept him in check till landfall. Maybe, but I doubt it, that the cat4 hurricane hugging Mexico took some energy out of Ernesto. Sure seems more of a El Nino year even though it's not officially. Everyone be prepared this ain't the last.

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Psyber
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 208
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida [Re: HURRICANELONNY]
      #72758 - Wed Aug 30 2006 08:49 AM

Quote:

Amazing how the pressure dropped over land. Must be the Wilma syndrome. SST's in the everglades are high in shallow water so it's keeping him up. I think easterly shear kept him in check till landfall. Maybe, but I doubt it, that the cat4 hurricane hugging Mexico took some energy out of Ernesto. Sure seems more of a El Nino year even though it's not officially. Everyone be prepared this ain't the last.




Wilma went all the way up to a CAT5, I fail to see how its anything like Ernesto.

As for the pressure drop it was pretty minimal. He was still over better than dry land and starting to strengthen a bit so that probably explains it.

I see from the NHC track that he's going to coming to my area around sunday. I live in the great lakes basin so we should get a CRAPLOAD of rain from it. Hopefully he doesn't slow down.


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g-50cab
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 4
Loc: St. Pete
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida [Re: HURRICANELONNY]
      #72759 - Wed Aug 30 2006 08:49 AM

Very interesting movement of this storm - I guess that;s one reason you should look at longer term info, I swear it looked like it was moving due west for a while there, then seemed to pull north. Rain/nonevent.

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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida [Re: HURRICANELONNY]
      #72760 - Wed Aug 30 2006 08:52 AM

I think it's important to point out that we aren't out of the woods yet in South Florida, folks. People need to keep off the roads today, if possible. There are tell several high velocity thunderstorms with winds in excess of 40mph and higher gusts. These can bump and shake high profile trucks!

The southwest FL coast can keep expecting heavy thunderstorms for the next 3-4 hours at least. Southeast FL is relatively clear now except for some high wind gusts and spotty showers, but once Ernesto moves north a bit, those showers currently offshore will wrap around the center and come onshore with some force. I'd give it a couple of hours, maybe three. Again, staying inside today and making it a "watch TV, eat snacks, read a book" day.

Keep in mind that most tropical cyclone-related death happen after the storm. Watch out for any downed trees, powerlines, etc. Keep off the roads as driving in high winds is dangerous. You all know the drill.... just spread the word because you know that now that the media has nothing to talk about they'll go back to national news and ignore the conditions still around.

Stay safe!

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LisaC
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 39
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #72761 - Wed Aug 30 2006 08:59 AM

Quote:

I think it's important to point out that we aren't out of the woods yet in South Florida, folks. People need to keep off the roads today, if possible. There are tell several high velocity thunderstorms with winds in excess of 40mph and higher gusts. These can bump and shake high profile trucks!

The southwest FL coast can keep expecting heavy thunderstorms for the next 3-4 hours at least. Southeast FL is relatively clear now except for some high wind gusts and spotty showers, but once Ernesto moves north a bit, those showers currently offshore will wrap around the center and come onshore with some force. I'd give it a couple of hours, maybe three. Again, staying inside today and making it a "watch TV, eat snacks, read a book" day.

Keep in mind that most tropical cyclone-related death happen after the storm. Watch out for any downed trees, powerlines, etc. Keep off the roads as driving in high winds is dangerous. You all know the drill.... just spread the word because you know that now that the media has nothing to talk about they'll go back to national news and ignore the conditions still around.

Stay safe!




Josh looking at the radar I agree with you. I came into the office after calling the hotline and realized we were open, I am surprised many employers didn't hold off until this afternoon to bring folks back in to the office. My car was swaying from side to side on 595 this morning.



Edited by LisaC (Wed Aug 30 2006 09:00 AM)


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida [Re: Psyber]
      #72762 - Wed Aug 30 2006 09:10 AM

Quote:

Quote:

Amazing how the pressure dropped over land. Must be the Wilma syndrome. SST's in the everglades are high in shallow water so it's keeping him up. I think easterly shear kept him in check till landfall. Maybe, but I doubt it, that the cat4 hurricane hugging Mexico took some energy out of Ernesto. Sure seems more of a El Nino year even though it's not officially. Everyone be prepared this ain't the last.




Wilma went all the way up to a CAT5, I fail to see how its anything like Ernesto.

As for the pressure drop it was pretty minimal. He was still over better than dry land and starting to strengthen a bit so that probably explains it.

I see from the NHC track that he's going to coming to my area around sunday. I live in the great lakes basin so we should get a CRAPLOAD of rain from it. Hopefully he doesn't slow down.




I think what Lonny meant by the Wilma syndrome was the fact that Wilma came ashore on the SW FL coast as a Cat 2 (if I'm remembering correctly) expected to weaken but in fact maintained her strength crossing the state and before the eyewall completely exited the coastline approached Cat 3 status. The northern portion of the eyewall passed over us here in martin county and we didn't lose power until the back side of the eywall hit us where winds were significantly stronger as the eye started moving offshore.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida [Re: LisaC]
      #72763 - Wed Aug 30 2006 09:12 AM

Looks like the rain coverage is expanding, which I guess means a larger circulation. Anyone have any idea what impact that will have on redevelopment when it gets back over water...help or hinder it?

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida [Re: LisaC]
      #72764 - Wed Aug 30 2006 09:14 AM

Quote:

Josh looking at the radar I agree with you. I came into the office after calling the hotline and realized we were open, I am surprised many employers didn't hold off until this afternoon to bring folks back in to the office. My car was swaying from side to side on 595 this morning.




Well, LisaC, unfortunately the county officials aren't the best weather forecasters (I have firsthand knowledge of this as I've been to the Broward EOC and have overheard some of their conversations quite frightening) and they don't make the best weather-based decisions.

I do wonder, though, if they have resumed normal bus schedules, because many, many people in our county (Broward) rely on public transportation to get to and from work. As I said before, it may look okay now, but once the heavy thunderstorms start to get into the area things will be quite a bit different,. Those squalls probably have close to 60mph wind gusts (as you would expect with a severe thunderstorm on any given day).

All in all, it is important to make the personal decision to probably stay in the house today.

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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida [Re: Ed in Va]
      #72765 - Wed Aug 30 2006 09:16 AM

Quote:

Looks like the rain coverage is expanding, which I guess means a larger circulation. Anyone have any idea what impact that will have on redevelopment when it gets back over water...help or hinder it?




One could presume that the low level center of the storm won't weaken too much as it crosses land at a measureable speed today. Once it re-emerges over water, though, it will have sped up considerably, I'm sure, so it won't have as much time to restrengthen. You could almost say it'll be like it was from Cuba -> Florida.

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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida [Re: LisaC]
      #72766 - Wed Aug 30 2006 09:20 AM

IDepending on how these bands set up later we could see some huge rain totals especially the way Ernesto is creeping along.

http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/Loa...mp;prodnav=none

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Aug 30 2006 01:33 PM)


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #72767 - Wed Aug 30 2006 09:25 AM

We really haven't had much in Delray today. Maybe a 15 mph wind and some light rain. Using my pool as an indicator, I'd say we had less than 1/2" rain.

We opened the office first thing this morning, but our policy is to let people use their own judgement. I see restaurants opening now and the roads are getting more crowded.

Max Mayfield had a great comment:

``As a homeowner, I'm very happy,'' said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center. ``As a forecaster, I'm not very happy.''


Edited by Lee-Delray (Wed Aug 30 2006 09:31 AM)


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 408
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #72770 - Wed Aug 30 2006 10:01 AM

Got up this AM to way more wind then yesterday! Currently it's gusting to 40 mph. A quick check of local weather stations indicates the pressure is still falling in NW Broward, it seems Ernesto slowed down (from 14 to 8 mph) so he is not done yet. He is currently located in the middle of Everglades somewhere between US41 Tamiami Trail and I-75 Alligator Alley. For businesses that decided to stay closed today that turned out to be a good call cause it's kind of sloppy with stiff breeze out there right now. Looking at the radar it's dry to the east but to the south there is still alot of moisture that Ernesto will drag up the coast through out the day. Last night all the local mets indicated the "worst is over" now for the Keys that's ture, but for the Dade / Broward / Palm Beach area it appears today is going to be more "tropical" then yesterday.

Appears the offical (mainland) landfall was just east of Flamingo in Everglades National Park, it never did drift west enough to reach the Marco Island / Naples area after all.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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amonty
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida [Re: Ed in Va]
      #72771 - Wed Aug 30 2006 10:05 AM

From the 5 am disco:

FRICTIONAL EFFECTS CAUSED BY THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL LIKELY TIGHTEN UP AND IMPROVE THE OVERALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF Ernesto TODAY...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR Ernesto TO RE-STRENGTHEN ONCE IT IS BACK OVER WATER. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT Ernesto COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH JUST BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL AGAIN.

So to reiterate the LLC and windfield are going to shrink which is going to help him once he hits water again. I'd say that could happen the first hour he hits water. So Brevard and Volusia counties are in for some nasty weather yet as the rain bands whip them during the first stage of re-strengthening. Although who's to say that won't even happen. He was supposed to strenghten in the straits yesterday and lastnight but that didn't happen.


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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #72773 - Wed Aug 30 2006 10:09 AM

For those of you who are rather upset or disappointed with the NHC's forecast accuracy for Ernesto, I'd like to ask that you take a look at this report from the NHC on forecast verifcation for the 2005 year:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/Verification_2005.pdf

In summary, you should take a look at these paragraphs from the top of the report:

Quote:


"A verification of NHC official forecasts and model guidance for the 2005 hurricane seasons in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins is presented. Forecast accuracy of official track forecasts was close to the record levels set in 2004 for the Atlantic and established new records for accuracy in the eastern Pacific. The official track forecasts consistently beat the dynamical guidance and also surpassed much of the consensus guidance. Intensity forecasts were of similar accuracy to those in previous years.

In both basins, the GUNA consensus provided the most accurate track guidance. Among the individual track guidance models, the GFDL provided the best shorter-range track forecasts in both basins. At the longer ranges, the UKMET and BAMM were strong performers in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific, respectively. For intensity, the statistical SHIPS and DSHP continue to lead the dynamical models, although even better results can be obtained from a DSHP/GFDI consensus."





I would like to point out here that, quite frankly, neither the UKMET or the BAMM were very accurate at long range (>= 72 hrs) with Ernesto. The error for these models was quite unsettling throughout the forecast period, to say the least! I believe there were several reasons for this, but we'll wait and see whether this comes to fruition from the NHC in the coming days/months. I'm sure the forecasters know what they may have done wrong this time, and are working to correct it for future, more potent storms.

Also, just in defense of the forecasters on this point: models are statistical and mathematical. They aren't human beings! They make mistakes. The forecasters, in many respects, correct some of the models discrepancies and make adjustments for them. I think, overall, later in the storms life thusfar the forecasters did a rather good job in predicting the path. Intensity is still a rather hard dynamic variable to forecast! Will it get better? Probably. This season? Possibly, but probably not.

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LisaC
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 39
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #72774 - Wed Aug 30 2006 10:15 AM

Not sure why anyone will be upset with NHC forcasting for Ernesto. They were right on the money. Everyone was expecting this Westward movement of the track, which I failed to see the rational for yesterday. We know intensity is hard to forecast and even I was a little weary of NHC not putting a Hurricane Warning up, but they even nailed they intensity.

Good job to the NHC!


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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida [Re: LisaC]
      #72775 - Wed Aug 30 2006 10:22 AM

Quote:

Not sure why anyone will be upset with NHC forcasting for Ernesto. They were right on the money. Everyone was expecting this Westward movement of the track, which I failed to see the rational for yesterday. We know intensity is hard to forecast and even I was a little weary of NHC not putting a Hurricane Warning up, but they even nailed they intensity.

Good job to the NHC!




Here is a good example of why people are upset:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early5.png (1800 UTC Aug 29th)

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png (1800 UTC - 24 hours later - Aug 30th)

People on this message board, specifically, are upset because they are wishcasting by looking at these very dynamic models. If you look, the error from yesterday has grown thousands of miles in the 120 hour time range. It did the same thing by going from Texas to the Florida coast within 24 hours. Forecasters did an excellent job with forecasting the track, surprisingly, as the official track has been statistically much better than the models (obviously) because there are hundreds of different variables that the forecasters look at that we don't necessarily have the knowledge to dissect or the access to.

I really still didn't see much more westward movement than what was expected. The actual track of the storm was only about 20 miles west of the track which had it moving over metro Miami-Dade and Broward. This is within the NHC's acceptable error!

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LisaC
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 39
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #72776 - Wed Aug 30 2006 10:30 AM

I believe there was a debate last year that talk about getting rid of the skinny black line. I wish they would do away with it and adopt something like what the person on Skeetobite generates. They probably need to lessen the cone of error a couple hundred miles and do away with the black line.

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