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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4360
Loc: Orlando, FL
Ernesto Makes Final Landfall and Invest 98L Arrives
      #73092 - Fri Sep 01 2006 06:51 AM

Near Hurricane Ernesto made landfall near Long Beach, North Carolina around 11:30PM EDT last night, causing about 8 inches of rain, around 70MPH winds. And dumping more rain further north.

Ernesto will likely be studied to see if it actually did make hurricane strength or not before landfall, it was stronger than it was when it crossed over Florida.



Although there are a few waves in the east Atlantic 98L is the newest invest.

AL982006

98L



Ernesto's landfall history includes making landfall 35 miles west of Guantanamo in Cuba on August 28 around noon, a second landfall in the Florida keys just south of Tavernier, and a third landfall on the Mainland Monroe/Miami-Date county line. Exiting the state over Cape Canaveral, and making the final landfall near Wilmington, NC (Long beach).


Event Related Links


The flhurricane Long Term radar recording of Ernesto and a Level 3 radar recording of Ernesto are no longer recording, but you still may view what they did record. (Note there were issues with the Level 3 cutting out during the event)

Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)

Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will be doing his live audio show Monday - Wednesday every night as Ernesto approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.

Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is usually on the road heading toward the storms to provide reports and video and data from the storms. see some of his live streaming video and audio here

Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob

Reply and let us know of other links.

Recon Report Map Plot

Charleston, SC Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Jacksonville, FL Long Range Radar
Wilmington, NC Long Range Radar


Ernesto

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on Ernesto from Jonathan Vigh's page
Google Map Plot of Ernesto
RAMSDIS storm relative satelliteloop
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of Ernesto

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sat Sep 02 2006 05:14 AM)


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stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 73
Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
Re: Ernesto likened to Cindy in 05 [Re: MikeC]
      #73099 - Fri Sep 01 2006 09:28 AM

At landfall Cindy was a strong TS and was intensifying. She had some rather nasty winds, but was moving fairly fast and the rains weren't too bad.

Ernesto was also an intensifying, strong tropical storm at landfall. He however was more of a rainmaker too.

I believe Cindy was later upgraded to a cane. Ernesto had already made hurricane status, but for those in the target zone on the East Coast, an upgrade is kind of nice when you are telling your individual storm story. However, it doesn't make the weather any better or worse.

Let's hope for the rest of the year, the main discussions are whether this storm is a depression or a TS or if it's a cane or not. That maybe and a couple of fish spinners to watch on satellite.
cooltiger

(off-topic material was removed. Pkease note that sports commentary belongs in the Everything & Nothing Forum)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Sep 01 2006 04:07 PM)


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Psyber
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 208
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Ernesto likened to Cindy in 05 [Re: stormtiger]
      #73100 - Fri Sep 01 2006 09:38 AM

Great weekend??

See the last position on the NHC thin black line in the projected track? Thats basically on top of my head at my cottage for the long weekend. Is it too late to wishcast it a little more east?

Projecting 6-8 inches of rain on us...perhaps more if he hits the cold front we're in and slows down.

I think the biggest damage Ernesto is going to do is with excessive rain.

What happened to the 8am?

EDIT:Max sustained winds down to 50 but they still repeated it at 60 hehe. Bah slowing down today means it's going to dumb OODLES of rain.

Edited by Psyber (Fri Sep 01 2006 10:29 AM)


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: Ernesto likened to Cindy in 05 [Re: Psyber]
      #73103 - Fri Sep 01 2006 10:30 AM

From Williamsburg. Getting near the peak of the storm. Not as bad as Isabel, but still a lot of tree trash. No widespread power outages here. Still got another 2-3 hrs, with a heavy bandstill to come through.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Ernesto likened to Cindy in 05 [Re: Ed in Va]
      #73104 - Fri Sep 01 2006 10:33 AM

The 11:00 is out early; its Ernesto's last one

Tropical Depression Ernesto Discussion Number 32

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 01, 2006
radar and surface observations indicate that Ernesto has weakened and is now a tropical depression. However...the combination of Tropical Depression Ernesto and a strong high pressure system to the north is producing a large area of gale force winds well to the north and northeast into the Atlantic. Gale warnings are in effect for a large portion of the coast. See products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Ernesto is expected to move northward and north-northwestward about 12 knots and become extratropical within the next 24 to 36 hours. It should then become absorbed by a frontal system. This will be the last advisory issued by the National hurricane on Ernesto. Future information on this system can be found in public advisories issued by the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center...under AWIPS header TCpat5 and WMO header wtnt35 kwnh...beginning at 5 PM EDT.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 01/1500z 36.4n 77.6w 30 kt 12hr VT 02/0000z 38.0n 77.5w 30 kt...inland 24hr VT 02/1200z 40.0n 78.0w 25 kt...extratropical 36hr VT 03/0000z 41.5n 78.5w 25 kt...extratropical 48hr VT 03/1200z...absorbed by a frontal system

$$ forecaster Avila




I am now wishcasting for a boring next 3 months.


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Ernesto Makes Final Landfall [Re: MikeC]
      #73105 - Fri Sep 01 2006 11:00 AM

Dr Gray's forcast is out for September and they predict 13 named storms (8 left) for the year of which 5 will be hurricanes and 2 will be intense hurricanes.

It's getting better


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Psyber
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 208
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Ernesto Makes Final Landfall [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #73106 - Fri Sep 01 2006 11:10 AM

Quote:

Dr Gray's forcast is out for September and they predict 13 named storms (8 left) for the year of which 5 will be hurricanes and 2 will be intense hurricanes.

It's getting better




Ultimately it's just a turkey shoot when it comes to predicting storms like that. Other than to compare numbers after the fact, I don't know why they do it.

Wow Ernesto is really slowing down and might get blown east away from me...I might just have a dry weekend afterall!



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stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 73
Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
Re: I suspected as much. [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #73107 - Fri Sep 01 2006 11:16 AM

He lowered his September forecast from 15(per August) to 13 for the year. I quote:

"Following below-average activity in August, we are significantly reducing our seasonal forecast. We expect slightly above-average activity in September and that October will likely have below-average activity. We now predict that total seasonal activity will be slightly below the long-term average."

This is good news unless 1 hits in your neighborhood.

They also say:
"Our September-only forecast calls for 5 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes and NTC activity of 59 which is slightly above the September-only average value of 48. Our October-only forecast calls for 2 named storms, 1 hurricane, 0 major hurricanes and NTC activity of 12 which is below the October-only average value of 18. "

Hopefully too the pattern will be in the mid Atlantic and not around florida or the GOM.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
surprise? [Re: stormtiger]
      #73109 - Fri Sep 01 2006 11:45 AM

well, the klotzbach/gray team cut down on the #s. they still look reasonable. i guess the pre-onset el nino type conditions that are in the pacific have them thinking of a fall truncation. october was the most active month last season... they have most everything remaining happening this month.
i think they may have downgraded Ernesto a tad early. i know a gradient is at work on the atlantic coast, but that hasn't stopped them from attributing t.s. winds to what is really a depression in the past. i'm thinking specifically of tammy last year--it was inland near albany, ga, and generating a fetch of t.s. force winds only along the georgia coast. right now we have what is essentially a tropical depression (winds near the immediate center 25-35 mph in ne north carolina, s virginia) and still some sustained gales being reported (wallops island, va, on the atlantic coast). lots of t.s. gusts being reported inland and in nc, md, va. i'd personally have kept it around for another advisory cycle.
still a tight little tropical low moving w near 15/55. the convection near the feature blooms a little more every night and stays a little longer every day. it is also under a very friendly upper ridge. the environment is so dry that it can't really do much, though.
the wave/low near 12/38 has been detaching from the ITCZ and slowly organizing for the last couple of days. it has the appearance of a future system. should take a couple more days, though. nothing really stands in its way, it appears.
HF 1546z01september

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Sep 01 2006 12:15 PM)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 992
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: surprise? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73111 - Fri Sep 01 2006 12:11 PM

The trough left vehind Ernesto and the upper trough in the central GOM is creating some frisky T Storms in the west central Florida area today...better blow than we had with the system two days ago
I note also a slight cyclonic spin at the base of the trough in the Bay of Campeche.
The piece of energy coming down off the central gulf coast moving SE'wd looked like it might be some sort of vortex with an outflow...and I am curious to see if it will get far enough down to encounter the storms still in the eastern Gulf proceding NEw'd across the central peninsula

--------------------
doug


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
admin note [Re: doug]
      #73116 - Fri Sep 01 2006 01:28 PM

moved the discussion of the Ernesto landfalls over to the ask/tell forum. it isn't quite right for this forum, but fits well there. feel kinda dumb because i replied to it before thinking about where it belongs. the geographer in me couldn't resist the subject matter, though.
after today if we're not tracking anything active or imminent to develop, i'll at least go back to moderation lite, i.e. not as strict on the discussion topics on talkbacks. that isn't an invitation to post just anything on the talkbacks, though... you guys know the rules. keeps the discussion narrow but helps prevent getting bogged down in useless chatter.
HF 1729z01september


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syfr
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 19
Loc: Central NC
Ernesto [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73118 - Fri Sep 01 2006 01:35 PM

Ernesto went almost dead overhead early this morning (johnston county NC). Lots of tree trash, but surprisingly less rain than predicted. Perhaps most of the precip was east of the Triangle area. A few large branches down, but I'd doubt we saw any 60kt gust.

John


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: surprise? [Re: doug]
      #73120 - Fri Sep 01 2006 01:40 PM

That low at 15N/55W has a tight LLC down to the surface (oxymoron?). But it looks like it could hvve potential as it moves off to the W (265). If it would moisten up a bit it would end up on NRL in no time.

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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
98L [Re: Steve H1]
      #73121 - Fri Sep 01 2006 02:43 PM

Well we have 98L on the navy site site. It's on the wave around 35W.

For those that don't know, the NRL site can be accessed from the main page.

Edited by twizted sizter (Fri Sep 01 2006 02:44 PM)


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: 98L [Re: twizted sizter]
      #73123 - Fri Sep 01 2006 03:21 PM

It's up on the SFWMD web site too. Let's hope its just a blob.

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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
10N/35W [Re: scottsvb]
      #73125 - Fri Sep 01 2006 03:57 PM

98L is looking rather threatening- I've tried isolating it on the SWMD's website but couldn't find it.

The sat imagery finds the area around 35W looking rather robust for something to get its act together.

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


Edited by rmbjoe1954 (Fri Sep 01 2006 04:46 PM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Dr. Gray's Predictions [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #73127 - Fri Sep 01 2006 04:23 PM

Reports on Forecasts for the season belong in the Storm Forum. I would have moved the whole section except that some good on-topic posts would have been moved with it. A reminder to stay on topic with your discussions - and for the current Main Page, that means TD Ernesto and Invest 98L.
Thanks for your help on this.
ED


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Cariliz
Unregistered




Re: Ernesto Makes Final Landfall and Invest 98L Arrives [Re: MikeC]
      #73129 - Fri Sep 01 2006 04:43 PM

Wow....I am amazed by Ernesto....was fairly weak as it approched FL where we are located. But I just talked to my parents who are located in Eastern Shore Virginia on The Chesapeke Bay. Just wanted to share with you all how bad it really is.

They are currently experiencing 55-60mph winds. They have there lot bulkheaded and are on pilings and have over 7 feet of water in there yard. The water is starting to come up the steps from the garrage steps in to the house. This is their first year in this home so did not expect all of this with Ernesto. All I can say is this storm is really taking its punch on the NorthEast. Just wanted to share.


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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
Re: Ernesto Makes Final Landfall and Invest 98L Arrives [Re: Unregistered User]
      #73130 - Fri Sep 01 2006 05:07 PM

I think alot of what is making Ernestos effects on the NE so bad is a high pressure system moving down causing a pressure gradient. Ernesto is a low pressure system, the high moves down, & whoever is caught in the middle gets it. I think I have that right, maybe a met or someone can explain/correct my simplistic answer.

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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: 10N/35W [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #73132 - Fri Sep 01 2006 05:10 PM

Quote:

98L is looking rather threatening- I've tried isolating it on the SWMD's website but couldn't find it.

The sat imagery finds the area around 35W looking rather robust for something to get its act together.




http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_98.gif

That should be it.

But remember, we're at least, what, a week or more out on this? And it hasn't even developed yet.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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