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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Watching System in Eastern Caribbean & TD #6 in Central Atlantic
      #73176 - Sun Sep 03 2006 09:45 AM

Update - Sunday 5PM
Invest 90L in the central Atlantic has increased in intensity and structure and is now classified as Tropical Depression #6 located near 14.5N 40W. Slow intensification is forecast (eventually to hurricane strength) as the system initially moves to the northwest and then more westward in a couple of days as a mid-Atlantic trough is replaced by a building ridge to the north of the Depression. The caveat on intensification is an area of significant wind shear located to the north and northwest of the system.
ED

Original Post
It's nearing the peak of hurricane season, and things can change fast, and this year is no exception, a wave in the eastern Caribbean (99L) has formed and may form into a Depression over the next few days. It is expected to cross into the Caribbean, so we again will have to watch a system in the Caribbean over the next few days.

Chance for wave in the eastern Caribbean (99L) to develop in the next 24-48 hours
Code:

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[--------*-----------]




Elsewhere another wave in the east central Atlantic (90L) has formed, and we'll be watching that over the next few days, this is very likely to form sooner rather than later too. The other wave (98L) is looking to be dying out, so just the two at the moment, again things can change rapidly this time of the season.

Chance for east central Atlantic wave (90L) to develop in the next 24-48 hours
Code:

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[--------------*-----]





More to come soon....

TD#6

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
Google Map Plot of System
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of TD#6

99L (Eastern Caribbean wave):

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page



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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #73177 - Sun Sep 03 2006 10:38 AM

It seems that the NHC is more interesting in the wave out in the eastern Atlantic than the wave in the carribean at the moment.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GENERATING A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS
SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL WESTWARD-MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS INCREASED A LITTLE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

The wave out in the Atlantic is looking pretty impressive, and I agree with the NHC that it could be a tropical depression today.

--------------------
Derek Sutherland


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean [Re: tornado00]
      #73178 - Sun Sep 03 2006 10:57 AM

Wow I should wake up more before writing the articles, I got the two systems backwards as far as the development chance was concerned.

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Josh Delsman
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Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #73179 - Sun Sep 03 2006 11:01 AM

Some of the models want to make it into an Andrew track, too! This should be a rather interesting post-Labour Day week.

--------------------
MyHurricane - Forecast models, wind radii, latest watches and warnings and more
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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #73180 - Sun Sep 03 2006 11:05 AM

Looking at the satillite image, it appears to me that there are some outflow boundries on the north side of the disturbance in the eastern Atlantic. Also, it seems that the convection is trying to start to wrap around the low pressure center a bit. Think that we'll have a storm sooner than later.

--------------------
Derek Sutherland


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean [Re: tornado00]
      #73182 - Sun Sep 03 2006 11:25 AM

Quote:

Looking at the satillite image, it appears to me that there are some outflow boundries on the north side of the disturbance in the eastern Atlantic. Also, it seems that the convection is trying to start to wrap around the low pressure center a bit. Think that we'll have a storm sooner than later.




The NHC thinks so too, according to the 11:30am TWO.

We could have our first advisories this afternoon if the trends hold up.

C'mon, fish storm...fish storm...please!

I'm hoping these early model runs are TOTALLY wrong and it will shift up and out to open water.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
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Between a rock and a hard place [Re: MikeC]
      #73184 - Sun Sep 03 2006 11:55 AM

To borrow a sort of post naming convection from HF, I'll go with 90L being between a rock and a hard place. It poses a potential threat down the line to the Bahamas and the western Atlantic, but the next two days are going to be critical as to whether anything comes of it or not.

Right now, 90L continues to become better organized and the NHC is considering initiating advisories on it this afternoon. Two problems, though: one, it is situated on the southwest (re: leading) edge of yet another Saharan dust outbreak (see http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8trucol.html for imagery), and two, it is sitting on the south side of a significant shear axis associated with a trough to its north. Remember, it's the combination of shear and the Saharan dust that is particularly bad for developing tropical cyclones, an often fatal blow.

Development now would tend to take the system more toward the northwest and toward this shear axis, likely significantly disrupting the storm. Model forecasts are in good agreement on two things: one, the shear axis and associated trough are nearly done digging toward the south and should begin to lift in the next 36-48 hours, and two, significant ridging will build across the subtropical and western Atlantic -- just offshore of the US -- in the 2+ day time period, with a fairly progressive pattern to the north of the ridge.

I don't see much reason to doubt the model forecasts this time; water vapor imagery this morning shows that there are no indications of any pesky cutoff lows forming from this pattern and that there is nothing significant to keep pushing the trough to the south along 40-50W in the Central Atlantic. However, it is already somewhat further south than the models had anticipated for this time just from the 00Z runs and does look to still be digging ever-so-slightly. My gut is that while we may see a tropical depression out of this feature today, little or no further development will be seen over the next two days. After that, if there is something left, the situation should be in an ideal position to devleop, with a target aimed north of the Lesser Antilles and toward the SE United States. That is way out -- 7 to 10 days at the earliest -- and assumes there will be a feature worth tracking at that point. By no means is that a certainty right now. I don't feel that this is a deep Atlantic fish storm, however, if it does develop.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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harmlc.ath.cx
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 54
Loc: Longwood
Re: Between a rock and a hard place [Re: Clark]
      #73185 - Sun Sep 03 2006 01:42 PM

I agree this won't be a Debby, and the GFS, UKMET, and GFDL are also beginning to show that this won't be a fish spinner if it does form. Out of the two invests (99L and 90L), 90L does have the best chance to develop within the next 24 hours due to warm SST's and low shear. However, once the Saharan dust and the upper trough of low pressure over Cuba weakens, the Caribbean could be a hot spot for development with 99L sitting right in the middle of it come Tuesday.

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
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Re: Between a rock and a hard place [Re: harmlc.ath.cx]
      #73186 - Sun Sep 03 2006 01:59 PM

like the title. 90L will be one of those troublesome systems if it can survive a couple days of strife at the beginning of its existence... that big early-autumn type ridge in the western atlantic the globals have been showing for days is taking position, and the deep upper trough that most were showing recurving 90L won't have the depth/staying power to do it. if this system develops and becomes florence, it'll be our first real longtracker.
further to the west, the older but more convergence-starved 98L has an exposed and somewhat stronger-than-expected circulation. it is slowed and in all likelihood spinning down, but if 90L goes by the way then it may serve as a sort of 'backup'. it's in the ITCZ trough and won't spin up quickly, but won't spin down quickly either. that convective burst overnight really helped it... but if 90L develops it has no real future.
there's a wave further east passing the cv islands. healthy, with maybe one of those weak/broad surface circulations. if it develops early it might just lift up and zip out in the eastern atlantic. slower development could leave it as another longtrack threat.
getting to 99L in the caribbean last. been looking at visibles and it looks like the acceleration into the low level easterlies combined with the upper trough has elongated and opened the surface low. probably just a normal, low amplitude wave now, of less consequence. doubt the easterlies will slow enough or that this system will have the prominence to develop any more.
the disturbed weather near the bahamas doesn't appear to be yielding anything.
wrapup--one probable system with an iffy early future but long-term propsects as a longtracker going into the second week in september. maybe another longtrack-type system behind it that may recurve early or likewise get under the ridge and come west. no other apparent development threats.
HF 1800z03september


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean [Re: Unregistered User]
      #73188 - Sun Sep 03 2006 02:37 PM

NRL has 06L noname AKA TD 6

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc06/ATL/06L.NONAME/ssmi/track_vis/thumb/Latest.html

Edited by craigm (Sun Sep 03 2006 02:38 PM)


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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean [Re: tornado00]
      #73190 - Sun Sep 03 2006 02:59 PM

Quote:

TD 6 at 5:00 p.m. anyone?




That's exactly what "06L.NONAME" means, yes.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean [Re: craigm]
      #73195 - Sun Sep 03 2006 03:32 PM

90L (TD6 IMHO) is getting so organized this afternoon, that if NHC continues to wait to number it, they will have to name it, as well. It's there. It was there mid-morning.

90L has simply become another example of NHCs reluctance to number tropical cyclones that are so far out in the ocean where they have little if any data, but oogles of time to watch and wait .. just to be 101% certain .. If you look at maps of where TCs "usually form," you'll notice a heavy clustering of them just east of the Lesser Antilles, then it's gaps or pockets all the way out to near the Cape Verdes. This is not because the southern Central Atlantic is especially hostile, or horrifically less-conducive than around the Antilles.

So, looks like we definitely now have TD6, and perhaps by this time tomorrow they will name her, too. I can see room for at least one more named system this week. Either 99L (long shot, IMHO) - or perhaps that next ball of lower pressure and deeper convection to roll off of Africa (more possible, methinks). - or perhaps something we haven't seen, yet.

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean [Re: cieldumort]
      #73196 - Sun Sep 03 2006 03:47 PM

Quote:

90L (TD6 IMHO) is getting so organized this afternoon, that if NHC continues to wait to number it, they will have to name it, as well. It's there. It was there mid-morning.

90L has simply become another example of NHCs reluctance to number tropical cyclones that are so far out in the ocean where they have little if any data, but oogles of time to watch and wait .. just to be 101% certain .. If you look at maps of where TCs "usually form," you'll notice a heavy clustering of them just east of the Lesser Antilles, then it's gaps or pockets all the way out to near the Cape Verdes. This is not because the southern Central Atlantic is especially hostile, or horrifically less-conducive than around the Antilles.

So, looks like we definitely now have TD6, and perhaps by this time tomorrow they will name her, too. I can see room for at least one more named system this week. Either 99L (long shot, IMHO) - or perhaps that next ball of lower pressure and deeper convection to roll off of African (more possible, methinks). - or perhaps something we haven't seen, yet.




It has already been numbered, first advisory will be at 5pm EDT. Does anyone know how long or when one of the floaters will be focused on TD6

--------------------
"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
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Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean [Re: cieldumort]
      #73199 - Sun Sep 03 2006 04:14 PM

first, the reason for the clustering of origin points on the maps east of the Antilles but spotty to the east of that is because that data goes back to 1886, so it includes 75 years in which there were no satellite images, so they cant get a reliable track before that
second, all this talk of 99L (eastern caribbean)--i will give it a 5% of developing, because the shear is increasing, the LLC has dissipated, and the convection is weakening
TD6 i feel has a good shot of becoming the season's second hurricane before midweek


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Bee-Beep
Verified CFHC User


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Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean [Re: Rabbit]
      #73201 - Sun Sep 03 2006 04:35 PM

We have TD#6, it's official now.

1st Public Advisory is out.

Soon to be Florence? Might as well be.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2007: 16/8/4

Kirk J.


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


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Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #73203 - Sun Sep 03 2006 04:44 PM

TD 06 id out on the5:00PM A tropical storm by 1:00AM Monday & a hurricane in a few days. Trach is NW, then a bend sw?

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cieldumort
Moderator


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Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean [Re: Jamiewx]
      #73206 - Sun Sep 03 2006 05:09 PM

Well, no. When I wrote this up, NHC had not publicly acknowledged TD6. Sure, you could find "6" and "No Name" up elsewhere, but not at the NHC site. Furthermore, getting back to my point, 90L was a quite possibly a depression as early as this morning, but without more available hard data, this we will never really know.

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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cieldumort
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Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean [Re: Rabbit]
      #73207 - Sun Sep 03 2006 05:12 PM

Quote:

first, the reason for the clustering of origin points on the maps east of the Antilles but spotty to the east of that is because that data goes back to 1886, so it includes 75 years in which there were no satellite images,




I respectfully disagree. While your point is also very valid, it strikes me as simply not the only reason. We have a data void east of the Antilles, to the point of NHC erring on conservative calls out there, IMHO. Were there a multitude of ships, buoys, islands, and really, recon, we could also see significantly more and earlier TCs numbered and/or named in that region.

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


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Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #73209 - Sun Sep 03 2006 05:56 PM

Quote:

TD 06 id out on the5:00PM A tropical storm by 1:00AM Monday & a hurricane in a few days. Trach is NW, then a bend sw?




with this system heading over the antilles i do not think it will break apart, this really needs to be monitored for sooner rather than later it will become Florence. I am hoping this take a path similar to Irene, comes close, but not close enough before turning out to sea. I do not think this system will affect Florida but still, the entire east coast has to monitor this system.

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
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Re: Watching System in Eastern Caribbean [Re: Ryan]
      #73210 - Sun Sep 03 2006 06:22 PM

Here is a clip from the High seas forecast from NWS backing up the 5:00 PM disscussion:


FZNT02 KNHC 032046
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC SUN SEP 03 2006
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 7N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC SUN SEP 03
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC MON SEP 04
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC TUE SEP 05

.WARNINGS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX NEAR 14.6N 40.4W 1005 MB AT 2100 UTC
03 MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT
GUSTS 40 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 16.8N 43.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH
SEAS TO 15 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 18.5N 46.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 45 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH
SEAS TO 18 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 20.0N 50.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NEAR 21.5N 54.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NEAR 23.0N 59.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie

Edited by craigm (Sun Sep 03 2006 06:23 PM)


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