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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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danielwAdministrator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Tropical Storm Gordon Forms
      #73575 - Sun Sep 10 2006 04:28 AM

Update - Monday - 5:30PM
Tropical Storm Gordon has formed in the Atlantic, east of the Caribbean. It is forecast to move away from land and be yet another fish spinner. Florence has passed west of Bermuda and is moving further north now.

Update - Monday - 1130AM
Hurricane Florence now passing northwest of Bermuda moving to the north northeast with maximum sustained winds of 90mph. As noted by the NHC, an elevated location on Bermuda reported a wind gust to 111mph. At 0955EDT, Hamilton reported a wind gust to 83mph with sustained winds out of the south at 66mph.

Tropical Depression #7 continues to slowly organize in the central Atlantic - sustained winds are now about 35mph.
ED

1120PM EDT Sunday Update
NHC has upgraded 93L to Tropical Deprssion 7 at 11PM EDT. Estimated Min, Pressure of 1012mb, and winds of 30mph. TD 7 is expected to drift westward near 6mph for the next 24 hours. The current models aren't initalizing the Depression and extended forecasts are "in the wind".

Hurricane Florence is appearing a bit more ragged on satellite imagery than earlier. Otherwise no change at this time. (From the 11 PM EDT Discussion.)
~danielw

Update - Sunday - 2:30PM
Hurricane Florence now has sustained winds of 80 knots and is beginning to move in a more northerly direction.

Current Weather in Bermuda

Invest 93L has been reinstated and was located near 19.2N 54.2W at 10/18Z. System is moving to the west or just north of due west and is still impressive.
ED

Update - Sunday 12:19PM
not related to the hurricane, but a 6.0 earthquake happened in the Gulf of Mexico today, and I felt it here in Orlando around 10:56 Am. 251 Miles off Bradenton Beach in the Gulf.

More info here

Report what you felt Here Discussion about it Here


Update - Sunday - 7AM
Hurricane Florence near 28N 66W at 10/10Z or about 300 miles south of Bermuda moving to the north northwest at 15mph with sustained winds of 80mph and a central pressure of 976mb. Florence is expected to move north, then north northeast and pass close to Bermuda. A Hurricane Warning has been posted for Bermuda.

Former Invest 93L (previously known as 91L), located well to the east southeast of Florence, has been dropped as an area of interest, however, this system looks better than it has in days and may already be close to Tropical Depression status. The system was located near 19N 53W at 10/10Z with excellent convection and developing banding features.

A large well-formed African wave was located near 10N 10W at 10/10Z (now thats a lot of 10's) and it will be exiting the west coast of Africa on Monday. This system has excellent potential for further development by mid-week.

Another large wave is located over Africa near 10N 15E at 10/09Z - certainly evidence that the peak of the season has arrived.
ED

Original Post
Satellite estimates indicated Tropical Storm Florence was probably a Category 1 Hurricane prior to the arrival of Air Force Reserve Recon Aircraft. However, NHC decided to hold back on the upgrade until Recon data was received.

Hurricane Florence

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
Google Map Plot of System
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of Florence

93L (Eastern Atlantic wave):
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page

Edited by MikeC (Mon Sep 11 2006 05:38 PM)


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cieldumort
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Re: Hurricane Florence [Re: danielw]
      #73576 - Sun Sep 10 2006 04:56 AM

Satellite estimates indicated Tropical Storm Florence was probably a Category 1 Hurricane prior to the arrival of Air Force Reserve Recon Aircraft

That could be the understatement of the season, you know

10/0645 UTC 27.4N 65.5W T4.5/4.5 FLORENCE
09/2345 UTC 25.8N 64.9W T4.0/4.0 FLORENCE
09/1745 UTC 24.8N 63.3W T4.0/4.0 FLORENCE
09/1145 UTC 24.3N 63.1W T4.0/4.0 FLORENCE
09/0645 UTC 24.3N 62.4W T4.0/4.0 FLORENCE

That's been one of the longest runs I have seen where NHC did not at some point concur - even now, at 75MPH, they are not only conservative for the comparable sat-derived estimates, but for a pressure of 978MB, as well. I'm the first to say that lower pressure readings does not always an upgrade make, however. At least not on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, at any rate.

Looks like the eye formed prior to midnight AST, as suggested by several microwave passes. That satellite eclipse is always such a detriment to the overnight forecasts, however.

I've noticed that 93L (formerly 91) has been taken off NRL this morning, which just strikes me as a little premature, given the ongoing convection and lower level swirls associated with this feature. SSD is still calling it T1.0/ CI 1.0, as they have been. It would take the cake if it starts being tracked later today or tomorrow as 94 or 95.

--------------------
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HanKFranK
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Re: Hurricane Florence [Re: cieldumort]
      #73577 - Sun Sep 10 2006 05:02 AM

hey, florence finally did something. showing an eye on IR, strong deep convection in the central area. pressure has fallen about 15 mb since the evening. if it keeps even close to that pace, could be quite a hurricane grazing bermuda on monday morning. it'd have to really bomb today to come close to fabian, the 2003 storm which was probably the strongest near-direct hit bermuda has taken in the last century.
93L... thought that was still 91L. pretty much the same feature. with florence finally getting going, this little feature could be in for more of a beating from shear and whatnot. if the shear lets up it would quickly be a tropical cyclone, but how many systems like that have we seen that never found a happy place?
HF 0902z10september


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danielwAdministrator
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6 AM EDT Update [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73578 - Sun Sep 10 2006 06:19 AM

NHC is indicating the Minimum Central Pressure has dropped about 17mb over the last 12 hours. Nowhere near the definitions listed below. But Florence is showing her feathers.

Rapid deepening. Drop in pressure of 1.75mb/ hr, or 42mb in 24 hours.
Explosive deepening- drop in pressure of 2.5mb/hr for at least 12 hours, or 5mb/hr for at least 6 hours.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml

RECON departed the storm around 0832Z (nearly 2 hours ago).
Next scheduled Aircraft is due for an 18Z (2 PM EDT) and 00Z (8 PM EDT)fix.
With Fixes, at every 6 hours beginning at 18Z Today.

Edited by danielw (Sun Sep 10 2006 06:25 AM)


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Storm Cooper
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Re: 93L [Re: danielw]
      #73580 - Sun Sep 10 2006 07:19 AM

Florence made the official grade after some time and as noted on the Main Page 93L has been dropped as an invest but I would not be surprised to see it back. The last models ran on it were 00Z and it had a T number of 1.0/1.0.

Guess what is back on the NRL site?...and as of 1145 UTC, T 1.5/1.5

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Sep 10 2006 09:19 AM)


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madmumbler
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Re: 93L [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #73582 - Sun Sep 10 2006 09:27 AM

I just looked (9:24 am est) and 93L is up there on the NRL Monterey page.

I was honestly beginning to think they were never going to upgrade Florence at all.

I'm hoping if 93L does anything it sticks to the same or similar track. Not that I wish this on Bermuda mind you, I just wish it away from us here in FL!

Is there anything in the models that would indicate a change in track if 93L does get it's act together?

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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craigm
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Re: 93L [Re: madmumbler]
      #73583 - Sun Sep 10 2006 09:39 AM

I'm getting confused. FSU is plotting GFDL 93L in a completely different location (eastern caribbean) than NRL 93L 19N 53W???

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfdl/invest93l/fcst/archive/06091000/8.html

I'm not sure what the GFDL is seeing down there satellite images don't show anything going on. Something may be stirring in the northern gulf though
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif



Edited by craigm (Sun Sep 10 2006 10:00 AM)


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Hurricane Florence Threatens Bermuda [Re: danielw]
      #73585 - Sun Sep 10 2006 11:05 AM

Interesting you should mention 93L in your new thread this morning... It's Dvorak T numbers are now up to 1.5, which is just another smack in face of TPCs confusion over why this seasons seems.....almost "metaphysically" being imposed upon...

Sarcasm aside, with less SAL and fewer TUTTs than in recent weeks, we have since seen more developments... Having Florence now, and a system essentially written off appear to be popping back to life is strong arguments for losing some magnitude of these inhibitors.

--SAL is a convection suppressor... It has 2 components to it that are toxic to TC development. Firstly, they have an interesting sounding structure where air mass between roughly the 700 and 500 mb llvs is essentially isothermal, meaning it doesn't really rise or fall with altitude... The largely statically stable environment is similar to a "lid" or CIN (Convective INhibition normally discussed in conjunction with land-based convection). Having this type of sounding pervasive about the Atlantic Basin is naturally thus bad for initializing and sustaining all important convection for TWs. The other aspect about SAL is dust. This aspect is not as well understood but it has to do with cloud microphysics.. An over-abundance of condensation nuclei (dust particles on micro-scopic and molecular scales) creates "too many" surfaces for LCL droplets to coalesce upon... This causes the cloud to max out adiabatically at a lower altitude in the atmosphere, thus also stopping sustained deep layer vertical motion... (You need that to create the mechanics in the "heat engine" of a TC).

--TUTTs are Tropospheric Upper Tropospheric Troughs for those who do not know... They tend to form on the severed ends of tresspassing westerly troughs that have somehow poked to unusual latitudinal depths... Once nipped, the southern ends close off - albeit weakly - and then migrate W under the axis of the mean subtropical ridge positions. Having an over-abundance of these cause higher durations of shear. There are other ways these can form, however.

Anyway, it has been the observed positive anomalous states of these two inhibitors that is more likely the cause for this season's "thus far" under-achievement... But, I caution: The season still has 2 or so months of chances and with said SAL and TUTT behavior on the decline, there could be a recovery in the numbers whether the thus far lack-luster production has us in the right attitude or not...

John

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Sep 10 2006 11:09 AM)


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HanKFranK
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Re: Hurricane Florence Threatens Bermuda [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #73592 - Sun Sep 10 2006 12:18 PM

hmm.. florence has the look of a strengthening system. even if the eye doesn't become well-defined it could still deepen given the increasingly baroclinic environment. the NHC putting the cap on it below cat 3 is probably right, but it isn't impossible the storm will make another significant lurch downward with the pressure. bermuda ought to get socked pretty good by this one. probably no fabian, but a significant, long-duration storm nonetheless.
93L... like tip says, should probably be receiving more attention than it is. every recent TWO has read like it's a wave with a weak low.. it's actually a small, well-defined low with clingy persistent convection... a little sheared but fairly deep. mind that the t-rating it is getting isn't taking into account the shear it is fighting off... it may be a little stronger than suggested. a good flareup and this thing is a tropical storm... but that won't happen until florence whips out into the north atlantic. it'll probably round the ridge and slide north into florence's escape weakness regardless... unless ridging rebuilds very quickly.
others mentioned something about that wave set to come off africa. the globals like this one much more than usual... most are making it a tropical cyclone with little hesitation. might be a very precocious developer.
HF 1618z10september

Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Sep 10 2006 12:19 PM)


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Lee-Delray
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Re: 93L [Re: danielw]
      #73601 - Sun Sep 10 2006 05:30 PM

93L is getting attention now:

A small area of low pressure located about 550 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands is moving westward at about 10 mph. Shower and thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated near the circulation center and a tropical depression could form tonight or tomorrow.


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harmlc.ath.cx
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Re: 93L [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #73603 - Sun Sep 10 2006 06:17 PM

It appears as if 93L is far enough away from Florence with wind shear around 10 knots now. However, the good news is if a tropical system is to form all models show this system following behind Florence and not being a threat to the U.S. Models are showing a pretty impressive system coming off of Africa mid week as HF was stating, but it appears as if this system will also recurve out to sea.

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cieldumort
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Re: 93L [Re: harmlc.ath.cx]
      #73606 - Sun Sep 10 2006 07:39 PM

Yeah, 93L - Really, this feature is another *already* tropical cyclone, IMHO. A small one, which seems likely to me to be producing a very tiny area of 30+mph winds, as a best guess based on the innermost spin within the deepest convection. It seems reasonable that this one gets an upgrade as soon as tonight or overnight and becomes 7.

Closer to home, a stationary front draped across the northern GOM, now a remnant trough, has been inducing some very persistent convection with healthy convergence for the second day now. Do not see anything spinning up along it right now, but it seems that it might attempt to do so as early as overnight, as well.

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: 93L [Re: cieldumort]
      #73607 - Sun Sep 10 2006 08:03 PM

I was noticing the GOM thingy a few minutes ago on a long SSEC Composite shot and noticed a familiar turn that is at least as together as other tropical lows in early stages. There is also a slight turn on the local radar also but I have my doubts about how up to the hour those radar pictures are because I have known them in the past to be an hour or more off what is happening. We have had our usual off and on showers this afternoon.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Hugh
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Re: 93L [Re: cieldumort]
      #73608 - Sun Sep 10 2006 08:05 PM

Interesting pair, Florence and 93L are. On the one hand, you've got a HUGE hurricane, and on the other, a tiny tropical depression-wannabe. From all indications, 93L will follow in Florence's wake, which may keep it in check. Doesn't look likely to be much of an impact to any land in any case.

Florence's eye is now visible on Bermuda radar, and what an eye it is. Is the range of the radar that big, or is the eye really huge?

TCFA has just been issued near 21.0N 54.0W. Interesting that the graphic indicates movement is almost due west, even though computer models have the soon-to-be TD 7 moving northwest almost immediately.

Hmm... now I click on the "Animate" link for Invest 93L, and the page is messed up, and the side bar doesn't show 93L (on the messed up page). Could be that they're about to put up 07L.NONAME?

Edit: As cieldumort says below... I can't get that link to work, but NRL has not put up 07L.NONAME. The first computer model run that initialized TD 7, BAMM, has it making a beeline for Bermuda, curving to the NE just south of the islands.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sun Sep 10 2006 08:54 PM)


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cieldumort
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Re: 93L [Re: Hugh]
      #73609 - Sun Sep 10 2006 08:49 PM

Well, we have TD 7 .



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COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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madmumbler
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Re: Hurricane Florence Threatens Bermuda [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #73610 - Sun Sep 10 2006 09:28 PM

Quote:

Anyway, it has been the observed positive anomalous states of these two inhibitors that is more likely the cause for this season's "thus far" under-achievement... But, I caution: The season still has 2 or so months of chances and with said SAL and TUTT behavior on the decline, there could be a recovery in the numbers whether the thus far lack-luster production has us in the right attitude or not...





And lest anyone forget, Wilma was a late season (Oct.) storm. Followed by a COLD front. I woke up wearing shorts that morning and had to put on sweats to clean up the palm fronds down in the yard that afternoon.

But so far, I'm enjoying the shear, dry air, African dust, and recurves to the north Atlantic. It's keeping Florida out of the line of fire!

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 93L [Re: cieldumort]
      #73615 - Sun Sep 10 2006 10:31 PM

Quote:

Well, we have TD 7 .






Above link changed to Public link. Please do not provide links to Official DOD sites.
If the site you are using has a disclaimer similar to the one below.
Please don't post links to it here.
~danielw
"This is a Department of Defense computer system. This computer system, including all related equipment, networks and network devices (specifically including Internet access), are provided only for authorized U.S. government use.... "
---


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HanKFranK
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Re: 93L [Re: danielw]
      #73623 - Mon Sep 11 2006 01:56 AM

apparently a hurricane hitting bermuda doesn't interest the forum much. considering the date i guess people's minds are on other things.
florence seems to be doing all it can do. the inner core has never organized past a ragged-looking CDO.. the eye has only had a truly ringed appearance at short intervals. cloud motions indicate that it is starting to feel the southwesterly flow ahead of the trough... as the convection is shifting to the right side, and cirrus blowoff is exposing the southwestern side a tad. should pass within about 50 miles of bermuda around mid-morning. maybe they'll get an hour or two of winds near hurricane force, with stronger gusts through midday. if the storm keeps looking tropical.. it'll probably peel to the right... if it starts to lose tropical characteristics early it might just run more northward towards the canadian maritimes. probably stay southeast of them. the official has cape race getting a good lick, though.
td 7... the NHC decided to tag the little guy. it will get a recon pass tomorrow and may be tropical storm gordon at the time. i wouldn't be surprised if it's a little stronger than the official shows right now, but probably not t.s. strength. it is moving slowly and with the decreasing influence from florence be able to strengthen. florence has nice break for it to work its way up into.. it may refill but hand the storm off to the next trough. gordon doesn't have much immediate model support, but plenty are showing a system deepening behind florence and following along.. that may be the solution. not much chance this thing doesn't get whipped out to sea.
globals are making an interesting frontal type low in the ne gulf during the week, and stopping it under a block off the east coast this weekend. doesn't look very tropical, but systems of that type are suspect when they get stuck off the east coast in september.
there's a low amplitude wave which may be enhanced some due to upper troughing digging ahead, out near 30w. some of the globals liked it this morning, but have since lost interest. the wave currently coming off africa is made into a tropical system by numerous models. doesn't have the look of an instant storm on satellite, but is in a synoptically favorable place and already has some requisite structure. bears watching. likely to recurve, but would be interesting if it just headed west and slowly organized...
not our basin, but some models are showing an eastpac storm running near the baja this weekend. deep trough in the west could bring a lot of moisture up into the southwest and plains later this month.
anyhow, time to sleep.
HF 0556z11september


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madmumbler
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Re: 93L [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73624 - Mon Sep 11 2006 06:44 AM

Quote:

apparently a hurricane hitting bermuda doesn't interest the forum much. considering the date i guess people's minds are on other things.




I don't think it's that so much as it is the fact that most of us are going "phew! It's not hitting ME!" It's not going to be a mainland US event, so few people are paying attention to it.

If we had a ton of Bermuda residents on the board that we knew and were worried about, we'd probably be more concerned.

Not that we wish it on anyone! But most of the members here are mainland US, are they not?

Personally, I will welcome ANYTHING that takes my mind off of 9/11.

Including tracking TD7.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Lee-Delray
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Re: Hurricane Florence Threatens Bermuda [Re: danielw]
      #73627 - Mon Sep 11 2006 08:19 AM

I truely feel sorry for the people in Bermuda who will go through this. But, after having the crap beat out of me the last two years and threatened until the last few days by Ernesto, there is some relief in not having to deal with this right now.

I view Florence as an interesting storm, but unlike other storms, this one doesn't have any mystery to it.
The models and the NHC had predicted this one really well from day one. To a layman, nothing really chnged from one day to the next.



Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Sep 11 2006 10:24 AM)


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