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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Quiet Time Interrupted?
      #74078 - Fri Oct 27 2006 07:39 PM

Sunday 8AM (EST) Update
After weakening somewhat Saturday evening, Invest 93L has again redeveloped good convection in the central Caribbean Sea. First visible satellite images indicate that earlier this morning some of the models initialized the system about one degree too far to the south. A weak mid-level low associated with the wave appears to be near 15N 72.5W at 29/12Z. Forward motion has remained more westerly over the past 24 hours at 15 knots and a west to west northwest motion should continue for the next couple of days. Wind shear should remain light through Monday, so some additional development is still possible. NHC has issued a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement for the potential of flooding rains over Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
ED

Original Post
An active tropical wave (Invest 93L) is located just to the east of the southern Leeward Islands. Motion is toward the west or west northwest at about 10 knots and this slow movement to the west northwest is likely to continue for the next three days with a turn more to the north thereafter. Some development is possible as wind shear should remain on the light side through Monday. Light westerly winds and a pressure of 1009mb were reported at Barbados as the system passed to the north of the island late Friday afternoon. Additional discussion in the Storm Forum.

Elsewhere, the basin remains quiet, however, the eastern Caribbean Sea is worth an occasional glance this weekend.
ED


Event Related Links
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations

Radar Imagery
San Juan, PR
Martinique Radar


Caribbean Wave (93L)
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot


Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Oct 29 2006 08:25 AM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Quiet Time Interrupted? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #74079 - Fri Oct 27 2006 08:34 PM

The most recent windsat pass over 93L is very impressive. While clearly not showing a healthy TC-like closed off circulation/wind field/convective pattern, combined with the visible image it does certainly bolster the observation that a closed off low probably does exist at the surface, that deeper convection has been building in somewhat closer and closer to the center of circulation, and that shear doesn't appear to be taking a horrible toll on the system. What really stands out, are some uncontaminated 50 knot vectors - that although clearly not representative of the system as a whole, does illustrate what it is capable of in the heavy convective showers. Take a look!

Edit - For those looking , the 50 knot barbs not rain-flagged are indeed a little hard to find at first - you'll need to click on (enlarge) the image, and then look in the areas around/near 13.5N 59W

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


Edited by cieldumort (Fri Oct 27 2006 09:38 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Quiet Time Interrupted? [Re: cieldumort]
      #74081 - Fri Oct 27 2006 08:58 PM

Just as a heads-up -- in that form of the scatterometer imagery, any barb with a small circle at the end of it is actually rain-flagged. This differs from the QuikSCAT ones, where they color them black. The highest uncontaminated ones I see are 25-30kt there...still not shabby, though.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Quiet Time Interrupted? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #74084 - Sat Oct 28 2006 05:03 PM

Looks like 93L is getting it's act together. Its been moving more west lately but it will eventually turn at least a tad more north. Looks to me like we may have a TD in our hands for tommorrow. Joyce? Well can't get too far with that. Convection is actually wrapping around the LLC and just needs a burst to upgrade it to TD status. They should really send the Hurricane Hunters down there but they wont.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: Quiet Time Interrupted? [Re: allan]
      #74085 - Sat Oct 28 2006 07:41 PM

Just when I thought we were out of the woods. *sigh*

What abouti this cold front that's coming through here now? What kind of steering impact will it have on it?

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Quiet Time Interrupted? [Re: madmumbler]
      #74088 - Sun Oct 29 2006 09:16 AM

hmm... things look dead as can be, then a new invest pops up. fairly vigorous wave and a good amount of vorticity to it... maybe not a completely closed surface low, though. there also appears to be some anticyclonic curvature to the winds aloft, with the stronger shear removed northward. east of it on a stalled/dying frontal zone is another convective flare on the coast of honduras, which is more or less stationary and probably defines the furthest west extent to which the other could track, as the westerly winds are not far to the north and west. like some of the models have been suggesting, the big high in the east has synoptically forced pressure falls in the caribbean, and lighter winds aloft have allowed it to provide some support to the wave and frontal remnant. if the region can squeeze anything out it will likely struggle slowly northwestward or northward until the next trough dips down and carries it out northeast.. maybe just stall a bit too as the upper ridge to the northeast flattens and leaves it in a weak steering regime. in the meanwhile it could mean quite a bit of rain for hispaniola, jamaica, and parts of cuba. right now it's sort of in a steady state, needing strong convection to persist near the center of the low pressure area to bring it up to tropical cyclone standards. not likely any kind of u.s. threat, but maybe a rainy last event for the tropics this year in parts of the caribbean.
HF 1416z29october


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Quiet Time Interrupted? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #74089 - Sun Oct 29 2006 10:19 PM

Well, HF...This seems to be one of the surprisingly more active periods we have seen as of late...and this forum seems to be quiet of discussion for some reason. Looking at the overall satellite representation this evening, there seems to be some changes. To add on to notes of a frontal low off Hodoras and the low south of hispanola. It's apparent that the two systems down there are generally approaching one another. Likewise, a non tropical low seems to be assembling just to the north of the Turks and Caicos Islands. My read is this...If the low north of the Turks and Caicos can deepen and peel out, it will leave an area in the western Carrib where the remanants of the front and the wave that was south of Hispanola today can converge and fester across the western Carribean. However, if that low north of the eastern Bahamas does not peel out to the NE (which I believe it will) the pattern would be too complicated for tropical development. Here across Southern Florida, the weather will be transitioning to warmer conditions and we will be out from under continental weather until next weekend. Likewise, so will the Carribean Sea. It's interesting...development not likely...but very definately curious to me.

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 992
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Quiet Time Interrupted? [Re: dem05]
      #74090 - Mon Oct 30 2006 12:22 PM

The mid-level passing south of Cuba and moving wnw has me curious too..what with the next four days with the SE CONUS under the influence of High Pressure and all...the next east coast trough is not due until Friday;
The broad feature near Honduras is showing westward drift.

--------------------
doug


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Quiet Time Interrupted? [Re: doug]
      #74091 - Mon Oct 30 2006 08:29 PM

Overall, the area in the Western Carribean is probably looking more interesting than anything we've seen in quite some time due to hidging aloft. While the models still don't seem to be jumping on anything significant down there, I am now noticing that the low level influence and pull of moisture on the South East side of this trough complex down there has made it as far to the south as Columbia and South America. This is a pretty darn interesting feature when also considering the 7:05 Tropical Wx Discussion referenced several low level swirls evident in the western Carribean. With the ridging aloft, continued warm ocean temperatures in the area, general low pressure across the area, and consistent moderate thunderstom activity...If one of these swirls happens to take off during the diurnal pattern or ovewr the next 48 hours...we may be throwing down a couple plots on a tracking with this feature yet. Overall, this has been a fairly tenacious wave with ups and downs in activity from its time in the western Atlantic, all the way across the Carribean. The remenants of the old front may be that extra kick that is needed for it to have a shot...We shall see.

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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 90
Re: Quiet Time Interrupted? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #74092 - Mon Oct 30 2006 09:14 PM

this will be an interesting few days. an area of persisting storms, warm waters, stalled out front; the ingredients seem to be in place for possible development. of course the way the season has gone that might not matter too much. as long as the area festers in the caribbean something might pop up.

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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Quiet Time Interrupted? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #74094 - Tue Oct 31 2006 02:12 PM

93L according to NOAA has mde a comeback but Navy does'nt have it up yet but they will eventually. Very well defined exposed swirl next to the convection. Maybe something could still happen?
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Tue Oct 31 2006 02:15 PM)


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Quiet Time Interrupted? [Re: allan]
      #74095 - Tue Oct 31 2006 02:23 PM

As of this post NRL does have 93L back up and new model runs have been made...10-31 18Z..

...not much of any global model support this time either.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by Storm Cooper (Tue Oct 31 2006 02:43 PM)


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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
Re: Quiet Time Interrupted? [Re: allan]
      #74096 - Tue Oct 31 2006 03:34 PM

Quote:

Navy does'nt have it up yet.



Yes they do.

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi


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SebastianLou
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida
Re: Quiet Time Interrupted? [Re: ltpat228]
      #74097 - Tue Oct 31 2006 06:17 PM

The NHC chatter has decreased and increased on this system everyday lately; not likely, slow to occur, etc. Nobody seems to have a good handle on things. I see some models crossing Florida in 4 days, am I wrong? What would I expect, gusty rain showers? or a Wilma type set up on central east coast Florida? Way too soon to know? My guess the mess mainly stays in the Carribean; hope so anyway. Those that know about steering and development factors, please give your thoughts.

Lou


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Quiet Time Interrupted? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #74099 - Wed Nov 01 2006 03:00 AM

We've got a LLC that just spun up off the tip of Honduras near 16N 84W. It's formed possibly under the influence of a mid-level vorticity maxima that has been somewhat persistent. Might be telling to see if this LLC holds on a bit. Can now just be made out in this large still from NRL.

Pressures are starting to drop some more tonight, as well (to their lowest levels in the region yet)

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Quiet Time Interrupted? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #74101 - Wed Nov 01 2006 03:32 PM

From the NHC, I guess it's bye-bye to 93L


Statement as of 11:30 am EST on November 1, 2006
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

Disorganized shower activity continues in association with a trough of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Further development...if any...of this system should be slow to occur. However...due to the slow movement of this disturbance...heavy rainfall may occur over portions of the western Caribbean Sea... Honduras...and Nicaragua during the next day or so.

The broad low pressure area...in the extreme southwestern Caribbean Sea...has moved inland over Nicaragua this morning. Development of this system is not anticipated.


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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 90
Re: Quiet Time Interrupted? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #74102 - Wed Nov 01 2006 04:51 PM

just checking the buoy data in the caribbean and the pressure is a bit lower with the wind speed and gusts on a slight increase. not saying anything is going to develop but still worth watching a little bit longer.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42056&meas=wdpr&uom=E


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Quiet Time Interrupted? [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #74103 - Wed Nov 01 2006 06:58 PM

Probably the most interesting feature out there in a month, but alas it just doesn't seem to want to have the impetus to take that next step and substantially organize. It's still got a shot, and it's in the right area if it is going to do anything, but I have to agree with the NHC in that development isn't likely through tomorrow. Maybe Friday.

Oh, and if anyone sees this tonight (Wednesday night), take a look at the northeast Pacific at about 42N and 145W. We saw that a lot in the Atlantic last year, now it looks as though the Pacific is trying to form a high latitude tropical system? The most recent GFS phase space diagram (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/06110100/11.html) shows a clear warm core structure, a relatively deep one at that, and it's now invest 93C on the NRL site. It's in the CPHC's zone of responsibility right now, so we may not get an upgrade...but if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck...

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Quiet Time Interrupted? [Re: Clark]
      #74105 - Thu Nov 02 2006 03:57 AM Attachment (668 downloads)

Now this is what I call better organized (See attachment). I wonder how long this activity will persist. Clark, you may very well be correct...if this holds up...we may have something to track on Friday.

Edited by dem05 (Thu Nov 02 2006 03:57 AM)


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Quiet Time Interrupted? [Re: dem05]
      #74106 - Thu Nov 02 2006 05:45 AM Attachment (682 downloads)

HUH?!? I Have to agree to disagree with the 5:30 AM Outlook a bit. Disorganized? Gotta question that one. Looks about as good as Alberto and Ernesto to me. Development not expected...I was very surprised to read that. If t-storms persist a few more hours, maybe they will issue a Special Disturbance Statement before the 11:30 Tropical Weather Outlook. That would not be beyond neccessity if the convection continues with this feature. However, I'm kinda surprised that this feature did not get a little more credit for it's organization at this time.

Attached is a photo as of 5:31 AM to back the claim.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EST THU NOV 2 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE
OR ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/COBB

Edited by dem05 (Thu Nov 02 2006 05:46 AM)


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