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Archives 2000s >> 2007 Forecast Lounge

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reedzone
Unregistered




Felix Lounge
      #77690 - Sat Sep 01 2007 02:35 PM

Hey everyone, Allan again, I should be back later on tonight.. Amazing how feliz rapidly strengthened today, also that shift in the models is finally starting to take place. the HRMF model run has shifted so north where it completely misses the Yucitan and heads for Texas or Luisiana! I find this model reasonable as this weakness could be stronger and may pull Felix more north then the current track. Not only the HRMF model shifts but the Bams and more models are shifting, I expect models to continue to shift north and possibly have some of them hitting as far east as Alabama.. NAM model has been crying out Hurricane Charley as it moves it north into western Cuba.. As I stated earlier yesterday, this storm reminds me alot of Charley by it's structure and where it formed, though the track should be much different.. gonna have to see what happens.
The chance of Felix hitting the USA in my books has gone up from 30 to 50%

Edited by MikeC (Sun Sep 02 2007 09:14 AM)


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mar32366
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Storm Felix forms in Southeastern Caribbean [Re: reedzone]
      #77707 - Sat Sep 01 2007 07:25 PM

Felix is on the way to being a hurricane and if I'm looking at satellite pictures correctly its moving more w-nw than west now. I'm no expert but it does to be gaining a northern componet to its direction. If anyone agrees please help me out. My forecast 2 days ago was a guess based on upper level forecasts into a more w-nw course towards Jamica but again I would like to hear some others and what they are seeing. I wasn't sure what impact south america would have on Felix but it seems not much at all allowing for strengthening to continue and a more w-nw course instead of a weaker storm and a west course.

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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Hurricane Felix Passes Just North of Aruba [Re: reedzone]
      #77735 - Sun Sep 02 2007 09:11 AM

Morning, Hurricane Felix is rapidly strengthening and could be a category 4 later tonight. Felix is also surprising peope with it's motion, no longer it is west but now west northwest and looks to be moving a bit north of the projected path. If the USA is in any danger, it would be Texas.. unless it keeps moving the way it is, it would hit Jamaica and then brush the Yucitan.
Now I put no trust in the models yet, I am putting my forecast where the steering currents show me what direction this could head. Notice the steering currents for a 980-970 MLB storm, Shows a west-northwestward movement then after hitting the Yucitan, the current steering draws the arrows north into Texas and Luisiana at best. If the storm were more north, it would hit New Oreans.. Here are the steering currents
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm3.html

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Wishbuster
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Felix Passes Just North of Aruba [Re: allan]
      #77736 - Sun Sep 02 2007 09:23 AM

Quote:

Morning, Hurricane Felix is rapidly strengthening and could be a category 4 later tonight. Felix is also surprising peope with it's motion, no longer it is west but now west northwest and looks to be moving a bit north of the projected path. If the USA is in any danger, it would be Texas.. unless it keeps moving the way it is, it would hit Jamaica and then brush the Yucitan.
Now I put no trust in the models yet, I am putting my forecast where the steering currents show me what direction this could head. Notice the steering currents for a 980-970 MLB storm, Shows a west-northwestward movement then after hitting the Yucitan, the current steering draws the arrows north into Texas and Luisiana at best. If the storm were more north, it would hit New Oreans.. Here are the steering currents
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm3.html




Woah, it looks to be right on the projected path to me. I don't see what could move it north. Why do people wishcast things to head to the US when it's pretty clear it's not?


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4478
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Felix Passes Just North of Aruba [Re: Wishbuster]
      #77737 - Sun Sep 02 2007 10:14 AM

Quote:


Woah, it looks to be right on the projected path to me. I don't see what could move it north. Why do people wishcast things to head to the US when it's pretty clear it's not?




There are always a few that tend to wishcast. That's not really happening here.. . From what I can tell Allan's not way off either. Take a look at the Visible Loop here and apply the forecast plots. Eye is now visible on the visual satellite, so it's pretty easy to spot. It has wobbled north a bit. The steering pattern that he linked is from today, its just as fluid and can change. That said I don't see it moving northward eitehr, and yes landfall in the US is still a hugely remote possibility, but for the most part I still don't see a reason for the NHC to be off from the Cone that's there.

You may have picked up on his mention of Louisiana, that has to do with the currents further down the line, and I don't think he was suggesting Felix would go there.

That's why the cone is there. Allan is probably referring to the period where it reenters the Bay of Campeche, and that's still a bit of a wildcard. If you go with recent history (ala Dean) you would suggest Mexico there. Still BOC is too far out, and I still think it'll be more south than north.

I do understand the feeling of it seeming like wishcasting when everyone is saying... will it turn north? Sometimes it reads more like "please turn north!" and that's when it enters into the realm of wishcasting. We even came pretty close to doing that with Dean last time.



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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
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Re: Hurricane Felix Passes Just North of Aruba [Re: MikeC]
      #77738 - Sun Sep 02 2007 10:22 AM

Agreed. I think NO is way out of the picture, but south TX is still a possibility.

Kind of curious about there being a NHC track on the new maps for 98L. I thought the NHC only chimed in when there was at least a depression.?

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4478
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Felix Passes Just North of Aruba [Re: MikeC]
      #77740 - Sun Sep 02 2007 10:33 AM

Just to help along, we've started long term recording that steering image map. It'll probably be done for any long tracking type storm.

You can find it http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?27 -- here


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ksteger
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Storm Felix forms in Southeastern Caribbean [Re: mar32366]
      #77741 - Sun Sep 02 2007 11:46 AM

Yep, I can see the more northern componet to Felix's movement this morning. The forecast track has also continued to trend north as well. Check out the trough digging in to Texashttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/loop-wv.html. This trough could erode the ridge in the gulf which should steer Felix towards the central gulf coast. Lookout Houston to Mobile!

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 98L [Re: reedzone]
      #77743 - Sun Sep 02 2007 12:19 PM

The only concern right now is Felix and the developing system off jacksonville....98L is note talking about..but what most should talk about is off Florida very soon ( outside of Felix) This system should develop and move back towards Florida-SC by the end of this week coming up. How strong it gets we are unsure of at this time.

scottsvb

(without rationale, this is Forecast Lounge material - Post moved to appropriate Forum. A reminder that the Storm Forum is strictly Moderated.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Sep 02 2007 10:54 PM)


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neospaceblue
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 28
Loc: Newport News, VA
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: reedzone]
      #77754 - Sun Sep 02 2007 01:57 PM

I'm going to guess Category Five by tomorrow or Tuesday.

--------------------
I survived: Hurricane Bonnie (1998), Hurricane Dennis (1999), Hurricane Floyd (1999), Hurricane Isabel (2003), Tropical Storm Ernesto (2006)


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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: neospaceblue]
      #77760 - Sun Sep 02 2007 03:47 PM

I read in the following article that Felix is expected at a Cat 4 when it goes through Hondurus and Beliz. Does this mean that when it goes into the warm waters of the Gulf it could strenghthen to a Cat 5 and affect the Gulf From TX all the way to Northern FL?

http://www.comcast.net/news/index.jsp?cat=GENERAL&fn=/2007/09/02/753646.html&cvqh=itn_felix

--------------------


Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England


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Loudest Tundra in Florida
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 7
Loc: "Rivertucky" FL
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: StrmTrckrMiami]
      #77777 - Sun Sep 02 2007 04:49 PM

I can surely see a bit of a more wnw jog over the last GOES Floater loop. Somewhere around 18:45. I cant say that I see the track changing much, but without a doubt more to the north.

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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: Loudest Tundra in Florida]
      #77850 - Mon Sep 03 2007 03:42 AM

That was a major pressure drop yesterday...Didn't think about this when Felix was weaker earlier in the day, but if you are still using the steering current link posted above. The proper steering level map for Hurricanes with a pressure below 940mb is the 200mb-700mb steering level chart (this can be confirmed by the TCpressure level in the top left box above each map). In other words, you may want to look at the steering flow at 200-700mb while Felix is well below 940mb of pressure.

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