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Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 384
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: LoisCane]
      #85171 - Wed Sep 24 2008 02:52 AM

I see no evidence of a westward component to movement at this time. Upper low to the systems ENE and deep longwave trough to its NW and evolving cyclogenesis (extratropical low) off the Mid Atlantic and upper high south of TX and northerly winds aloft imply either a stationary movement or a slow trek north until an upper ridge becomes established east of the track and trough to the west; like Hanna. It's a mess upstairs right now with so many players involved.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 384
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: Raymond]
      #85172 - Wed Sep 24 2008 03:00 AM

Closest I can find other than PR is Cuba: http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB.../gpdMaxw01a.gif

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 384
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: Ed in Va]
      #85173 - Wed Sep 24 2008 03:10 AM

It's not unusual for developing tropical systems to have multiple centers or vortices at the surface and develop near and under deep convection. As for SC, the answer is no. This low will be extratropical from the word go. There has been some discussion that a few days down the road it may develop sub-tropical or hybrid characteristics, but it is not forecasted to remain over water and over water enough time. It takes several days for extratropical lows to acquire tropical characteristics; why? extratropical lows are cold core and deepen via baroclinic processes; differences in temperatures in air masses. Tropical lows are warm core and deepen is a pretty simple deal here, the ocean temperature. extratropical lows require upper air support to sustain them. Initially tropical systems begin shallow; they work their way from bottom up. Now if a extratropical low gets stranded and stays out over water for awhile, it can lose it's cold core and become warm, then you're in business.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: berrywr]
      #85174 - Wed Sep 24 2008 05:11 AM

Yes, the mess is slowly pulled to the north. I still believe, that we can see some slow consolidation of the current broad mess on the northward track north of Hispaniola and the developement of TS Kyle. But I have my strong doubts, that we see hurricane Kyle, as the hurricane modells still show. ECMWF continues to show no developement at all.
We`ll see, what will arrive in about 4 days at or near to the northern atlantic US coast.


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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 92
Loc: NC 36.34N 77.73W
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: berrywr]
      #85175 - Wed Sep 24 2008 07:51 AM

Part of Ral NWC forecast discussion:

MEANWHILE GFS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM MAY GAIN SOME
SUB-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT DEPICTS A WARM CORE AT 850MB BY
THIS EVENING INTO THU. GFS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS ALSO
STRENGTHENED WITH 850MB WINDS OF 60-70KTS PROJECTED FOR THE COASTAL
PLAIN BY DAYBREAK THU WITH 50-55KTS AT 925MB. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC FOR THURSDAY
MORNING.

IR sat. loop this morning almost has the look of something sub-tropical, although I doubt any warm core has started to develop. Either way interesting discussion and it would appear that here in Eastern NC will see just as much wind and rain if not more than we saw with Hannah.

--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
Hurricane Season 2010: 15/8/4


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