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Cristobal back in the Gulf, TS Warnings up from Morgan City to the Walton/Okaloosa county line.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 273 (Dorian) , Major: 604 (Michael) Florida - Any: 604 (Michael) Major: 604 (Michael)
21.4N 89.7W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1000mb
N at 13 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2008 Storm Forum

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Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
98L East Caribbean Forum
      #85245 - Sun Oct 12 2008 01:12 PM

As of around noon today, 98L has begun to grab a little more of my interest; both in terms of potential development and potential future motion. From my own satellite interpretation, I would estimate that a potential center point of "some" level of circulation exists around 14.9 and 67.3. On one hand, there seems little doubt that an overall appearance of high and mid cloud tops to the east of the wave access appear to be showing an overall gain in latitude. However I am seeing more evidence of what appears to be a low level center on the western edge of this blob, and curiously enough it appears to be moving at perhaps 280-290 degrees, or west to WNW. Given the recent slightly better organization, I have'nt had quite the duration of vis. satellite to really better determine this overall current motion, but simply what currently appears appearant to me now. What might be of greater importance however, is given the 20kt. shear, will this possible low level center simple be sheared apart leaving it to move off to the west and simply dissipate? The 200mb GFS from 12Z this morning certainly does weaken the shear and show the overall upper level winds becoming more anticyclonic in the central and west Caribbean as soon as about 24 hours from now. This would certainly provide better conditions for development ASSUMING that 1) this possible center of 98L remain below 17 latitude, and 2) that this possible center maintain itself as a potential dominent center.

Some models that I have looked at earlier this morning do show a short term WNW motion, with another camp of models tending toward a more immediate NW to NNW motion. At this time, practically all models still favor an overall recurvature towards the north near or over Puerto Rico, however will be very curious to see if by 0Z model run this evening, if they continue to have the same continuity. My guess in the short term is, that this possible center will continue to move WNW at about 5-10 mph, and models will be split on short term motion. Right now, I could'nt even imagine looking out beyond about 48 hours, because of the variable steering conditions that exist. It would seem possible however, that if a center point were to remain at or south of 17N, and continue to slowly move W to WNW, then in 48 hours or so, I could see it just nudging westward enough to then be somewhat caught under forecasted mid level ridging over the southeast CONUS. If that were to happen, then any immediate recurvature would seem unlikely, at least until reaching the longitude of where the next short wave would eventually impact a bend towards the north, and eventually northeast.

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Re: 98L East Caribbean Forum [Re: weathernet]
      #85252 - Mon Oct 13 2008 09:13 AM

Well it certainly does appear that 98L is a borderline T.D. this morning. Early vis. satellite depicts a circulation at some level at or just above the surface, at about 15N and just west of the latest burst of convection. This would place the center near or just east of 70W, which I find interesting in that few if any of the models took this system as far west as 70 degrees. Given any increased data from recon later today, assuming that 98L will have deepened and tagged as a T.D., it will be curious to see if there will be any further divergence in the models with regards to future motion.

Other than climotology ( and perhaps the shallow BAM ), all models continue to want to "whiplash" this system back towards the NNE to NE ( near or perhaps just west of P.R. ). Given the anticipated deepening with somewhat lighter shear and more anticyclonic upper air, it would stand to reason that whatever "pull" is expected to occur from the downstream flow caused by a deepening and S.W. retrograding mid Atlantic cutoff low, MAY start to impart such a northward motion by perhaps tonight. This all said, the center of 98L has thus far continued to basically drift westward during the last 36 hours, and the only mystery to me is whether there exists much or any easterly steering component at the 500mb-850mb level. Best guess is that the models are more or less spot on, at least with regards to eventual motion, as whatever ridging that might exist over the S.E. CONUS and Western Greater Antilles, must not quite extend as far east as 70W longitude. Though unlikely, a continued West to WNW track to perhaps 73/74W, might provide ample distance from the progged mid level low to allow a slow continued motion towards the W. Caribbean, however its current slow motion at the moment would seem to make this unlikely at the time.

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