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Archives 2000s >> 2009 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3889
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Danny Weaker, Likely to Stay East of Land
      #86583 - Fri Aug 28 2009 06:53 AM

3PM Update 28 August 2009
Danny's low level circulation remains west of the convection, some low level showers are approaching the coastline of the Carolinas, but Danny is about to run up against a wall. A trough coming soon should move or obliterate anything left of Danny if it were not to move.

Original Update
Tropical Storm Danny is barely a Tropical Storm this morning, recon was only able to find borderline winds to support a Tropical Storm. It has some chances to strengthen a bit, but most likely it will remain a tropical storm.

It looks like North Carolina will be left with a Tropical Storm Watch, and it will not be upgraded to a warning based on the current forecast track. This track keeps it offshore until the Canadian Maratimes. Since most of the convection is to the east, it's fairly likely that coastal areas will not see much more than increased waves.



In the east Atlantic 94L is gradually getting better, it may become a depression late today or tomorrow if it continues to get better organized. The overall pattern and models place the odds that it too will stay out to sea, but it is still too early to be at all confident in that. If the storm stays weak, it is more likely to head further west.

Southeastern US Radar Mosaic

Canadian Hurricane Centre
Danny Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Danny


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Danny (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Danny (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Danny

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Danny
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Danny -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

94L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 94L


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Danny Weaker, Likely to Stay East of Land [Re: MikeC]
      #86588 - Fri Aug 28 2009 11:11 AM

Danny is no longer tilted. It's nearly completely disconnected from the mid/upper level structure. I really don't see how this system can remain viable for much longer. The LLC is even more removed from the major convection so far today.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6

Edited by MichaelA (Fri Aug 28 2009 11:12 AM)


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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 92
Loc: NC 36.34N 77.73W
Re: Danny Weaker, Likely to Stay East of Land [Re: MichaelA]
      #86589 - Fri Aug 28 2009 11:26 AM

I completely agree. The only way Danny holds on is if the LLC can somehow reform under the convection and even then the enviroment is probably just to hostile for it to maintain. If something does not change soon that LLC will be nothing more than a low lever swirl coming inland.

--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Danny Weaker, Likely to Stay East of Land [Re: MikeC]
      #86590 - Fri Aug 28 2009 11:31 AM

I just took a peek at the visible satellite loop ending at 28/1415Z and NHC is in a tough little pickle as to what to do other than continue to be on the side of caution. If I didn't know better you'd think this system deserves to be in the Pacific basin where this sort of stuff happens all the time, but I completely understand NHCs reasoning and the two other scenarios that are in play. It's that time of year and nothing can be discounted.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: Danny Weaker, Likely to Stay East of Land [Re: berrywr]
      #86591 - Fri Aug 28 2009 11:40 AM

Not exactly the TS you'd take home to meet mother, is he? I think he tried to go with the fishes, but they threw him back. Quite amusing to click on the forecast points vs the convection http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!

Edited by Ed in Va (Fri Aug 28 2009 11:44 AM)


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: Danny Weaker, Likely to Stay East of Land [Re: Ed in Va]
      #86593 - Fri Aug 28 2009 01:08 PM

Does look like some wrapping occuring on the south side. Hard to tell if it's with the current center or a new one trying to form to the east. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Danny Weaker, Likely to Stay East of Land [Re: berrywr]
      #86594 - Fri Aug 28 2009 01:58 PM

28/18Z - If ever anybody wanted to get a tutorial in determining what level clouds are; today is it. There is Danny's low level center and circulation completely exposed rotating counter-clock and the upper low with dry slot and its mid and upper level clouds rotating counter-clock right over the top Danny's western side of circulation and if Danny is a tropical storm this afternoon I'll be shocked.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Danny Weaker, Likely to Stay East of Land [Re: berrywr]
      #86595 - Fri Aug 28 2009 02:11 PM

URNT12 KNHC 281750
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052009
A. 28/17:31:40Z
B. 30 deg 04 min N
075 deg 42 min W
C. NA
D. 26 kt
E. 311 deg 63 nm
F. 047 deg 17 kt
G. 312 deg 26 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 23 C / 457 m
J. 25 C / 455 m
K. 22 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0805A DANNY OB 05
MAX FL WIND 17 KT NW QUAD 17:23:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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jkapust
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 5
Re: Danny Weaker, Likely to Stay East of Land [Re: berrywr]
      #86596 - Fri Aug 28 2009 02:26 PM

I am no expert but i am good at watching trends and seeing how they develop. I got banned from this forum for not being techincal enough and this was years ago.

However I wonder. The current LLC is in a area of dry air as seen on the water vapor loop, however in the last 7 hours it has been drifting west, and if it continues another 7 hours it will be on the fringe of the more moist air. Sure the forcast is to the N but i am not seeing any turns. If the LLC makes it another 8 hours or so to the west, it could reform using some of the more moist air. As far as I can tell without the convection involved overhead of the LLC the direction of the storm is less affected by the steering currents,and actually could maintain its heading. sure shear will come into play, but i hypothosize that if for the next 8 hours the LLC continues west, it can reform into a real TS and come barreling up the coast, perhaps actually hitting the cape. I am located in boston.


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Danny Weaker, Likely to Stay East of Land [Re: MikeC]
      #86602 - Fri Aug 28 2009 10:31 PM

29/0225Z - Yep, I do believe the upper low centered over GA/SC ejecting slowly east northeast this evening and it's associated winds aloft is my kind of meterological force field. Shortwave trough dragging it's surface cold front east will re-energize and deepen the longwave trough that has been persistent over the east much of this summer and bring some delightful below season temperatures to the SE USA. Turning to 94L, once it gets itself away to the ITCZ, I think she's good to go with upper highs across the entire Mid-Atlantic basin. Short of any weaknesses along the way; it's far enough south that all eyes will turn to her for the foreseeable future.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1023
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Danny no more [Re: berrywr]
      #86603 - Sat Aug 29 2009 08:14 AM

From 5am discussion:

...DANNY IS RAPIDLY BECOMING ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL LOW WHICH IS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CAROLINA.

IN FACT...THE PLANE TRAVERSED THE POSSIBLE LOCATION OF DANNY A COUPLE TIMES AND DID NOT FIND ANY SIGNIFICANT CYCLONIC WIND SHIFT NOR DID IT MEASURE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AT THE SURFACE.

...ADVISORIES ON DANNY HAVE BEEN TERMINATED AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.


Full discussion: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/290843.shtml


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Beach
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
With Danny Gone... [Re: Random Chaos]
      #86605 - Sat Aug 29 2009 12:23 PM

The area of disturbed weather seems to be up to something. ( 45W / 10 N )

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

The closest BOUY is at : 14N 46W

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 21.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 6.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.3 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.87 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.8 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.0 °F

Any thoughts...


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX 30.07N 95.51W
Re: With Danny Gone... [Re: Beach]
      #86606 - Sat Aug 29 2009 12:29 PM

I would suspect that if the convection continues to rebuild around the circulation as it is doing now, this will be raised at least back to "orange" status by the NHC, by the 8 pm tropical outlook today.


Rainbow IR

The system is also well stacked, lower and upper level circulation is all centered on the new convection that has popped up. It is in warm waters and low shear.

Lower/Upper Circulation


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