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Archives >> 2011 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 2856
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
94L Lounge
      #90289 - Mon May 30 2011 06:42 AM

The area a few folks have been talking about worth watching is in a typical location for early season storms. It's important to note there is nothing actually mildly organized there yet, it has been that long range models were showing something. Unfortunately the long range models are showing this all 5+ days out. Which means there is nothing there yet, and may well never will be, but it does show enough flags to monitor that area. But in all likelihood it is not going to develop, but until something actually materializes it's too early to really speculate.

What is can do is enhance chances for rain and keep the afternoon storm machine running in Florida.

GFS, Euro, and the CMC show something very long range (in the fantasy period). For those who want to delve into speculation, the highest likelihood is to go over Central America before it could get a chance to develop. The models mentioned above show another possibility of it curving north and east then south of Florida. It's enough for it to nudge the hype scale up a bit though. The models are more typical of an eastern Pacific system this time of year than Atlantic, which makes it more likely, to me anyway, that it won't do much.

Until (and if) something more concrete develops in the mid to late week (Best chance for "invest" with the new data), it's pure speculation.


Edited by MikeC (Sun Jun 05 2011 05:04 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Area Models showing in Southwest Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #90292 - Mon May 30 2011 12:23 PM

Seems all the tropical models are on to something in the western caribbean? NOGAPS has two systems of interest.. one in EPAC and other in Western Caribbean. CMC, GFS, and Euro show lower pressures in the Western Caribbean... with a low developing in moving north from the Panama area.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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weathernet
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Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: Area Models showing in Southwest Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #90295 - Tue May 31 2011 01:36 PM

Well, here we are - on the "eve" of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season. At this point, it is pretty much common knowledge that most of the models continue to try to evolve some surface low down in the Southwestern Caribbean during the next few days. I would assume that by tomorrow, this area would be tagged as an "invest". I will be eager to then see how the GFDL and HWRF handle the system. Well, considering that this is the forecast lounge, figure I might as well throw my dart up on the board:
Friday/Saturday period will produce our season's first Tropical Depression. Given the pressure gradient winds might gust to T.S. intensity, overall broad circulation and moderate shear on the systems northern quadrant, will prevent an immediate upgrade to T.S. Then, am guessing the systems core will tighten/organize slightly, while still experiencing 15-20 knot shear, and late Saturday/Sunday first named tropical Storm of the season will form just off the S.W. coast of Jamaica. I would anticipate some flooding conditions in the mountain regions to occur given the relative slow motion of the system. I would guess that Arlene will not strengthen much further, and be short lived as a named storm ( given upper air conditions ).

Finally, this relatively weak early season storm will unlikely prove a memorable event ( from a meteorological perspective ) other than a possible precursor perhaps of where similar storm paths may traverse later during the season.


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MichaelA
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Reged: Thu
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Area Models showing in Southwest Caribbean [Re: weathernet]
      #90298 - Tue May 31 2011 02:51 PM

I don't see much of anything happening soon with the significant W to E shear that is present over the entire Atlantic basin. I'm wondering if the models are simply reacting to historical data for the most part.

--------------------
Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual: 13/2/0


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Area Models showing in Southwest Caribbean [Re: MichaelA]
      #90299 - Tue May 31 2011 03:22 PM

The shear is predicted to lessen by Thursday.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 808
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Area Models showing in Southwest Caribbean [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #90315 - Wed Jun 01 2011 11:55 AM

The shear appears to be abating over the SW Caribbean, but will it be too little, to late? Most of the models seem to be showing generally lower pressures in that region and try to develop a nearly stationary system in the short term. The HWRF (initialized on 93L) does develop a weak system moving NE from just North of Hispaniola into the Atlantic. I can't give much credence to that, either. It's still too early to tell one way or another.

--------------------
Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual: 13/2/0


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Wingman51
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.41N 81.24W
Re: Area Models showing in Southwest Caribbean [Re: MichaelA]
      #90326 - Thu Jun 02 2011 09:30 AM

CMC and Hrwf seem to be real bullish on development way out in the cycle - (144 hrs) - - will the shear have abated enough to allow for development?

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WesnWylie
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc: 32.59N 96.70W
Re: Area Models showing in Southwest Caribbean [Re: Wingman51]
      #90327 - Thu Jun 02 2011 12:03 PM

Shear is already on the decrease across the region, so the disturbance in the Caribbean should have a fair chance of tropical development by this weekend. The NHC already raised it from 10% to 20% with their latest outlook. I think it will have a decent shot (>30%) in a day or so. Unlike 93L, I don't foresee dry air being much of an issue for the Caribbean disturbance.

--------------------
2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01

Edited by WesnWylie (Thu Jun 02 2011 12:04 PM)


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