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Archives >> 2012 Forecast Lounge

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danielwAdministrator
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10 day GFS Forecast
      #92491 - Thu May 10 2012 11:11 PM

Dr Knabb at The Weather Channel has eluded to a Probable False System in the NW Caribbean Sea in the next 10 to 14 days.

The GFS model is trying to forecast a tropical system in the NW Caribbean in the next 10 days. While several of the models have a westward moving low/ trough/ thunderstorm complex in the Western Caribbean at the end of next week. The GFS extended model is trying to 'One Up' the others with a forecast vortice in the area of Jamaica and the Grand Cayman Islands.

I've looked at several model runs and indeed the signature is indicative of an organized area of thunderstorms. It is forecast to cross Cuba and move toward the Eastern Bahamas before joining another forecast Low off of the Carolina Coast. The two systems then exhibit a "Fujiwara" type effect and move off toward Nova Scotia.

Neither system is forecast below 1004 mb at this time. Rough estimate of 70 mph winds at the maximum.

Now back to ED in the Weather Center.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: 10 day GFS Forecast [Re: danielw]
      #92492 - Thu May 10 2012 11:56 PM

I didn't see it on the 18Z run through 7 days. A system will drop out of Arizona/New Mexico into southeast Texas and travel along the northern Gulf coast - but its non-tropical. This system should bring an increased chance for showers in Florida on Monday, but I don't see anything developing in the Caribbean Sea at this time.
ED


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scottsvb
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Re: 10 day GFS Forecast [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92500 - Sun May 13 2012 01:31 PM

Although anything can happen in 10 days.. It's just a guess past 120hrs (or less) unless both the GFS and ECMWF are on the same thing.
Can something develop by next weekend? Sure.. but right now anything past this Thurs isn't worth looking at.


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M.A.
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Re: 10 day GFS Forecast [Re: scottsvb]
      #92678 - Tue Jun 12 2012 07:45 AM

A couple of models are picking up something developing off the coast of Nicarauga and pushing it north, at the 144h of the NGP it has it off the southern tip of Florida and looks to be fairly strong. Something to keep an eye on.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 10 day GFS Forecast [Re: M.A.]
      #92680 - Thu Jun 14 2012 01:04 PM

Multiple long range models are hinting at a possible system in the Western Caribbean in the next week. Although I haven't seen any strong indications of a strong system. The CMC and GFS are hinting at a 850 mb level vortice. This would be near the 5,000 ft above sea level altitude.

Both the New Orleans,LA and Jackson,MS morning Area Forecast Discussion mention the possibility of tropical development in the W Caribbean or Bay of Campeche areas.

Further mention is in the Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion.
FXUS02 KWNH 141144
PREEPD

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
741 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

VALID 12Z MON JUN 18 2012 - 12Z THU JUN 21 2012
edited~danielw
CURRENT MJO ENTERING PHASES 8 AND 1 CONTINUES SHOWING FAVORABLE
VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES AT H200 AND H850 OVER THE EASTERN
TROPICAL PACIFIC/ CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WRN CARRIBEAN/GLFMEX.
BROAD SCALE ANOMALOUS H850 WESTERLY FLOW IN THE TROPICAL EPAC
SUPPORTS DOWNSTREAM BROAD SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER TEH
WESTERN CARRIBEAN AND GULFMEX AIDING IN POTENTIAL TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING VARIOUS FORMS OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN BOTH THE EPAC AND WRN CARIB/LOWER GLFMEX
BASINS AND EXPECT THAT SOME FORM OF TROPICAL DVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
OR BEGIN TO OCCUR LATE PERIOD OR THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

All of the MJO forecasts that I have viewed indicate some development in the Western Caribbean in the next week.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/index.php


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: 10 day GFS Forecast [Re: danielw]
      #92681 - Thu Jun 14 2012 11:23 PM

It's true that some of the models keep hinting at an "end of cycle" development near or around Yucatan. Could happen but so far such little model consistancy. MJO "is" coming around and seemingly influential in Carlotta's development. In fact I am kind of surmising that those lower pressures that you noticed at the 850mb level are ( or will be ) the extention of the broad mid to low level circulation of Carlotta after (1st??) landfall on the Mexican coast in a few days. Seems to me that heights will remain low down in the Southwestern and Western Caribbean. Couple this with what the Euro appears to show as a weak wave at about 180-216 hour migrating westward across the south central Caribbean and who knows?

Unspecific to the near term, I am a little taken aback at how conditions across the Atlantic have evolved over the recent couple of weeks. It is of course to be expected over time that SST's would warm, that the 200mb westerly shear should weaken, and subtle changes to overall steering flow would occur.

Models would seem to indicate a significant long wave shift with the trough appearing to be setting up near the central plains. In perhaps 126 hours, the outright westerlies seem to quickly transform into a East Coast TUTT with a couple shear zones traversing across the Caribbean, yet only to quickly evolve further with evidence of significant ridging in the E. Atlantic. Even after the long range appears to drop a deep trough down the E. U.S. Seaboard, stronger ridging pushing in from the deep tropics looks to quickly bridge across the Antilles to a building ridge over the Southeast. Looks to me like a significant amount of relative short term transitional changes will be occuring in the upper atmosphere.

For the mid levels, even more interesting to me would be the changes that the GFS are indicating at the 500mb level. Regardless whether talking about the W. Caribbean or mid-Atlantic, recent steering at even the lower latitudes have been practically southerly or southwesterly. For the Easterlies to slowly transition would be typical. However for the first time this season, 72hr. GFS depicts a solid 594 ridge building westward in the E. Atlantic. Over time, not only does ridging establish itself across the Atlantic and Caribbean, but would appear to me that significant ridging will establish itself around 60W and further south than last year. Around 300 hour, solid ridging would appear to have extended from Africa westward all the way to the southern Plains. These long term forcast maps cannot be used for reliable day to day guidance, but assuming general consistantcy, can be usefull to anticipate overall large scale pattern evolution.

Then...., we have sea surface temps! Looking at NOAA/NCEP maps, it seems to me that a good deal of "Atlantic real estate" appears to be a good deal warmer than 1-2 weeks ago. No doubt nearly all the Caribbean and Gulf are at 28C, but to be sure I wanted to check out the most recent anomolies. It would appear that a good deal of the Central/Western Atlantic is a degree warmer than normal with the W. Gulf up to 2 degrees warmer. Colder than normal water exists off the African coast and much warmer than normal SST's oddly exist in the far North Atlantic and Canadian maritimes.

Finally, you throw in the anticipated impacts of a late summer El Nino and "now" try to look ahead into the crystal ball and attempt to figure it all out. What does it all mean? I'm rather stumped. I typically feel a strong "sense" of how the season will play out; maybe a WRONG (LOL) sense, but a feeling nonetheless.

My only sense of the season that I am sticking too, is with regard to areas of formation and general motion. I still think there will be few long tracks and area's of origin to occur in the Gulf, Caribbean, and perhaps within 10 degree's east of the Caribbean. Perhaps a good bit more activity impacting land than in recent years. I don't think El Nino will have a significant impact to the Atlantic season outside of perhaps supressing a bit of the season's late Oct./Nov. systems from forming.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
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Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: 10 day GFS Forecast [Re: weathernet]
      #92682 - Fri Jun 15 2012 11:53 AM

Thanks weathernet. Chatter is increasing about development in 144 hours. MJO is waxing favorable.

--------------------
doug


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
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Re: 10 day GFS Forecast [Re: doug]
      #92686 - Mon Jun 18 2012 07:52 AM

Just a quick look at the Caribbean this a.m. shows a good deal more convection in the far W. Caribbean. While I think the convection a bit farther east is transitory, am a slight bit curious about the 48-60 hr. GFS 200mb maps. While the more reliable EURO or GFS are NOT seemingly "bullish" on significant development and earlier models were hinting toward possible Bay of Campeche development, there looks to be some decent upper difluent conditions forecast to be in place in about 2 days.

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LoisCane
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Re: 10 day GFS Forecast [Re: weathernet]
      #92688 - Mon Jun 18 2012 12:02 PM

Thanks for the long discussion. I have a lot of the same questions and thoughts as well, especially on how much El Nino will really affect this season. Timing is everything.

The MJO on the other hand is a more compelling aspect of tropical development as it is here and moving into the Caribbean.

The models have been good at predicting the increased moisture in the Carib now, question remains where it goes and also IF anything develops in the Pacific as that will influence the flow in the Carib.

"difluent conditions" that's funny, I can see it beginning to happen this morning down in the Carib, just where models were hinting at development.

Several models persist in trying to close off something off the SE tip of Florida, others form something elsewhere.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation

A lot of talk and a lot of possibilities but we are still in wait and see mode.

MJO is the bird in the hand, what's in the bush is still hard to see.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
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Re: 10 day GFS Forecast [Re: LoisCane]
      #92699 - Wed Jun 20 2012 08:59 AM

6/20 06Z GFS closes off a feature late in the period in the W Central GOM and moves it NE across Florida.
This solution is discussed in the local discussion for W. Central Florida. The ECMWF keeps the feature as a trough and west of Florida.

--------------------
doug


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
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Re: 10 day GFS Forecast [Re: doug]
      #92700 - Wed Jun 20 2012 02:40 PM

The 12Z GFS 200 mb ( from this a.m ), depicts the 30-40kt. upper level winds near and to the north of Yucatan to abate at the 30hr. forecast point. In fact, there would appear to be a fairly conducive anticyclone situated near or off the Yucatan at about that time.

Meanwhile, satelite depicts a large area of persistant convection South of Cuba and stretching northward where a surface trough continues to become more pronounced. Upper level winds near and west of Key West are certainly not conducive for development, though surface pressures may continue to slowly fall over this diffuse and large area stretching down into the Caribbean. Of more interest to me is what appears to be a small mid level circulation over the N.E. tip of Yucatan. If not for land, upper air conditions for the very small area would appear to be more favorable for possible near term development. If this "swirl" were to steadily move north it would seem to encounter the more hostile conditions. However if this feature were to remain very close to its present latitude, than present conditions might not be so adverse. Perhaps bigger issue than even the ( relativly flat ) land, might be inflow issues caused by the broad trough of low pressure to its east.

Still, given the very tight size of this feature and assuming its integrity and maintained convection, I think that it would not be unreasonable to have another "small feature" tropical depression form perhaps immediately west or northwest of the Yucatan coast in the next day or two. I beleive that such a system could remain stationary for a couple days, and potentially develop further as the upper air conditions improve between 24-36 hr. from now.
Though I would not necessarily be too much more bullish than NHC's 20% likelihood for 48hr tropical cyclone developement, the Eastern area of convection that they are focused on would seem to me to have more of an "uphill fight" to organize given its overall large size.


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doug
Weather Analyst


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Re: 10 day GFS Forecast [Re: weathernet]
      #92701 - Wed Jun 20 2012 03:10 PM

The current visible sat. loop is suggestive of a surface cyclonic circulation around 23./82-83 beginning to become evident. Very early...

--------------------
doug


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


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Re: 10 day GFS Forecast [Re: weathernet]
      #92702 - Thu Jun 21 2012 03:40 AM

0Z Euro is now on board with deepening the Yucatan low, and more worrisome is that the depiction of the systems would appear to approach Cat.2 ( possibly stronger). Much still needs to happen including an outright stall for a couple days. Such is what I was concerned about. Reminds me a little of Hurricane Elena in '85. Trough was slowly lifting, & eventually gave way to an impressive ridge which in turn pushed Elena back westward.

I will be surprised if this disturbed area is not designated as "an Invest" by mid a.m. I think it prudent for all those between Tampa and Houston to keep abreast. Seems like nothing is going to happen all too fast however. I don't think this will approach the Cat. 3 intensity that Elena did, however this system would appear to me to have a conderably larger envelope thus having the potential to cause storm surge issues and flooding to a fairly large piece of real estate. Am kinda "feeling Gulfport" at the moment.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 10 day GFS Forecast [Re: weathernet]
      #92703 - Thu Jun 21 2012 08:18 AM

Yesterday's
TCPOD Hurricane Hunter Flight planner...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
0845 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-033

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 22/1800Z NEAR 24.0N 89.0W


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: 10 day GFS Forecast [Re: weathernet]
      #92704 - Thu Jun 21 2012 09:01 AM

I see where you're going with the Elena comparison ... however Elena was way later in the year, late August and the water in the Gulf would support that then...not as much now. Anything's possible, or relatively anything this particular year ....however support of a Cat 2 seems weak. That said, Cat 1 Hurricane is possible.

The steering currents are very transitional right now. We are swinging from unseasonably cool to extremely hot, fronts can come down stronger or bomb out during this current weather period.

Climo would say west towards Texas or NW Florida. Tampa is a long shot, but does bear watching.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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doug
Weather Analyst


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Re: 10 day GFS Forecast [Re: LoisCane]
      #92706 - Thu Jun 21 2012 11:00 AM

The entire dynamic has changed considerably since yesterday at this time. Whereas the EGOM was dominated by the ULL over GA yesterday which created hostile upper flow, the atmosphere over the disturbance this A.M is evidencing an upper anti-cyclonic flow as the ULL lifts out. There is some evidence of a low level cyclonic circulation immediately N of the Yucatan at 22.5/87. Certainly the convection south and east of this position is being enhanced this morning. I would not at all be surprised that chances for development increase to moderate levels in the 2:00p.m. TWO and an "invest" established soon.

--------------------
doug


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NPR16
Verified CFHC User


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Re: 10 day GFS Forecast [Re: doug]
      #92707 - Thu Jun 21 2012 11:47 AM

I agree. It may also mean a new center may try to form. This has been a broad area of Low pressure and now it seems like the ULL is moving away which may mean Chris by tomorrow......I mean Debby:)


--------------------
Visit ABC ACTION NEWS WEATHER CHAT usually @7pm daily http://www.abcactionnews.com/generic/wea...ws-weather-team

Edited by NPR16 (Thu Jun 21 2012 11:49 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 10 day GFS Forecast [Re: doug]
      #92708 - Thu Jun 21 2012 11:52 AM

Quote:

The entire dynamic has changed considerably since yesterday at this time. Whereas the EGOM was dominated by the ULL over GA yesterday which created hostile upper flow, the atmosphere over the disturbance this A.M is evidencing an upper anti-cyclonic flow as the ULL lifts out. There is some evidence of a low level cyclonic circulation immediately N of the Yucatan at 22.5/87. Certainly the convection south and east of this position is being enhanced this morning. I would not at all be surprised that chances for development increase to moderate levels in the 2:00p.m. TWO and an "invest" established soon.




Wow, You are spot on with the locations.
Jury is still out on whether we will see one or two areas develop and where they may be.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1208
Loc: South Florida
Re: 10 day GFS Forecast [Re: danielw]
      #92709 - Thu Jun 21 2012 12:58 PM

Think it's coming together. What it will do is a bigger question and has more ramifications for some city down the line.

What are the main steering currents ...the ones more set in stone vs the ones intangible..

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 810
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: 10 day GFS Forecast [Re: LoisCane]
      #92710 - Thu Jun 21 2012 01:41 PM

I think what ever develops will exit NE'd. The keys to watch are the short wave across the lower midwest and the ULL over northern Mexico, and how far north the system drifts in the next 48 hours...

--------------------
doug


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