Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


The 2021 Altantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2021. 2020 is officially over, but still a 30% chance area lingers.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 175 (Zeta) , Major: 238 (Laura) Florida - Any: 924 (Michael) Major: 924 (Michael)
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives 2010s >> 2012 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | >> (show all)
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Invest 90L Forecast Lounge
      #93930 - Wed Sep 05 2012 08:20 AM

Invest 90L located along the Alabama/Western Florida Gulf coast is moving south at about 15 knots. Early model runs suggest a continued south to south southwest movement. The system currently has a low chance for additional development on Wednesday and Thursday. SSTs of 29-30C. This is the place for your long range guesstimates on what this system will become (if anything) and where it might eventually go.
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 901
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #93931 - Wed Sep 05 2012 09:12 AM

The 00Z NGP model shows a weak system developing and, eventually, moving into the Tampa Bay area of Florida. I'm not holding my breath on that, though. It's simply too early to tell. If anything, it could be another rain maker for Florida if that scenario does play out.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 30/13/6


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 133
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #93937 - Wed Sep 05 2012 03:37 PM

Need to keep an eye on 90L at least FL. Not really concerned about a monster storm a TD/TS looks to be most likely with this system. It looks to be a higher confidence forecast with it being picked up and moved E/NE as a strong cold front for early September drops all the way through at least central FL. Looks to be mainly a rain maker for FL. But nonetheless will keep an eye on it.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 405
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: Joeyfl]
      #93938 - Wed Sep 05 2012 06:10 PM

I see most models have 90L heading east, over Central Florida. Not intensifying much, but bringing more rain to Central Florida. We can still use more rain here. The Lake Harris lake system in Lake County is still low, even after the rains from Isaac.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 405
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #93939 - Wed Sep 05 2012 06:16 PM

CMC model as of 09/05/2012 at 1816 EDT has it generating into something noticeable, for what that is worth.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 405
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #93940 - Wed Sep 05 2012 06:44 PM

Interesting radar signature from Mobile long range loop. Some degree of some spin there?

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 901
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #93941 - Wed Sep 05 2012 06:51 PM

It has some significant northerly shear over it right now with the convection displaced to the apparent LLC's south, so any intensification is going to be slow.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 30/13/6


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 133
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #93942 - Wed Sep 05 2012 09:08 PM

90L is going to be a rather slow developer if it does at all. I would say 50/50 right now. I feel confident that this gets maybe as strong as moderate TS at its highest. Cimss analysis wind shear shows 20-40 knot wind shear over the eastern Gulf/FL to east of the system, however it is dropping into an area of low shear 10 knots or less. So shear will not be as big of an issue I think as the dry air around the system will be. However as front/trough drop into the north Gulf this weekend shear will increase moving into the weekend when it will get picked up and shoved E and NE across FL.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
TXEB
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: Joeyfl]
      #93944 - Wed Sep 05 2012 09:41 PM

Don't take your eyes off of 90L until it is well dead. I am having nightmarish memories of TS Allison (June 2001). I was on an airplane that tried twice to land at IAH just as Allison was hitting Houston. It was an interesting night (and next day too).

While not commonplace, tropical cyclones can form amazingly fast in the northern GOM. Quoting from the NHC's Report on Allison, " No meaningful track and wind forecast statistics are available due to the limited period for which the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued forecasts. Since the system reached storm strength quickly, there was little warning lead time. A tropical storm warning was issued at 1900 UTC 05 June from Sargent, Texas eastward along the Gulf of Mexico coast to Morgan City, Louisiana. This was less than 3 hours before tropical storm force winds were reported along the upper Texas coast. "

FWIW - Allison left 41 dead in her wake (23 in TX), and a damage estimate of $4.8 billion for Houston alone.

(While this is good info, it would be better suited to the Hurricane History Forum.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Sep 06 2012 07:37 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 901
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: TXEB]
      #93945 - Wed Sep 05 2012 10:00 PM

A couple of the 18Z model runs (GFS and HWRF) are showing it merging with a frontal trough and tracking across north FL Sunday - Tuesday. That is also reflected in the surface forecasts from the NWS over the same period. Looking at the latest sat loops and long range radar loops along the northern Gulf coast, there is no longer any hint of a low level circulation this evening.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 30/13/6


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
TXEB
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #93946 - Wed Sep 05 2012 10:17 PM

Saw the same things in those models. CMC diverges a bit - develops the trough further north and seems to trap what would be 90L on the SE side of a ridge forecast to build from the NW US, allowing it to move across FL and possibly strengthen off the SE Atlantic coast.

Looking across those and the ECMWF, the bigger worry may become a wave that is forecast to come off Africa and turn into something starting ~Saturday morning.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 368
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #93947 - Thu Sep 06 2012 12:31 AM

Could the circulation be hiding under that blow up of convection? It seems odd to say it, but all of the sudden we need rain again here in Central Florida. Not a drop since Isaac until today and it missed me (by THAT much!).

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 405
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: TXEB]
      #93949 - Thu Sep 06 2012 06:28 AM

It looks like 90L is in and up for quite a different environnment than Allison in 2001. But we could use some serious rain here in Central Florida. This dry air that has been hanging over us for the last few days is unusual for this time of the year. We did have some rain here in Longwood, FL late yesterday evening however.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
TXEB
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #93951 - Thu Sep 06 2012 07:16 AM

Certainly 90L shouldn't be compared to Allison. The point I was trying to make, but did so poorly, is that along the northern Gulf coast, very serious storms can develop in very short order and with little forecast warning. It's a good idea to keep an eye on it.

By all the model forecasts I have seen, 90L isn't expected to do much of anything for the next couple of days if it sticks around that long, which appears unlikely.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: TXEB]
      #93952 - Thu Sep 06 2012 07:40 AM

90L has lost all of its tropical look since last night. It looks like a harmless thunderstorm no more threatening than the ones over land. There doesn't look like there is a center of circulation either unless its is tucked under the convection. I guess time will tell since it is supposed to slowly move toward Florida according to the weatherman out of Tampa Bay last night.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 992
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #93954 - Thu Sep 06 2012 09:19 AM

Actually there is a broad circulation to the NE of all the convection and there is some convection developing around this broad circulation. There is no doubt that this thing has the same DNA as Isaac because of its disorganized and displaced presentation. However, there is a circulation and associated convection in the GOM and it bears watching...especially if convection can develop and be sustained around the periphery of the actual circulaiton center...that's what to watch for...

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 901
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #93955 - Thu Sep 06 2012 09:36 AM

Yes, I'm beginning to see a rather broad and elongated low level circulation in the later frames of the Gulf RGB satellite loop this morning. The more robust convection is still displaced to the S and SW for now, but it looks like the shear is beginning to relax a bit. The system does bear watching as any system in the Gulf should be watched this time of year. Looking at the Central US water vapor loop, the upper level low NE of the Bahamas is beginning to lift out to the NE and the trough down the eastern seaboard is moving away from 90L leaving it between that trough and the frontal system that is well to its NW, so a continued southward drift seems plausible for the immediate future until that frontal system begins to approach the Gulf coast and begins to have its affect on 90L.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 30/13/6


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 901
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #93956 - Thu Sep 06 2012 12:24 PM

Shear is continuing to keep 90L from developing. There was a short period this AM that it looked like maybe it would acquire some minimal organization, but now it's looking not so likely.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 30/13/6


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 405
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #93957 - Thu Sep 06 2012 12:43 PM

In the latest RGB loop, is the LLC appearing closer to the NE quadrant of the convection?

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 901
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #93958 - Thu Sep 06 2012 12:54 PM

What was an apparent LLC seems to have been disrupted - located about 27.5N; 93.0W. It may be reforming just on the NE side of the convection near 27.4N; 93.5W, but the system is still very sheared.

EDIT: Subtract 5º W from the above coordinates.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 30/13/6

Edited by MichaelA (Thu Sep 06 2012 02:02 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 2 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 33825

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center