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Archives >> 2013 Storm Forum

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vpbob21
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 99
Loc: Ohio
Re: Outlook for 2013 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94335 - Fri May 31 2013 05:58 PM

I'll go with 17/8/4

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2562
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2013 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94336 - Fri May 31 2013 08:34 PM

We ended up with 31 participants this year - the highest number since 2008 - so the interest in this is still there and thanks to all who put their numbers into the pot. After stirring the pot, the average predictions were 17/9/4, i.e., expectations for a very busy season once again. We'll check the actual totals at the end of the season and see how well we did.
Cheers.
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2562
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Outlook for 2013 - Final Results [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94933 - Mon Nov 25 2013 12:54 PM

Well not exactly one of out better years for forecasting seasonal totals - matter of fact, it was our poorest performance but we were certainly not alone in our demise. The average seasonal forecast by CFHC Users was 17/9/4 and the actual result was 13/2/0 for a total error of -15.
TSR 15/8/3 = -11 and CSU 18/9/4 = -16

2013 was a slightly above average season for total named storms but way below average for the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes - and this was not an El Nino year. Using our normal scoring scheme, this is how well we did (or perhaps it shows how well we didn't ):

0 to -2 Outstanding - 0 forecasts
-3 to -4 Excellent - 0 forecasts
-5 to -6 Good - 0 forecasts
-7 to -8 Fair - 1 forecast
-9 to -15+ Hmmm - all the rest (30 forecasts)

The lower level of activity compared to the past three years and the minimal number of hurricanes combined to wipe out every forecast. The best score this year was B.C.Francis with -8. Joeyfl, MikeC and I all had -9 and all of those scores would normally be considered as a busted forecast. If I only scored the number of named storms, I was lucky enough to join CarolinaGurl and Joeyfl and hit the exact total of 13. B.C.Francis and gsand were close with 14. The forecast extremes ranged from 10/7/2 (-10) to 24/19/9 (-37).

Thanks to all of you who joined in the fun of our annual forecast activity - we'll try to do a little better next year.
Cheers,
ED


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