cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
|
Above: Most Recent Vis/IR Image of Invest 95L
A new disturbance is slowly developing in the northwestern Caribbean as of 9/16. This feature does not yet have an Invest tag, but could get one later today or tomorrow, at which time this post will be edited to reflect the Invest number.
Residual moisture and energy left in the wake of Hurricane Ingrid is interacting with a tropical wave. As of midday Thursday, 9/16, a vorticity max in the mid levels with an apparent reflection at the surface is located around 17.5N 88W, and moving generally in a wnw to nw direction.
Nearly all the major models at least hint at yet another tropical cyclone trying to form in or around the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this week, and so far it looks as if this NW Caribbean disturbance has the best shot, although some runs suggest that perhaps Ingrid's remains will loop back around into the Bay of Campeche, and either reform and/or merge with the feature. Additionally, there has been a persistent area of thunderstorms, associated with Ingrid's eastern flank, that remains over open water, just off the coast of Tampico, Mx.
This is where to put mid to long range thoughts on this feature's potential for further development, intensity, and forecast track. Longer range model output discussions are also appropriate here.
Edited to change title to reflect addition of Invest tag. Edited to swap out Western Atlantic IR with Invest 95L Floater. - Ciel
Edited by cieldumort (Tue Sep 17 2013 01:05 AM)
|
doug
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
|
|
Jeff Master's current comment injects a little cautionary advice regarding this system...he noted that in the next 72-96 hours an cold front will invade the NW GOM which could shunt the moisture of what ever forms off toward the NE. It is getting far enough along in the season for that type of scenario to occur, so there is, perhaps, a need for slightly elevated vigilance with this system for all along the Gulf coast.
Edit: The above views are shared in other reliable discussions as well and are refelectd in the most recent reliable model runs that suggest a shunting of the tropical moisture northeastward in 4-6 days.
--------------------
doug
Edited by doug (Tue Sep 17 2013 11:42 AM)
|
Owlguin
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 73
|
|
As a Florida resident, I am not liking what I am seeing on the latest model runs.
|
doug
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
|
|
It is hard to put any stock into what the models are saying right now, but there does seem to be some general agreement on two things:
The Yucatan/SW GOM/NW Carribean have been and are likely to continue to be areas of activity for the next week or two.
The present system's moisture/energy is depicted as spreading north and northeastward.
The and NAVY models develop the system, but the Euro and do not define a developed system yet.
Finally, no matter what occurs the present models suggest that additional energy is left behind in the SW GOM.
--------------------
doug
|
berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
|
|
Jeff Masters is looking at the same information the rest of us are looking at. The 850mb chart at 96 hours shows this system in the SW Gulf of Mexico where it could be picked up by the latter shortwave associated with the surface cold front. The loses it after 5 days and judging by the data I've looked at this afternoon this tropical system for the moment isn't projected to be that strong. It simply is unclear whether this system will take on a baroclinic low or a separate tropical identity. It's been somewhat dry of late over the SE USA as the region has been under NW flow aloft courtesy of the mid-continental ridge further west with troughing over the Eastern USA which has been commonplace throughout once again this tropical season making the upper level uninhabitable for tropical systems to its east. But as we roll towards autumn the westerlies begin to shift further southward and of course more major shortwaves and thus more cold fronts.
Courtesy of WPC Extended Forecast Discussion -
THE 17/00Z CYCLE DETERMINISTIC /ECMWF AND CANADIAN WERE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA UNTIL DAY
5 WITH THIS 'PROCESSION' OF CYCLONES AND THEIR ATTENDANT COLD
FRONTS TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES FROM OREGON TO MASSACHUSETTS (IN A GENERAL SENSE
ALONG/NORTH OF 40N LATITUDE). THE DIFFERENCES CROP UP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SEEPING SOUTHWARD OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND
THE COMPLEX TIMING AND THERMAL INTERACTION OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
SHEARING EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. CONVERSELY...THE
EAST COAST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS--HOW FIRMLY THESE COLD FRONTS CAN
DELINEATE THE 'CONTINENTAL' AIRMASS FROM THE MARITIME SUBTROPICAL
AIRMASS IN THE SOUTHEAST? ALONG THIS BENT...WILL THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION BE SUFFICIENT TO 'AGITATE' A BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL
FLOW REGIME ANCHORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN? THAT SAID... THE DETERMINISTIC AND
WERE GENERALLY GOOD FORECAST 'AIDS' IN DETERMINING THE STRUCTURE
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE TROPICAL GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN.
AM ANTICIPATING THAT SOME INTERACTION IS LIKELY THIS MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST WITH THE REMNANT/DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY (DAY 5 THROUGH
DAY 7) ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF.
--------------------
Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
|
StormMan
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 1
|
|
Can we have UKMET model runs, you know it totally nailed Ingrid's path several days ahead of time, would like to see what it thinks of 95L
(Post moved to a more appropriate Forum.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Sep 17 2013 10:38 PM)
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
95L doesn't appear to follow Ingrid into Mexico, rather it may stall in the bay of Campeche for a few days, and potentially strengthen or be dragged out (depending on which model you look), and then drift generally toward the northeast, either torn up, or rather organized.
This is something to watch through the week for sure along the entire Gulf, particularly the central to eastern Gulf into next week if something nudges it more east.. Models are suggesting it'll will stay put in the bay of Campeche a few days, and it may or may not miss a front that would be the kicker to the northeast and stream moisture over Florida.
This one will drag out and take a while to get a handle on, unfortunately.
|
Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
|
|
Here is a link that you can try. Keep in mind that model output is just an aid to developing a forecast - it is not the forecast itself. Some models perform well with certain storms and then fail miserably with the next storm.
UK Met Tropical Cyclone Model Output
ED
|
cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
|
Just as an FYI to all, the most recent UKMET "Invest 95L" run has actually been showing on the link (as an aside, many of these are external links, merely being mirrored/hosted on this website, and Flhurricane.com is not responsible for their content - or lack, thereof)...
I can easily see the confusion .. it looks as if that data perhaps transmitted in error, but it is not.. (SEE ED'S REPLY BELOW FOR FULL EXPLANATION)...
Another source for UKMET data: UKM analysis and forecast cyclone phase evolution
(Edited to remove any confusing, inaccurate information and redirect viewers to Ed's reply below)
Edited by cieldumort (Wed Sep 18 2013 01:21 AM)
|
Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
|
|
Let me try to clarify the UK Met Data Plot. It is not in error on the display. The UK Met output does not track Invests - it picks up the track at the point that a tropical cyclone forms in their model. In this case their model output does not anticipate tropical cyclone formation until the system gets much farther to the north. Hope this helps.
Guideline from their last model run:
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 25.5N 95.7W
ED
|
Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
|
|
If 95L can survive some shear and dry air for the next couple of days it could become a 'problem' system. Folks along the Gulf coast - especially the northern Gulf coast - should closely monitor the evolution and track of this system. I'm going to be interested in how future outputs of the HWRF model handle this system. The HWRF has been fairly good on track projections this year, but with intensity - not so much.
ED
|
doug
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
|
|
Watching how this might come together. I have been noticing that all the convection east of 85 west is more associated with the diffluence and all west of 85 is influenced by the circulation. The energy coming up from South America is also part of the diffluence on the western edge of the ridge covering the W. Carribean. As long as the system is weak this dynamic should hold; but, now with the center emerging over water we will have to see if that can take control. If so there is plenty for it to work with.
--------------------
doug
Edited by doug (Wed Sep 18 2013 03:04 PM)
|
Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
|
|
Not much going on with this wave - looks rather weak and getting weaker. Windshear and some dry air is keeping development chances low and if ridging rebuilds in the Gulf it will move inland into Mexico.
ED
|
cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
|
The tiny circulation of 95L bumped up against the cold front pushing through south Texas early Saturday morning. However, based on Brownsville radar as well as microwave passes, the two did not initially merge, and 95L remained quite distinct for some time. The Invest area of low pressure did however start generating deep convection in response to a solid baroclinic kick from the approaching front and associated upper level trough.
As of this reply, Sunday morning, Sept. 22, it appears based on conventional satellite and microwave imagery that 95L has now merged with the front, and that this merger has resulted in the formation of a more vigorous frontal low. Maximum sustained winds indicated by a 1233Z Windsat pass were mostly in the 20-30 knot range, with some gusts in excess of 50 knots. This low is presently situated near 26N 93.5W, with movement to the east.
Several different model runs this past week were suggesting something of this nature taking place, with a merger then resulting in the development of a tropical cyclone while in the northern GOM this weekend into early next week, or while traversing the Gulf Stream later next week. Given that this low has been getting better organized and should have at least another day or two over very warm waters, it is possible that it spins off from the front and gets a name. The next name on the list for 2013 is Jerry.
|
Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
|
|
There is some serious dry air behind the front and some of it has already been entrained by the low. All of the robust convection of earlier today is gone as of 22/22Z. Windshear is expected to relax - but only a little - at best, a subtropical system but even the chances for that seem low.
ED
|
cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
|
What I find so remarkable, is that given 95L's incredible tenacity despite all the odds, and that this low has essentially behaved this way from its beginnings, any typical heart of a hurricane season would have likely seen it blow up into a longer-lived cat 1-5. Not the 2013 season. Looks like '13 so far has been 95L's very unlucky number.
Considering how much staying power the low has had, I continue to pay some attention to models which take it, or its energy transfer, off to the ENE, and develop it. Even the 12Z teases a potentially not very entertaining Sandy-esque scenario.
Bizarre year, showing yet again how still very little is known about tropical cyclones.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
