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Invest 97L has dropped to 30% chance of development over the next 5 days. Watching as it rapidly moves west over the Atlantic.
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Archives 2010s >> 2016 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumort
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Hawaii: Hur. Madeline
      #96675 - Sun Aug 28 2016 04:01 AM


Above: Tropical Storm Madeline (Right) and a strong Invest (Left)


Below: NHC Forecast Cone of Uncertainty Track for Madeline*

*Future updates will now be issued by CPHC


As of 8PM HST, one strong and sprawling Tropical Storm Madeline had made her way into the responsibility of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, CPHC.

As of this entry, the cyclone is moving toward the west- northwest at about 7 knots, with maximum sustained winds estimated at about 60 MPH. The official forecast calls for steady strengthening into a solid hurricane, and then passage though Hawaii as an intact strong tropical storm.

Potentially throwing a loop into the official forecast, a presently unnumbered Invest pushing towards the islands from the south is arguably substantially more significant than presently analyzed, and will need to be followed closely in its own right. However, steering currents suggest that it 'should' probably pull to the northwest and then west prior to gaining too much latitude. 'Should,' but not certain.

Edited to reflect upgrade to hurricane


Edited by cieldumort (Wed Aug 31 2016 06:08 AM)


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cieldumort
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Re: Hawaii Hurricane Madeline [Re: cieldumort]
      #96706 - Mon Aug 29 2016 04:30 AM



Madeline has intensified into a strong Cat 1 hurricane tonight, with maximum sustained winds estimated at 85MPH, which could be conservative.

Madeline, the unnumbered Invest ahead of her, and Lester bringing up the rear, all have trajectories that are putting the island chain at risk for at least flash flooding. Believe it or not, this part of the world is absolutely not accustomed to having to deal with tropical cyclones. The islands are basically teeny tiny dots in a very large ocean, and climatologically, the central Pacific just hasn't normally been the most favored place for tropical cyclones to occur.

Some of the islands may start to experience tropical storm conditions by mid-week, or even sooner if the Invest to their south develops and keeps heading north as it has been. At a minimum, this advance Invest feature may produce some rains that make the ground even more vulnerable to what Madeline, and perhaps Lester behind her, could have in store.


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cieldumort
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Re: Hawaii: Cat 3 Madeline [Re: cieldumort]
      #96718 - Mon Aug 29 2016 04:18 PM



Madeline is now a Major Hurricane, and continues tracking towards Hawaii. Additionally, Invest 92C south of the islands has been arguably 'callable' for the past 12 hours, and is tracking just west of north. This unofficial depression will likely send some wet weather a day or two in advance of Madeline, making the grounds even more primed for dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

As Madeline is significantly stronger than forecast, parts of the islands are now preparing for what could be their worst tropical cyclone conditions since infamous Hurricane Iniki (1992).


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cieldumort
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Re: Hawaii: Cat 3 Madeline [Re: cieldumort]
      #96726 - Mon Aug 29 2016 07:26 PM



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cieldumort
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Re: Hawaii: Cat 3 Madeline [Re: cieldumort]
      #96748 - Tue Aug 30 2016 02:41 PM

Overnight, Madeline joined the Cat 4 club, peaking out around 130 MPH. Since that time, the hurricane may have undergone an eyewall replacement cycle (speculation), and taken in a little bit of dry air (also speculation).

Recon has just made their first pass through the center of Madeline, and have found its pressure at 974mb with SFMR derived surface winds of up to 108 MPH*. The information is tentative, with more passes to come, but if correct this would make Madeline a formidable Cat 2 hurricane, down from Cat 4 last night.

*Edit: Second pass through from the northeast to southwest has found peak SFMR indicated 10-sec averaged winds of up to 132 MPH. More passes to come... It seems reasonable to assume that Madeline either completed an eyewall replacement cycle with minimal disruption, or actually never did, but rather went pinhole for a while.. (all speculation)



Edited by cieldumort (Tue Aug 30 2016 03:45 PM)


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cieldumort
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Re: Hawaii: Cat 3 Madeline [Re: cieldumort]
      #96767 - Tue Aug 30 2016 08:32 PM

A Hurricane Warning is now up for Hawaii County.
"A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion."

Madeline primary model plots as of 8/30 1800z

Image credit: K Emanuel, MIT. OFCL is the Official Forecast from CPHC


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Hawaii: Cat 3 Madeline [Re: cieldumort]
      #96777 - Tue Aug 30 2016 11:59 PM

From NWS Honolulu:

HURRICANE MADELINE LOCAL STATEMENT for Big Island North and East
Issued: 30 Aug 2016 12:27 pm HST
MAJOR HURRICANE MADELINE TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDSHURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECTNew information
Details for local weather and impacts from madeline have been added.
Situation overview
Hurricane madeline is forecast to approach the state from the east through tonight, with the latest Central Pacific Hurricane Center forecast bringing madeline very close to the Big Island Wednesday through early Thursday. Based on the current track, strong damaging winds and very heavy rainfall is likely across the Big Island. Any shift in the track to the north, could result in tropical storm conditions spreading into Maui county on Thursday. In addition to the heavy rain and strong winds, large and damaging surf is expected along east facing shores of the Big Island and the island of Maui. Surf will begin to rise this afternoon, and reach dangerous levels later tonight through Wednesday night.
Probability of tropical storm/hurricane conditions
The chance for hurricane conditions at Hilo is 10 percent, Kailua-Kona is 6 percent, and South Point is 23 percent. Also, the chance for tropical storm conditions at Hilo is 78 percent, at Kailua-Kona is 68 percent, and at South Point is 90 percent. These values are trending slightly up for the southern portion of the Big Island. The onset of tropical storm conditions could start as early as Wednesday morning. The onset of hurricane conditions could start as early as Wednesday evening.
Winds
Depending on the exact track of madeline, some areas could see winds as high as 60 to 80 mph with stronger gusts possible.

Winds this strong would be very dangerous and airborne debris could produce widespread damage. Any loose outdoor items would become projectiles, causing possible injury. Other possible wind damage would include, downed large trees and power lines, and significant roof and structure damage, especially to weaker structures.

Extensive damage to power lines and poles could result in widespread power outages that could last from several days to weeks.
Storm surge and storm tide
Large and damaging surf is expected along east facing shores. Surf will build this afternoon, and peak at 15 to 25 feet tonight through Wednesday night. Depending on the exact track of madeline, storm surge will range from 1 to 4 feet. The combination of storm surge and wave runup may cause significant coastal flooding and damage to coastal properties and infrastructure, including roadways. Powerful longshore and rip currents will be present at most beaches. Large breaking waves and strong currents may impact harbor entrances and channels causing challenging boat handling.
Inland flooding
A flash flood watch is in effect. Deep tropical moisture associated with the madeline will begin to impact the Big Island Wednesday morning, bringing the threat of heavy rainfall and flooding through late Thursday. Total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are possible, with isolated maximum amounts near 15 inches, especially over windward portions of the Big Island. This rainfall may lead to dangerous flash floods and mudslides. Refer to the watch for more details.
Precautionary/preparedness actions
For those under a warning, your preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. In a tropical cyclone, conditions can change quickly. Evacuate if directed to do so by local officials, or if your home is vulnerable to high winds or flooding. Cancel any beach activities until further notice. Persons living near the shore should be prepared to evacuate quickly should building surf threaten.

People under a watch should continue making preparations and listen for possible warnings.

Closely monitor NOAA weather radio or other local news outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the forecast.

Cover and secure windows and brace garage doors. Loose objects such as lawn furniture, garbage cans, and other items should be secured or stored indoors.

If evacuating, leave as soon as possible. Do not get stuck on the roads when the dangerous winds and heavy rains arrive.


ED


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Benny
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Re: Hawaii: Cat 3 Madeline [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #96814 - Wed Aug 31 2016 02:42 PM

Fortunately the cooler waters that tend to surround the Big Island, and in this case the shear, look like they will bring Madeline down to Cat 1 or high end TS as she approaches the coast, according to CPHC discussion. It's certainly unnerving every time one of these monsters gets wound up on the westward track into the Hawaiian islands.

Isselle took down many of the larger Albezia trees on the island, which were the real menace in that storm and knocked much of the power in Puna out for weeks. Let's hope it thinned them enough that this won't be as bad. TS winds are enough to take down huge branches and start taking out power lines, and a lot of the Big Island is very remote. Puna, Ka'u and South Kona look poised to take the brunt.

And many coastal areas, Pohiki and Kapoho in particular, haven't recovered from Isselle either just yet. That sea gets angry behind the big wind.


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