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Archives 2010s >> 2016 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Loc: Orlando, FL
Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau
      #97275 - Wed Oct 05 2016 06:31 AM

7PM EDT Update 6 October 2016
Eyewall reformation is occurring with Matthew, and still moving generally northwest on the forecast track. Bands of rain are already over much of Florida.


8AM EDT Update 6 October 2016

22mb of lowering in just the last 12 hours. Baring something unseen or unpredictable, Matthew is actually aiming for high-end Cat 4 to Cat 5 again. NHC 8AM Advisory has max winds still at 125, just like 5AM, but most recent recon data shows us 130-150 now just a few hundred feet above the surface, and these will likely soon start being seen at the surface.

-Ciel

5AM EDT Update 6 October 2016

In Florida, mere hours are left to complete any remaining preparations to protect life and property, as Hurricane Matthew nears ever closer while carving out a trail of pain, death and destruction wherever he goes.

Matthew is re-intensifying during these predawn hours, with Recon finding substantial pressure falls, and a sizeable area of hurricane-force winds. It is VERY likely that Matthew will be a HISTORIC major hurricane when striking and/or scraping along and/or inside of the Florida east coast.

Overnight winds have reportedly gusted into the 140s in the Bahamas, with more video evidence coming in of deadly storm surge overrunning well-built structures.

Know your threat levels. They may save your life, or the life of someone you love

-Ciel





11PM EDT Update 5 October 2016

Hurricane Matthew forecast to landfall on East Central Florida coast as a Category 4 hurricane.

A hurricane warning is now up Flagler/Volusia to FL/GA line (Fernandina Beach)
A Hurricane Watch has been issued north of Savannah River to Edisto Beach, South Carolina

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological service and other government officials in that country.

2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida. However, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane-force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in impacts are possible in the hurricane watch area in northern Florida and Georgia.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect South Carolina and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to determine what, if any, land areas might be directly affected by Matthew next week. At a minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast during the next several days.

4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation, but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in Florida and Georgia.

5PM EDT Update 5 October 2016

NHC now forecasts landfall in Brevard county for Matthew at cat 4, then riding the coast up through Flagler county.

Storm surge estimates are 5-8 feet from Sebastian Intelt to the Savannah river.

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the Bahamas. Please onsult statements from the meteorological service and other government officials in that country.

2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track
to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida.
However, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane-force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in impacts are
possible in the hurricane watch area in northern Florida and Georgia.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect South Carolina and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to determine what, if any, land areas might be directly affected by Matthew next
week. At a minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast during the next several
days.

4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation, but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in
Florida and Georgia.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward from Fernandina Beach to Savannah River.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Gulf Coast from north of Chokoloskee to Suwannee River.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
* North of Golden Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Flagler/Volusia county line to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chokoloskee to Suwannee River

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

11AM EDT Update 5 October 2016

Track slightly west, may come very near Cape Canaveral.

The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward from Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia county line.

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in portions of the hurricane warning areas in Cuba and the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other government officials in those countries.

2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida. However, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane-
force winds offshore.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to determine what, if any, land areas might be directly affected by Matthew next week. At a minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast during the next several days.

4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation, but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. Inaddition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas.


Original Update

Hurricane Matthew exited Cuba late last night and now is moving north to a more northwest track toward the Bahamas. The track remains unchanged since last night for Florida, only the points shifted 6 hours based on initial timing, it is still expected to come within 20 miles of the coastline, based on model trends it may be shifted slightly west toward Florida later today at 11AM again. From recon, Matthew did weaken a bit over Cuba because of land interaction, but is forecast to be a category 4 hurricane within 24 hours again. Coastal evacuations are likely to begin today in many counties along Florida. Please watch/listen to local media and officials for the most up to date local information.

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in portions of the warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other government officials in those countries.

2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to estimate impacts this far in advance. For example, only a small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore, while a small deviation to the right could keep all of the hurricane-force winds offshore. It will likely take
another day or so for the potential impacts of Matthew in the United States to clarify.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of Florida north of the current Hurricane Watch area, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther to the north. At a minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.

Additionally Tropical Storm Nicole is remaining out to sea in the Atlantic, and another area east of the Leewards has a low chance for development.


Let us know about how things are in your area related to Matthew in this thread.

Speculation on Matthew can be found in the Matthew Lounge.



Florida Emergency Management.
Florida Evacuation Zone Maps
Florida County Emergency Management websites
Guantanamo Bay Radar - Recording
Flhurricane Matthew Webcam and Radar Recordings

WindyTy flowing wind and wave maps

Matthew Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Matthew - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Matthew


stormplotthumb_14.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float14latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Matthew (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Matthew (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Matthew

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Matthew
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Matthew -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Caribbean Radar Mosaic Recording.

Webcams:

Juno Pier (Near West Palm)
Melbourne Beach Cam
Flhurricane Cocoa Canal Cam
Cocoa Beach Pier Surf Cam
Satellite Beach Cam
Port Canaveral Webcam

List of more Surfing Gator Webcam List

See other Matthew recordings http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animationlist.php?year=all&tag=Matthew+(2016)

Jamaica Storm Info/Media

Jamaica Radar

Jamaican Meteorological Service

Jamaica Observer

Jamaica Star

Jamaica CVM TV

Television Jamaica

Jamaica News Network

Jamaica Office of Disaster Preparedness & Emergency Management

Power 106.1 Jamaica Radio

> Bahamas Media

Bahamas Radar

Television & Radio:

ZNS Bahamas, Radio & TV

More 94 FM Bahamas

Newspapers:

Bahamas Tribune

Nassau Guardian

Bahamas B2B

The Abaconian - Abaco Island News

Freeport News

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA

Power Outage Maps: South Carolina Power Outage Map North Carolina Power Outage Map Virginia Power Outage Map

News Media (South Florida):

Television:

Newspapers:

News Radio:

Check local media and officials when a storm is approaching your area.

News Media (East Central Florida):

Television:

Newspapers:

News Radio:

Check local media and officials when a storm is approaching your area.

Jacksonville, FL Area Media:

MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4232
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #97277 - Wed Oct 05 2016 06:35 AM

Note, Mark Sudduth is on his way to Florida today to document Matthew, He'll be meeting up with Mike Watkins, I'll be meeting up with them later today in New Smyrna Beach where he'll likely set up a surge cam and observation station there. I'm preparing myself today, so updates will be fewer (from me, but others will be updating the site)

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #97293 - Wed Oct 05 2016 10:36 AM

Recon just found 960mb of pressure, storms definitely weaker than last night, but it is winding back up according to recon.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1165
Loc: fl
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #97294 - Wed Oct 05 2016 10:40 AM

Can we get Nassau Radar and Recording started? Thank you !

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas [Re: scottsvb]
      #97295 - Wed Oct 05 2016 10:44 AM

Quote:

Can we get Nassau Radar and Recording started? Thank you !




I don't have a reliable Nassau source.


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DeLandT
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 23
Loc: Parrish, FL
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #97296 - Wed Oct 05 2016 10:56 AM

Wanted to add Peace River Electrical Cooperative outage map which is south Central Florida from east of Bradenton, north of North Port to West of Palm Bay and Vero Beach:

http://outage.preco.coop/


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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 144
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #97300 - Wed Oct 05 2016 11:27 AM

Quote:

In New Smyrna Beach where he'll likely set up a surge cam and observation station there.




what kind of storm surge should we expect around New Smyrna Beach?
could you give us a rough range?
thanks!

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #97303 - Wed Oct 05 2016 11:44 AM

Here's the link for the projected storm surge map (larger if landfall occurs)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/153139.shtml?inundation#contents

For Most of NSB it's 3-6 ft, with wave action on top, thankfully the Atlantic coast is much less prone to surge than the Gulf. It could be closer to 8' if the core comes over NSB.


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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 144
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #97305 - Wed Oct 05 2016 11:54 AM

thank you very much, Mike, and stay safe!

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #97307 - Wed Oct 05 2016 12:48 PM

Strengthening....green is back.
Eye narrowing?

Funktop

--------------------
Matthew '16, Hermine '16, Colin '16, Bonnie '10, Fay '08, Wilma, '05, Katrina '05, Jeanne '04, Frances '04, Charley '04 in FTM (drove behind it), Bertha '96, Bob '91, The Blizzard of '78 in NH


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cieldumort
Moderator


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Posts: 1917
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Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #97314 - Wed Oct 05 2016 01:36 PM



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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #97315 - Wed Oct 05 2016 01:41 PM

on Funktop green is back in fashion and the size of the eye is contracting... as Matthew intensifies his wind field should expand making areas to the West and SW of him track more likely to have stronger winds... if this trend continues that is a problem for the S Florida Coast as well as further implications up the coast.

Long loop tells the long story https://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+/48h/@AlfredSpellman

Floater tells the now of the storm.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/imagery/ft_lalo-animated.gif

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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kapSt.Cloud
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 30
Loc: Long Beach, MS
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas [Re: LoisCane]
      #97318 - Wed Oct 05 2016 02:16 PM

Is the GFS model reliable? It's tracking Matthew to ride the coast of Florida north to South Carolina. Then it veers eastward, does a loop to a projected path to hit Florida again, then into the Gulf!!

Quote:

Is the GFS model reliable? It's tracking Matthew to ride the coast of Florida north to South Carolina. Then it veers eastward, does a loop to a projected path to hit Florida again, then into the Gulf!!




Welcome new user. The GFS is a high quality model, and this track is very plausible, and also supported by several other models. On the main page we mostly stick to the first 48 hours, especially in an active event. Please feel free to discuss model runs out past 48 hours in the Matthew Forecast Lounge

-Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Wed Oct 05 2016 03:39 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas [Re: kapSt.Cloud]
      #97320 - Wed Oct 05 2016 03:05 PM

Mark Sudduth from http://www.hurricanetrack.com is on his way to Florida, see him riding around @ http://www.ustream.tv/hurricanetrack

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Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 199
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #97330 - Wed Oct 05 2016 04:56 PM

Quote:

Mark Sudduth from http://www.hurricanetrack.com is on his way to Florida, see him riding around @ http://www.ustream.tv/hurricanetrack





Hey Mike,

Been a while! (thank god).

Hard to believe that the SST's are as hot as they are going right down the range of Matthew. Hottest other than parts of the gulf or much more south. 86 degrees at K/West heading to mid October! I checked the directions so far and its 2-3 degrees hotter for almost the whole length of his meaningful run.


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #97332 - Wed Oct 05 2016 05:20 PM

still intensifying





Note: I have uploaded this image to our servers. Going forward, please upload a snapshot of any time-sensitive images, instead of hotlinking to sites that are constantly updating. Upload image to Flhurricane. Thanks. -Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Wed Oct 05 2016 06:45 PM)


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M.A.
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 104
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas [Re: LoisCane]
      #97334 - Wed Oct 05 2016 05:28 PM

The last frames of the Funktop or AVN look like an incredible blow up of convection wrapping around the entire northern side of the CDO but the eye seems to be getting less visible . Eyewall replacement cycle starting?

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Team getterdun
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 2
Loc: Tampa (SOG)
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas [Re: M.A.]
      #97355 - Wed Oct 05 2016 09:48 PM

Does anybody have a good link for up-to-minute sea bouy data in this storms' area? Wind speed and wave height, etc...

NDBC - You will want to click on their banner at the top for NHC updated coordinates. Also, at present, there are no buoy reports, most likely because there simply aren't any in its immediate vicinity and/or they are offline. Finally, please keep in mind that the main page is not for chatroom style discussion, so no need to reply to this. Stay safe. - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Wed Oct 05 2016 10:06 PM)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 818
Loc: hollywood,florida
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas [Re: M.A.]
      #97359 - Wed Oct 05 2016 10:44 PM

Quote:

The last frames of the Funktop or AVN look like an incredible blow up of convection wrapping around the entire northern side of the CDO but the eye seems to be getting less visible . Eyewall replacement cycle starting?




I believe that is exactly what is happening,not good.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #97362 - Wed Oct 05 2016 11:05 PM

Apologize for lack of specific updates today, been preoccupied with our own prep work.

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