Invest 93L system is well northeast of Bermuda and moving to the east northeast but it does have a good circulation and good outflow to the southwest. The 05/12Z Otis SST analysis indicates that the system is moving into a small area of ocean temperatures which are well above normal (but still cool at 26C). Shear in this area is nil and forecasted to remain very light for about another 18-24 hours. System has a good chance of becoming TD1, but that's about the extent of its development, as a frontal system and associated increasing shear, disrupts the cyclone late Saturday evening into Sunday morning. At that time, the system will also be exiting the warmer SST region. Weaker system (Invest 94L) closer to the Carolina coast is already fighting increasing shear. A small chance that 94L may slow down the front a little and give 93L a little more time to attempt to organize. Atlantic remains quite cool, El Nino is barely recognizable, upwelling off the northwest coast of South America over the past month has created a rather significant pool of cold SSTs, and the SSTs off the EAST coast of Africa remain below normal in an area that is normally a lot warmer. Global SST anomalies at 30N remain quite high - but thats about the only place. An oceanic bunch of mixed signals. We may get TD1, but the season as a whole still has a long way to go.
Cheers,
ED
(edited to include 94L)
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