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Archives >> 2016 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1404
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Hur. Otto Forecast Lounge
      #97556 - Sun Nov 13 2016 11:11 PM


Above: Convectively active tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Nov 13, 2016 10:15PM CST

With some consistency, most models have been forecasting the development of an area of organized low pressure in the central Caribbean this coming week, and it now appears that this development could already be trying to get underway.

Deep convection is blowing up tonight around a SSW-NNE oriented surface trof centered in the general vicinity of 15N 80W and conditions are becoming favorable for tropical cyclone development. Movement is presently more or less stationary, but several models' runs suggest that once a developed tropical cyclone, the forecast cyclone will likely track northwest to northeast, potentially putting numerous locations at risk for a late season named tropical cyclone.

This area is not yet Invest tagged, but the title will be updated as warranted.

The title has been updated to reflect the addition of Invest tag 90L > Updated to TD SIXTEEN > TS Otto

Edited by cieldumort (Tue Nov 22 2016 09:47 PM)


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 131
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: New Caribbean Low [Re: cieldumort]
      #97557 - Mon Nov 14 2016 09:54 PM

Whatdayaknow...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MON NOV 14 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Cloudiness and thunderstorms have increased over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea in association with a broad area of low pressure that
is gradually forming across the region. Environmental conditions
are conducive for slow development of this disturbance during the
next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
late this week or over the weekend while the low drifts northward or
northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1404
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97558 - Tue Nov 15 2016 11:07 AM




Broad low pressure continues to develop slowly in the southwestern Caribbean with a 'center' presently analyzed to be located at 11.5N 77.5W but this is subject to change as the broad low is still very poorly defined, with multiple swirls.

The two more reliable global models, GFS and ECMWF, for the most part have been forecasting that this low becomes a tropical cyclone, possibly a strong one, by the end of the week, but differ on timing, intensity, location and direction. They will continue to struggle with this disturbance at least unless and until a true center forms.


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1404
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97563 - Wed Nov 16 2016 01:02 PM

This morning's 0z run of the ECMWF and its ensemble members mostly take 90L nowhere fast whether it has developed into a named storm or not, suggestive of the potential for severe flooding if the system ends up hanging around land.



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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1404
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97564 - Sun Nov 20 2016 03:48 AM

If shear could relax a little bit more, 90L should be able to consolidate a little better - and was very close during the morning hours of Saturday Nov 19 of doing so, and of being classifiable - but then it almost fell apart by evening.

As long as the low continues to battle shear and dry air, the more possible it becomes for one of the nearby competing lows to take prominence in the region. A few model runs actually develop two tropical cyclones out of this mess over the next 24-96 hours, with some even including a Fujiwhara effect for good measure.

At least as of predawn Sunday Nov 20, it still appears as if 90L will probably continue being the primary low in the region, with moderate odds of becoming a named storm provided it remains over water.



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